New York Times Column: Why Polls Tend to Undercount Democrats

New York Times, The Upshot ^ | 10/30/2014 | Nate Cohn

[SeekAndFind]

Polls show that the Republicans have an advantage in the fight for control of the Senate. They lead in enough states to win control, and they have additional opportunities in North Carolina and New Hampshire to make up for potential upsets. As Election Day nears, Democratic hopes increasingly hinge on the possibility that the polls will simply prove wrong.

But that possibility is not far-fetched. The polls have generally underestimated Democrats in recent years, and there are reasons to think it could happen again.

In 2010, the polls underestimated the Democrats in every competitive Senate race by an average of 3.1 percentage points, based on data from The Huffington Post’s Pollster model. In 2012, pre-election polls underestimated President Obama in nine of the 10 battleground states by an average of 2 percentage points.

A couple of elections in which polls tilt slightly Republican aren’t enough to prove anything. The polls have erred before, only to prove fine over the longer term.

But the reasons to think that today’s polls underestimate Democrats are not based on just the last few years of results. They are also based on a fairly diverse set of methodological arguments, supported by extensive research, suggesting that many of today’s polls struggle to reach Democratic-leaning groups.

[KC_Conspirator]

Laughable.

[BenLurkin]

Bingo!

[longtermmemmory]

Historically have not pollsters OVERSAMPLED democrats based on the MYTH of more left wingers in the general population?

[PoloSec]

When a pollster makes a call and they answer Olah or whachyouwantsucka, they hang up and mark it democrat.

[RIghtwardHo]

Fascinating read and probably true to some extent ... even a great extent.

But here’s the thing. Scream all ya want about dead people, illegals voting in droves (they don’t) and all that is going to happen is that the FACTS of demographic shifts and election fraud (voting machines) are going to rob you of your once great Nation.

Been saying it fr years and that is EXACTLY what is happening.

[Don Corleone]

Chevy trunks full of premarked ballots generally do not respond to pollsters.

[Nip]

Based on the recent reports of electronic voting machines changing Republican Votes into Democratic Votes on their own (”It’s a calibration issue.”) I think the counts are accurate. It is just hard to predict the number of false votes that are going to be generated to ensure a Democratic win.

BTW - this has been going on since the 1960 Presidential Election. In fact it was such common knowledge that there were several photo-cartoon booklets showing a well dressed woman looking at her ballot and saying; “That’s nice my ballot is already filled out.” Remember effective humor is always based on established facts.

[MrB]

DING DING DING!

You can’t poll the fraudulent votes.

[NativeSon]

The Left is getting desperate if they have to shout Democrats are underrepresented in the polls.

or they are prepping the field (read:sheeple) for their massive voter fraud.

[Interesting Times]

This is ominous.

[Jack Hammer]

“As Election Day nears, Democratic hopes increasingly hinge on the possibility that the polls will simply prove wrong. But that possibility is not far-fetched.”

The polls always prove wrong when there’s a concerted - and illegal - effort to stuff the ballot boxes with spurious votes from illegals and other cheats, and the machinery of the votings machines is tampered with.

This election will be no different.

Indeed, given the massive unpopularity of Obama personally and the Democrats collectively, the Democrats will HAVE to engage in widespread cheating just to stay in the political game for the next two years.

Scrutinize close results ending in Democrat Party victories, and the evidence will become apparent that when they can’t win on the level, the Democrats will cheat their *sses off.

And the most bizarre part of it all?

No one in a position of authority seems to give a rat’s *ss.

[DoughtyOne]

Most polls I have observed over the last ten to twenty years, over canvas Democrats up front.  It's kind of a tough sell for them to explain why Democrats are under represented.

Seems like a damn lie to me.


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[C19fan]

Did the Lefties revive the unskewed poll website than many freepers cited during the 2012 election season? Sort of funny how the tables have turned and it is the Left now complaining about so-called systematic errors in polling.

[SES1066]

How many boxes in how many trunks?

[goldstategop]

If they can’t bus their low info voters to the polls and stuff ballot boxes, they’re in sorrier shape than I thought.

[fortheDeclaration]

The Times is trying to get the Democrats to vote in a losing effort to stem the loses.

The Democrats are going down hard next Tuesday.

[fortheDeclaration]

Exactly!

[Hattie]

I refuse to believe any of the polls. I will wait till Tuesday because the fraud is so widespread, no one can predict what will happen.

[FlingWingFlyer]

Appears to be the Slimes’ early attempt to explain next Tuesday’s ‘RAT voter fraud “miracle”.

[Rummyfan]

Obviously, dead voters can't participate in polls. Nor can boxes of pre-filled-out ballots of fictional voters (you know, those kept in reserve for when a couple thousand extra votes are needed in a recount).