So have I. What is different this time is the political landscape. I guess there is close to 55-60% of nation's political leaders who would like to thrust a knife into the oil industry. During the big bust of the early '80's that was not the case. Add the facts, that (1)demand is not increasing at the same rate (on a percentage basis), (2) world economic dynamics are weak, and we "might" see a longer bear oil market than we think.
What is most ironic, is the majors (and mid caps for that matter) even 2 years ago were thinking being de-intergrated was the thing to do. Watch that change drastically, and those that did start squeeling when margins start their squeeze play.
I do not see a repeat collapse of the early '80's and $10/bbl oil though. $50-$60 is the absolute floor.
Thinking further, maybe $40-$50 sustained floor with $35 dips in a scorched earth scenario.
I think we are in pretty close agreement. I do not see and “absolute floor” though but doubt we see the $10 of years past. Quibbling perhaps even though I agree $50 to $60 is probably about as low as it will go. If we see even this $80ish much longer it will start knocking things down pretty soon. Already I am seeing some rig farming out going on as deals begin to fall apart. Investors have already become wary of raises for new shale programs just as Berman suggested they would in in April Zero Hedge interview. You have to experience something to really understand the gearing of it and they have now. It is not the cash machine they figured it would be. Probably especially now that they are seeing their JIBs come in for the full-up WI and the cost of declining production. The checks aren’t so big.
Harold Hamm has to say he believes things will just keep going on. He has everything to gain and nothing to lose. I’ve seen that before. We call it gambler’s ruin.