Posted on 11/10/2014 6:31:14 AM PST by blam
Elena Holodny
November 10, 2014
A small firm that predicted the market crash back in 1929 is back with an ominous message.
According to Bloomberg, the Jerome Levy Forecasting center sees a 65% chance of a recession in 2015.
"Clearly the direction of most of the recent global economic news suggest movement toward a 2015 downturn," said David Levy, the chairman of the Jerome Levy Forecasting Center.
Levy's forecasts contrasts with the Wall Street consensus, which is confident growth will continue for years.
Back in 1929, Jerome Levy — grandfather of now chairman David Levy — "didn't like what he saw in his analysis of corporate profits" and rather impressively "sold his stocks before the October crash," reports Bloomberg.
(snip)
(Excerpt) Read more at businessinsider.com ...
"The stock market has once more confounded all expectations by resolving to NEW ALL TIME HIGHS, this at a time when most market commentators had convinced themselves for much of October that the Top was in and that a new bear market had begun that in fact many proclaimed was on the verge of a crash given the accelerating rate of decent, and October was not extraordinary for such has been the case for the WHOLE of 2014! for EVERY MONTH of this year was meant to mark and END to the stocks bull market! Where the greater the deviation from its high the more vocal the doom calls became."
Yeah....the Trivia Quiz game for Economics has 400 questions....
and 1,000 answers.
That's right. When the numbers look bad, the numbers are changed ("seasonally adjusted", that sort of thing). And when the numbers can't be changed, the method of analyzing the numbers is changed.
Having said that, charades can go on for a long long time.
Its the Federal Reserve and the money supply. The Fed, the Fed, the Fed.
The economy is still quite weak. If they start aggressively raising rates, hold on to your hat.
BTW, I predicted the crash in 1987, the drop 1998, and the six year peak of 2000.
I consider the source. Business Insider is like the National Enquirer when it comes to economics.
What it all comes down to in our economy and the Global economy in general is “Faith”. Faith that everything is either going well or if it is going worse than normal, that it will get better.
If that faith goes away or gets violently disrupted, aka “losing it all”, then the economy will crash and stay crashed until “faith” is restored.
What I see is that we are in a “FAITH” holding pattern and we are all looking for clues as to which way the economy is going to go. That means the economy and the “faith” holding it up are fragile. Which way is it going to go?
My own personal bet is that it is going to crash and we will end up in a world of hurt and the probability of CWII just will skyrocket at that point.
And then it will takes years... possibly decades before full faith is restored.
Globally the numbers look bleak. The US is the lone bright spot.
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Its the Federal Reserve and the money supply.
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The US looks somewhat OK because we are the best looking horse in the glue factory,, money is migrating our way... and yes it is the FED ... The Fed was founded in 1913 and crashed our economy in 1920 by manipulating our rates lower to assist England after WW1 ,,, then it crashed the economy again in 1929. The FED has been bleeding us with inflation ever since.
END THE FED ... their only purpose is to enslave us with debt and grab our assets... always has been and always will be.
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