2014 Midterms - Senate Fundraising Totals Are A Bad Sign For Democrats

FiveThirtyEight ^ | 10/16/2014 | Nate Silver

[Eccl 10:2]

But the latest numbers show Republican fundraising catching up with, and sometimes surpassing, Democratic totals in Iowa, Colorado and other key states.

[Eccl 10:2]

In Iowa, for example, Ernst raised $4.5 million in the third quarter, according to the Des Moines Register, considerably surpassing Braley’s total of $2.8 million. The third-quarter numbers were more even in Colorado — Gardner $4.3 million, Udall $4.0 million, according to the Denver Post — but a big improvement for Gardner over the lopsided numbers we’d seen previously. (Gardner began his campaign only in March of this year, which accounts for his slow start.)

In Arkansas, Republican Tom Cotton outraised Democratic incumbent Sen. Mark Pryor $3.9 million to $2.2 million in the third quarter. Republican David Perdue slightly outraised Michelle Nunn in Georgia, offsetting what had been an advantage for Nunn. In New Hampshire, the Republican candidate, Scott Brown, has been closing in the polls of late, and he also raised a pinch more ($3.6 millon) than Democratic incumbent Sen. Jeanne Shaheen ($3.5 million) in the third quarter.

[Cowboy Bob]

Every Republican Senate candidate should call on Obama to restrict travel from West Africa - and call on their Democratic oppora to to join them in the call. Put the Democrats on the spot - are they for America... Or Obama.

The choice is clear.

[bigbob]

Tom Harkin in Iowa is sitting on millions but even he won’t give it to the DSCC to spend on that turd Braley

[ncalburt]

exactly !

That moron Karl Rove s the reason why the Gop has nit been unified.
I heard that K street village idiot waffling on the topic.

He must be a DRat plant.

[Eva]

I am getting so that I can’t even stand to Rove’s face on TV.

[eartrumpet]

Do these predictions take into account voter fraud?

[ncalburt]

He has been dead wrong about everything .
Everything this clown says is the exact opposite.
He has to be a Rat plant !

[txhurl]

Did Silver forecast Cantor’s defeat?

If no, then he’s probably way underestimating TEA and Repub turnout for the mid-terms.

[Logical me]

Great, but if you are not hitting ads towards destroying the Democrat the money means nothing. Don’t soft peddle, hit hard and be don’t pull punches.

[going hot]

I sent bucks to Joni, and I live in CA.

[Eccl 10:2]

“Do these predictions take into account voter fraud?”

$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$

Yeah, that is the 900 pound gorilla in the room. All I can say is that Nate was probably more aware of its impact in the 2012 elections, which led to his projections being more accurate than the conservative pollsters back then. He was consistent in his projections in 2012.

This time, in 2014, I get the sense that Nate, if he hasn’t thrown in the towel already, has it bunched up in his hand, and his arm is cocked and ready to throw. His predicted percentage of Republican control is at 62.2% now and is rising with every iteration.

[txhurl]

You’re familiar with his Maroon 6 model, yes?

[Eccl 10:2]

“You’re familiar with his Maroon 6 model, yes?”

$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$

Yep. I was the one who started the thread here on it.

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/3213944/posts

[Vision Thing]

So Nate Silver is watching campaign fundraising in addition to polling data?

Since he’s in the business of establishing odds for political elections, campaign fundraising data seems like a reasonable metric for his calculations.

[txhurl]

So don’t you think the 62% chance, given polling since that model run, is a little low? Isn’t he forced to move to 85% or higher pretty soon?

[Eccl 10:2]

“So don’t you think the 62% chance, given polling since that model run, is a little low? Isn’t he forced to move to 85% or higher pretty soon?”

$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$

He recompiles his percentages virtually every day. I have developed great respect for his methodology, even when I don’t like his conclusions. If he is at 62%, there is very good reason for him to be at that number.

[Fightin Whitey]

to spend on that turd Braley

"I'm telling you I know the turd, and the turd's name is Bradley!"

[txhurl]

Some things models don’t incorporate give me hope:

How Big Money failed to rescue Eric Cantor

http://www.politico.com/story/2014/06/2014-virginia-primary-big-money-eric-cantor-107699.html

Trying to find some of the last minute polling in Brat v Cantor.

[Din Maker]

Don’t soft peddle, hit hard and be don’t pull punches.
____________________________________________________________

I watched the last NC Senate Debate on YouTube. The Hag was a nasty witch, as usual. Tillis had numerous opportunities to b**ch slap her and he didn’t.