Posted on 10/26/2014 2:14:31 AM PDT by afraidfortherepublic
Fall is in the air. The leaves are changing colors, football season is in full swing and people in battleground states are being inundated by candidates and commercials.
In Washington, the GOP is already breaking out the champagne. Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell is already measuring the drapes in the majority leader’s office.
The anticipation is that the Republican Party will sweep the midterm elections. The common wisdom is that the GOP will gain seats in the House of Representatives and more importantly take control of the Senate.
But not so fast.
Right now there are 45 Republicans in the Senate. There are 53 Democrats and two independents who caucus with the Democrats. To gain a majority, the Republicans need six seats.
The truth is they need more than that.
According to the latest from Real Clear Politics, the current split is 45 Democratic seats that are either not on the ballot or that are safe seats. There are 46 Republican seats that are either not on the ballot or safe. There are nine toss ups.
The Republicans need five of those to get a majority. The common wisdom so far has been that the GOP would get more than five. But among the toss up states are Kentucky, Georgia and Kansas. These states all have Republican incumbents and should be safe GOP seats. In Georgia, Sen. Saxby Chambliss is retiring but in Kansas Pat Roberts is running for re-election and in Kentucky Mr. McConnell is fighting for his political life.
Some of the states the GOP was supposed to pick up don’t look so good now. North Carolina is a toss up, where Democrat Sen. Kay Hagen was supposed to have no chance at reelection.
What happens if the GOP wins only five of those seats and...?
(Excerpt) Read more at washingtontimes.com ...
“Obama looses his excuse to rule by EO. “
The MSM will say Obama has a mandate.
The GOP leadership has to be forced every step of the way to do the right thing. They identify with the Democrats far more than the conservative base and will betray us at any opportunity. They would rather be a token opposition. Judas Goat, than legislate conservatively.
The list of potential turncoats is longer than just McCain. Consider Mukowski, Collins, Graham, and any moderate GOP Senator who has a mistress, substance abuse, or financial problem. Those NSA tapes and FBI files may prove extremely useful after the election.
2016 does not look like a good year for the Republican Party in Senate elections. Some “moderates” in purple states, perceiving vulnerability in 2016, might be persuaded by Reid they will be better off switching to the “winning” side in 2014, winning the accolades of the press and a promise of no primary opposition in 2016. Demographics is destiny and by 2016 there will be millions more newly enfranchised immigrants voting in swing states.
We must remember moderates have no deeply held convictions or loyalties. They will make political decisions based on self interest.
What would change with a GOP sweep? Democrat lite sucks as bad as democrat.
I don't see any speculation on a Reid surprise here. Then, why does this posting have this title?
It’s a FRee Republic “rule” to never change the title of an article when posting. Otherwise, our search feature doesn’t work.
The “surprise” is inferred by the look-back when the Democrats changed the rules of the Senate when the numbers were close in 2000 and then went on to persuade squishy Republicans to switch sides.
“Does Harry Reid have a November surprise?”
Yes, and it’s already in play. Dem’s will present it a voter turnout but it’s really stuffing the ballot box will multiple votes, illegals voting, dead people voting, etc. Consequently, Dem’s will win enough close elections to hold Senate.
Why would that be Reid's surprise this November?
Where does it say that in the Article?
Not a doubt in my mind.
The White House is now employing the 'low expectations' game. If the GOP failed to fulfill the MOST OPTIMISTIC projection, the MSM will trumpet that Obama has withstood his greatest challenge. Given that the 'Low Information Voter' gets what info they do get from the broadcast news of ABC/CBS/NBC who have the "what election?' strategy for the 2014 cycle, it would appear that, for them, they will go with even lower info than ever before! THUS ideal Democrat voters!
McCain is a numbskull, but I don't think he'd do that...
The current “ GOPES (gop elite snob)leadership” running the 2014 senate and house campaigns have learned nothing from 2012.Where the issues should have been the core belief and direction the country is going. In print it’s oversized coated stock 14pt type rock star puff pieces and pretty much the same in audio and video .Most of it emphasizing cumbyja otherwise the big smear especially by the hard socialists (democrats in name only). Anybody know what the background difference is between today and 1946 ? SOS ! No guts, no direction, no substance, and almost no difference...The late Col McCormack would call them “Me too Republicans” ...
The Sultan will rule by EO no matter who organizes the Senate. He can’t get his wishes through the House. He means to complete his Transformation inthe next two years, regardless.
That is why I was asking about the mysterious white buses now showing up in my State
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-chat/3219350/posts
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.