Posted on 10/18/2014 11:20:22 AM PDT by maggief
The first group of people exposed to Thomas Eric Duncan, the first person to die from Ebola in the United States, will no longer be considered at risk for the Ebola virus at 12 a.m. Monday.
After three weeks of isolation or self-monitoring, 47 people -- including Duncan's fiancee Louise Troh, her 13-year-old son and two nephews --- will be cleared and allowed to go on with their lives.
(Excerpt) Read more at nbcdfw.com ...
The nurses would have been in that sh!t up to their elbows. Literally.
The family was not THAT exposed. Do you really think they didn’t know what it was?
Branham said the university consulted with county health officials who said the CDC’s 21-day incubation period might not be accurate. She pointed to one study conducted by Drexel University that concluded there is a 12 percent chance that someone could be infected even after the 21-day quarantine. She also referred to a report from the World Health Organization that said Senegal had Ebola case findings after 42 days.
http://drexel.edu/now/archive/2014/October/Ebola-quarantine/
But looking more broadly at data from other Ebola outbreaks, in Congo in 1995 and recent reports from the outbreak in West Africa, the range of deviation is between 0.1 and 12 percent, according to Haas. This means that there could be up to a 12 percent chance that someone could be infected even after the 21-day quarantine.
“While the 21-day quarantine value, currently used, may have arisen from reasonable interpretation of early outbreak data, this work suggests reconsideration is in order and that 21 days might not be sufficiently protective of public health,” Haas said.
http://www.who.int/mediacentre/news/statements/2014/senegal-ends-ebola/en/
WHO congratulates Senegal on ending Ebola transmission
Statement
17 October 2014
EXCERPT
Senegal has maintained a high level of active “case finding” for 42 days – twice the maximum incubation period of Ebola virus disease – to detect possible unreported cases of infection.
Back at the apartment there is little doubt that Jallah knew he had it (she said she was learning about symptoms on TV). She probably told her kids not to touch. The other thing is that every patient is different in the amounts of virus they will shed given various symptoms. IOW, even if Duncan were vomiting a lot, it doesn't mean he was shedding a lot of virus in the vomit. He may have vomited into pillows and kept it from splashing around. There are many unknowable factors.
If you are exposed to less Ebola in the early stages, I wonder if it may take longer to build up in your body. So it may take longer than 21 days if you are exposed to a lower dose of Ebola.
Of course they knew what it was.
It does strike me as curious that the nurses were infected but no family members or other bystanders were. The family, the bystanders, and the nurses all would have been exposed to vomit, saliva, and air droplets, but only the nurses would have been exposed to with blood and waste. This suggests to me that the virus is in infectious concentrations the blood and the gut. In environments like the U.S., therefore, the disease might not be expected to spread as easily as in West Africa, where the sanitations standards are different.
I have a forbes link at post #14
...The ear is too small.
Sorry, didn’t see your links until after I posted mine.
Haven’t seen anything on Drudge.
People need to learn about the ‘Crouching Cough’ and the ‘Crouching Sneeze’.
When you are in a supermarket, etc or public place with other people, when you sneeze or cough you crouch down to the floor and hopefully cough or sneeze down into cupped hands or at worst into the carpet or ground.
I am glad they have not caught the virus. I will be honest, they have seemed like a pack of deceivers out to make a profit off this to me. But I would not wish ebola on anyone.
They should volunteer to donate blood, and be subject to medical research.
Nothing is ‘free’.
Just as the news comes out that the incubation period may actually be 40+ days for about 5% of the people exposed.
“If you are exposed to less Ebola in the early stages, I wonder if it may take longer to build up in your body. So it may take longer than 21 days”
My thoughts exactly.
Also, maybe they have a natural immunity.
Maybe Ofrah will plan an Ebola holiday show..free cars & hazmat suits for everyone!
Yes, could be longer. The 21 day curve (peak at about 5-6 days) is from Africa where their general health is different, and possibly compromised. The other factor is that 13% of the people don’t present a fever but get sick and show the other symptoms. We can’t be sure about anything, but we can get lucky and I think the family got lucky.
Anyone know how long it was between when Duncan helped the pregnant girl in Liberia and when he showed up at the hospital in Texas i.e. what was his incubation period?
FYI, the difference between the 21 day vs. the 42 day quarantine seems to be a statistical standard deviation. WHO is just warning the world that there is a 5% chance that Ebola may still be viable in the population with 21 day quarantine. The 42 day quarantine limits the probability to less than 2%. Question is are we comfortable with a 5% probability of that some one may still begin to show symptoms after 21 days.
http://www.who.int/mediacentre/news/ebola/14-october-2014/en/
The period of 42 days, with active case-finding in place, is twice the maximum incubation period for Ebola virus disease and is considered by WHO as sufficient to generate confidence in a declaration that an Ebola outbreak has ended.
Recent studies conducted in West Africa have demonstrated that 95% of confirmed cases have an incubation period in the range of 1 to 21 days; 98% have an incubation period that falls within the 1 to 42 day interval. WHO is therefore confident that detection of no new cases, with active surveillance in place, throughout this 42-day period means that an Ebola outbreak is indeed over.
“People remain infectious as long as their blood and body fluids, including semen and breast milk, contain the virus. Men who have recovered from the disease can still transmit the virus through their semen for up to 7 weeks after recovery from illness.”
I’m in favor of 99.9999 certainty when dealing with large populations....
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