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I am reasonably confident that Boehner and McConnell would be fully ready to use reconciliation if they see a way forward. There are, however, two problems. Even if we win big this year, McConnell will have a very narrow majority in the Senate. The caucus is much more conservative than it used to be, but three or four weak sisters could still sell out the side. The left will give them every incentive to do so. Any Republicans who derail a big reconciliation bill will be MSM heroes of the week, and I'm sure they will get some tangible bones tossed their way as well in the way of home state projects. Obama can and will make this happen.

And even if the weak sisters hold firm and we pass an ideal reconciliation bill, Obama will presumably veto it. So we are right back to shutdown corral. This will get ugly. We need the signature of the president. So we need to take the Senate, hopefully this year, and hold the Senate in 2016 while electing a president.

The usual suspects will demand instant solutions which it is not in the power of Congress to deliver, and every tactical adjustment to arithmetical reality will be denounced as a sellout. Obama will spend the next two years poisoning the well and trying to set up a democrat win in '16. So: the great divide on the right will be between those who think 2014 is the endgame, and a shutdown is the solution, versus those who think 2016 is the endgame.

I don't like it, but 2016 is the correct call.