Let's Give Thanks; The Nation Is on the Rebound

Townhall.com ^ | November 27, 2014 | Matt Towery

[Kaslin]

Yes, there were the predictable riots in the streets of Ferguson, as thugs took advantage of the situation to loot stores and destroy property. And yes, our nation has suffered both from ill-conceived domestic policies and no real foreign policy over the past six years. Most of us haven't felt any personal "economic recovery" in our own pockets.

But contrary to my often doom-and-gloom outlook, I have reason to suggest that we give much thanks this holiday season, because things are looking up for America.

First, we have only two more years of Barack Obama. The American people have booted his Democratic Party out of both houses of Congress. His executive orders have become so transparently offensive that they now serve as fodder for "Saturday Night Live" skits. Then there was his post-Ferguson speech, which was seen by many on split-screen TV's that also showed looting and mayhem. Even as the president reminded us that only a "handful" of troublemakers exist, he was greeted by protesters gathering in front of the White House.

The damage from Obamacare and amnesty might not be reversed immediately, but overall, just like the Thanksgiving turkey, you can put a fork in this nightmare of an administration -- it's about done.

And the voice of the average American is once again gaining traction as the public shows a renewed hunger for the truth. Several weeks ago I reported on the cruel mistreatment of an American soldier. He was injured in the line of duty along with the military dog he served with in Afghanistan. The law required that the injured veteran be allowed to adopt his beloved combat dog, but higher ranking officials had sent the dog off to parts unknown.

Radio talk star Michael Savage and Fox News' Greta Van Susteren, among others, brought the story to light, and I am pleased to report that the veteran and his dog have been reunited. Americans are starting to regain their voice in spite of the filter of the old and crumbling media establishment.

And for once I actually believe our economy might hold promise for the average American.

Energy prices are extraordinarily low, and that is the equivalent of a reasonable raise in everyone's paycheck. The housing market is starting to come back to life, but not in any overly robust way. That's good because it is those roaring recoveries in housing that lead to land grabs and ultimately bubbles that explode all too quickly.

Interest rates remain low, and although the Fed keeps hinting at some minor increase in rates, the drop in oil prices along with a more tepid cost of living in general, suggests that rates won't increase much this next year.

Perhaps the biggest reason for confidence in the future of our economy is the fact that America is, for once, virtually "the only game in town" when it comes to places to invest and grow businesses. Europe is an economic wreck, as is Japan. Russia is struggling, and even mighty China is going through hard times.

Meanwhile, our GNP is actually starting to show some true strength.

Yes, consumers say they aren't quite as confident as we have expected, but that too can be a good thing. After the misery of the Great Recession, it might be that we are becoming a bit more like those who grew up during the Great Depression. That would make us more prudent spenders and investors and less likely to spend money we don't have.

It's ironic, the two segments of our society that are having the toughest time this go around.

One is Millennials, who clamored for an Obama presidency. They are finding employment difficult and debt challenging. And second, many African-Americans, who overwhelmingly still support the president, have seen their plight only worsen under the Obama years.

Time marches on, and the path for our youngest citizens will become easier as the coming expansion of our economy will likely center on the very talents Millennials uniquely possess, those centered around our rapidly changing world of technology.

As for African-Americans, particularly black males, the answers will take more time. But they won't be found in the ashes of Ferguson, or with a president who has offered them little more than rhetoric.

[jsanders2001]

I feel a resurgence of true patriotism and loathing of the left that is well deserved now than some of the former Obama supporters have snapped out of their spell and realize that the right was right all along...

[from occupied ga]

We're on the rebound? WHo knew? The turd in the white house is as lawless as ever. In fact he's doubling down. The Democrats as a whole learned NOTHING from their defeat.

The Republicans are a spineless as ever. The R's have promised no impeachment when impeachment would seem a lot more appropriate for the so-called "executive orders" by the emperor than slick Willie's not being able to keep it in his pants.

No one is reigning in the EPA, the ATF, etc.

What rebound? But I forget Towery is a Republican. As long as his party is in power, then it's all good to him. It's not like they have to do anything except get their share of the plunder

[bigbob]

The midterm elections alone are ample reason to be thankful

[MeshugeMikey]

Amen and Amen!

[reg45]

The Republicans would need at least 67 votes in the Senate in order to secure a conviction. Honestly, I don’t see that happening without a significant number of Democratic defections.

[CorporateStepsister]

I think the Dems will vote for a conviction since they are running scared themselves.

[CorporateStepsister]

I believe we’re on the rebound and rediscovering the value of our Constitution.

[hal ogen]

This is in spite of Clown Prince nobama and his commie minions and supporters. I only hope there are enough prisons to put them in soon. Have a great and pleasant Thanksgiving. America, a great nation...in spite of LIB asshats.

[CorporateStepsister]

Obama only accelerated a move to the right; we’ve been moving forward back to the sensible way of viewing reality (viewing life as it is and not what we want it to be) and to be blunt I am thankful for it, every bit of it. All the pain we’ve endured as a nation has been a chastisement and blessing.

[WilliamofCarmichael]

And for once I actually believe our economy might hold promise for the average American . . . Time marches on, and the path for our youngest citizens will become easier as the coming expansion of our economy will likely center on the very talents Millennials uniquely possess, those centered around our rapidly changing world of technology.

To me the article expresses something akin to the 20th Century business cycles that I remember from the '40s through the '80s.

Here's an outline of what the Bureau of Labor Statistics predicts.

I found the BLS information interesting and I think that it is germane.

This does not consider the latest Barack "immigration reform" blunders.

Labor force projections to 2022: the labor force participation rate continues to fall

Because of

• the decreasing labor force participation rate of
  • youths and
  • the prime age group,
• the overall labor force participation rate is expected to decline;
• the participation rates of older workers are projected to increase, but
• remain significantly lower than those of the prime age group;
• a combination of
  • a slower growth of the civilian noninstitutional population and
  • falling participation rates
• will lower labor force growth to a projected 0.5 percent annually.

The U.S. civilian labor force

• —the number of people working or looking for work—
• has gone through substantial changes in
  • its size and
  • demographic composition
• over the last half of the 20th century;
• during the 1970s and 1980s,
  • the labor force grew vigorously as women’s labor force participation rates surged and
  • the baby-boom generation entered the labor market;

However,

• the dynamic
  • demographic,
  • economic and,
  • social forces
• that once spurred the
  • level,
  • growth, and
  • composition
• of the labor force have changed and
• are now damping labor force growth.

The labor force participation rate of women, which peaked in 1999, has been on a declining trend. In addition, instead of entering the labor force,

• baby boomers are retiring in large numbers and
• exiting the workforce;
• once again, the baby-boom generation has become a generator of change,
• this time in its retirement.

Moreover,

• the jobless recovery of the 2001 recession,
• coupled with the severe economic impact of the 2007–2009 recession,
• caused disruptions in the labor market;
• in the first 12 years of the 21st century,
  • the growth of the population has slowed and
  • labor force participation rates generally have declined;
• as a result, labor force growth also has slowed.

(IMO the BLS is forbidden to include mention of the Barack blunders -- the real reason that six years later we are still "recovering".)

The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) projects that the next 10 years will bring about an aging labor force that is growing slowly, a declining overall labor force participation rate, and more diversity in the racial and ethnic composition of the labor force.

The U.S. labor force is

projected to reach 163.5 million in 2022¹ (See table 1);
• the labor force is anticipated to grow
  • by 8.5 million,
  • an annual growth rate of 0.5 percent,
• over the 2012–2022 period.

The growth in the labor force during 2012–2022 is projected to be smaller than in the previous 10-year period, 2002–2012, when the labor force grew by 10.1 million, a 0.7-percent annual growth rate.

Every 2 years, BLS projects labor force levels for the next 10 years. The present set of projections covers the 2012–2022 period and estimates the future size and composition of the labor force. The projection of the labor force is the first step in the BLS projection process in which the aggregate economy, industry output and employment, and occupational employment in the next 10 years are projected. Labor force growth is an important supply constraint on overall economic growth. The labor force projections are estimated by

• combining population projections calculated by the U.S. Census Bureau with
• the labor force participation rate projections developed by BLS;
• consequently,
  • the growth of the labor force is the result of simultaneous changes in the
  • civilian noninstitutional population and
  • the labor force participation rates of the various
  • gender,
  • age,
  • race, and
  • Hispanic origin groups.

According to the Census Bureau’s 2012 population projections,

• the U.S. population is expected to continue to grow slowly,
• to grow older, and
• to become more racially and ethnically diverse;²
• during the 2012–2022 period,
  • the growth of the labor force is anticipated to be due entirely to population growth,
  • as the overall labor force participation rate is expected to decrease from 63.7 percent in 2012 to 61.6 percent in 2022.

In order to carry out its projections,

• BLS analyzes and
• projects the labor force participation rates of
  • 136 different groups, including
    • the two genders,
    • 17 age groups, and
    • four race and ethnicity categories.

The basis of these projections is historical labor force participation trends in each of the various detailed categories, according to data provided by the BLS Current Population Survey (CPS) program³

Notes

Dedication: This 2012–2022 labor force projections article is dedicated to the memory of Howard N Fullerton, Jr., who was the senior demographic statistician in the BLS Office of Occupational Statistics and Employment Projections. Howard retired in 2003 after 42 years of federal government service. His many responsibilities included projecting the future demographics of the labor force. Howard was the author of numerous Monthly Labor Review articles on the labor force and was a key member of the office whose publications were always informative and widely read.

¹ The civilian labor force consists of employed and unemployed people actively seeking work, but does not include any Armed Forces personnel. Historical data for this series are from the Current Popula­tion Survey, conducted by the U.S. Census Bureau for the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

² See Population projections: 2012 national population projections (U.S. Census Bureau); and Newsroom: U.S. Census Bureau projections show a slower growing, older, more diverse nation a half century from now (U.S. Census Bureau, December 12, 2012)

³ The CPS, a monthly survey of households, is conducted by the Census Bureau for the BLS. The survey provides statistics on the employment and labor force status of the civilian noninstitutional population 16 years and older and is collected from a probability sample of approximately 60,000 households.