Japan's Demographic Nightmare Illustrated In An Exquisite GIF

Business Insider ^ | Nov. 19, 2014 | Shane Ferro

[iowamark]

Japan has a demographic problem, which has become an economic problem.

The population is gradually getting older, people are having fewer children, and the ratio between prime age workers and retirees is shrinking. That means less consumption, more fixed incomes, and a greater need for government benefits. Prime Minister Shinzo Abe has a steep uphill battle ahead of him when it comes to trying to grow GDP.

Jim Laird at Laird Research has a great post on his site showing what Japan's demographic changes look like visually (in addition to a few other countries). Notice that we're nowhere near the worst of it: the young working population is estimated to continue shrinking long into the future.

Contrast this with a growing country like Nigeria:

The thing about these broad demographic trends is that they have a lot of momentum behind them, and are therefore basically unchangeable in the medium term without major changes in immigration policy. Even if prime age workers in Japan started having many more children, it would be at least 25 years before the economy saw that benefit.

[iowamark]

Videos at the source.

[itsahoot]

And this boys and girls is why no one really cares about the open borders we need the youngins because we have killed all our off. The down side of course is they come with socialism in their genes.

[Vince Ferrer]

This isn't going to help:

The hyper-real robots that will replace receptionists, pop stars... and even sex dolls: Unnervingly human androids coming to a future very near you

[dr_lew]

... The down side of course is they come with socialism in their genes.

Strangely, this idiom has become popular in an age which denies the influence of biology. Of course, socialism is no more in their genes than it is in your genes or my genes. What is meant is that it is in their culture, or training. It's a strange thing to me.

[nathanbedford]

This is a reply from weeks ago:

…it is the countries which burden themselves with unproductive populations that will be disadvantaged in the new technological era. The more technologically advanced we become the less we will need human labor and the more top-heavy becomes a governing scheme which depends on a broad base of wage earners to support the sick and the elderly. This is not just because it is chasing one's tail to try to compensate for people getting old by having babies or by bringing in unskilled immigrants. That is only to borrow trouble for the future.

But the real problem is that wealth will not be created by the sweat of our brows or the strength of our backs but by robots and by artificial intelligence. So a system based on supporting the government through withholding or taxing wages is doomed to starve as the bulk of wealth is made by machines controlled by the savvy. Unwashed masses do not provide a solution but are in fact the problem.

This article seeks to tell Americans that the solution is to open the borders. While this particular solution is offensive to most conservatives, most conservatives will reflexively maintain that we must increase our population for economic health. This plays into the hands of the leftists.

The population of America has more than doubled in my lifetime and with every increase we lose liberty. Think about that the next time you are caught in a traffic jam, seek access to a national park, or run afoul of the zoning law or a conservation law. The reason you don't have the liberty to build on your property because there is a puddle on it is directly related to population density. Density is not a question of dividing all the acres in America by the number of people, is a question of dividing the desirable acres by the number of people, dividing the resources like water by the number of people (asks in California farmers) and watering down your vote.

Once these truths are accepted, the conservative realizes that to hold fast to the Ponzi scheme which is Social Security is to condemn the Republic to bankruptcy and to open the gates wide for the leftists to come in and control every facet of our lives. Knowing this, the true conservative will try to find ways of preserving liberty while recognizing that the production of wealth is changing from one basis to another. We have seen this several times in history as civilization moves from hunter gatherers to agriculture and from agriculture to the Industrial Revolution and from the Industrial Revolution to the digital age. Ask the crofters of Scotland or the tenant farmers of Ireland about what happens to people when these monumental changes in technology occur. We either are going to have violent upheavals, think of the peasants' revolts opposed by Martin Luther, the Luddites and their suppression, or the Dickensian world of the early Industrial Revolution in Britain to understand that technology will have its way.

We conservatives must find a way to harness that technology to liberty without engorging and the state in doing so.

[DB]

If it is there culture, which is my inclination, how is it they never learn from their repeated failures in such a short time span? Maybe the real cause is a serious cause and affect learning disability - to put it kindly...

[DB]

Sorry...

If it is their culture, ...

[Ken H]

I’d want my progeny to grow up in a place that was still Japan, even if they were poorer.

[itsahoot]

Of course, socialism is no more in their genes than it is in your genes or my genes.

Good grief s that all you find wrong with this tact? I know socialism is not genetic, it is a disease.

[ComputerGuy]

Can you teach a robot to be surly and belligerent? If so, my VA could use a few dozen.

[wastedyears]

The only Asuna I know of:

<3 Sword Art Online

[USFRIENDINVICTORIA]

IMHO, the problem is grossly overstated. Japan is just returning to a population level that it had sustained for centuries, before the population boom. They will do so, while retaining their monoculture. Meanwhile, in Western nations, we’re losing our own culture through massive immigration.

In addition to robotics, which some others have discussed here, the article fails to note that Japan is a “head office” economy. They don’t need to import tens of millions of young workers — they just open factories in the countries with surplus labour. The older people collectively control massive wealth — through pension plans, savings, etc. That wealth is being invested abroad, to build the factories where the young foreign workers will toil. The profits will be funneled back to Japan. Meanwhile, the African nations cited for their high growth rates, will remain economic under-performers.

IMHO, Japan will be just fine.

[MaxMax]

No patriotism, just money grabbers.

[wardaddy]

Hilarious

Were living Camp of the Saints literally right now and someone is fretting about Japans desire to maintain cultural integrity

I guess open borders will fix them too...

As America becomes just a biggest colder Brasil?....a piss hole with nice beaches and arses

I cannot believe that tonight of all nights conservatives would sorry about such “po-ha”....thats BZ slang

[wardaddy]

Hell yes...a Freeper with balls and sense

God bless you

[anton]

Very deceptive graphic. If they ran that video to 2090, one would see an utterly winning result for Japan. But, they think in centuries, we think in decades.

[fruser1]

“Japan” doesn’t have a problem here.

The Japanese government has a problem because it can’t fund itself through the Japanese people.

Socialism sucks, doesn’t it.

[ArcadeQuarters]

*ding* *ding* *ding* You win the internets. Each individual can produce enough to sustain himself through his life as well as contribute to society... if the created wealth is managed properly. Things tend to break down in socialist pyramid schemes.

[kearnyirish2]

This was best illustrated when a couple of years ago they said more white people had died than were born; without infusions of Third World populations, America is where Japan is.

[rbg81]

Yeah, I saw that too. The Japanese have a weird technology fetish that could drive them to extinction. While I doubt we’ll ever get as strange as them, we are not all that far behind.

The older I get, the more I suspect that there might be something about technology that destroys the human spirit. Maybe because it serves to insulate us from brutish reality. I dunno for sure, but it deserves some looking into.