Nate Silver has Greg Orman favored to win Kansas Senate Seat

Kansas City Star ^ | September 24, 2014 | Steve Kraske

[Din Maker]

Nate Silver has made a name for himself getting his presidential forecasts spot-on perfect. So when he speaks about U.S. Senate races, people listen.

His latest thinking on Kansas’ much-talked-about Senate race?

Independent Greg Orman has a 61 percent chance of beating Republican incumbent Pat Roberts. His expected winning margin is 3 percentage points.

Silver bases his predictions on all manner of polls and political data.

Despite his prediction in the Kansas race, Silver says Republicans have a 58.5 percent chance of winning a majority. And Democrats have a 41.5 percent chance of keeping their majority.

That goes against conventional wisdom, which suggests that if Roberts loses in Kansas, Republicans probabaly won’t regain control of the chamber.

[Wyatt's Torch]

Yes he is very good. It’s short sighted to dismiss his analytics. They are solid.

[Tulane]

Oh, I have told them...letters, votes in primaries for conservatives, etc. that stated, come general election time I agree with William F Buckley...vote for the most conservative...

[Zenot]

Roberts really burned a lot of conservatives here.
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Is that because of the “residency thing”

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That and the fact he refused to debate Wolf. He has yet to run a single ad on what he is “for”. He refuses to call out the weak knee establishment. He hasn’t even decried That in MS. There is nothing there to vote “for”. Just the same old GOPe, we are better than the Dems, line.

[lodi90]

My money’s on Cruz wanting the most R senators possible to defund and repeal zerocare.

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There is no evidence the GOP intends to fight to repeal Obamacare. This election was supposed about obamacare and the beltway GOP hardly ever mention it.

In fact, many of the big GOP donors love socialized medicine because it gets health care off their books. It’s a day dream to think the GOP will repeal it.

[rwfromkansas]

Roberts was wrong on one case, but otherwise has been good. The others, yes...awful.

[Din Maker]

I hope that the Tea Partiers and other true Conservatives will not vote for his old, wrinkled ass.

[Din Maker]

That’s the ticket, let’s argue over who gets the blame. That’s much more important than defeating Harry Reid.
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You are effin’ right it is. We don’t have to suck a** to people who hate us and want to destroy us because we are Conservative. Mitch McConnell, Thad Cochran, Haley Barbour, Lindsey Graham, John McCain...... they can all go to hell.

[Din Maker]

Losers always feel better when they win the argument.
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And RINOs always feel better when they can dupe stupid people who don’t have the balls to stand for anything, into voting for them time after time after time. Grow a pair dude.

[Din Maker]

....every lib GOP household (or Wolf supporters) in my area of NE Johnson County, KS, have bold "ORMAN" signs in their yards! I even know a number of them who've donated $$$ to his campaign!

Wow! So, some folks in Kansas do have a set of balls and are not afraid to tell the GOP Establishment, who hate Conservatives: "Eff you!" Good for them.

[zerosix]

Yep and they'd rather a very liberal Obama supporter get elected than someone supported by Ted Cruz, because he won against their guy in the primary.

Don't vote for someone some TEA Party leaders support in a primary, instead vote for a liberal nut who will vote for Reid, support any Obama Supreme Court nominee and stand behind Amnesty, to "teach the GOPe a lesson."

Makes total sense to me!

[ObamahatesPACoal]

Nate Silver said that many Republicans agree with Bush on immigration and it won’t derail Jeb.

That is a major issue. Pat Roberts has Kobach on his side. Roberts should get Jeff Sessions to campaign for him.

[ObamahatesPACoal]

Pat Roberts is better than 90 other Senators.

[Admin Moderator]

Stop the personal attacks and drop the prurient nicknames for politicians. It’s getting real old.

[1010RD]

The lesson in KS is:
1. Dems will do absolutely anything to win. Cheat, lie, steal anything.

2. The GOPe needs to make peace with conservatives.

[Din Maker]

The lesson in KS is:
1. Dems will do absolutely anything to win. Cheat, lie, steal anything.
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WOW! Sounds like the Republican Establishment in Mississippi.

[Din Maker]

If Pat Roberts went out tomorrow and rented a house somewhere in Kansas, and apologized to the people of that State HE WOULD WIN WITH 60 PERCENT OF THE VOTE.

[1035rep]

“Despite his prediction in the Kansas race, Silver says Republicans have a 58.5 percent chance of winning a majority.”

As of today he has it at 59.5 percent.

[1035rep]

+1

[Din Maker]

Cool. I expect we will win the Senate even if Roberts and McConnell lose. And, both stand a good chance of losing.

[1010RD]

They have a lot in common. They both represent the status quo, one, though, is much worse than the other. They both bear watching. The cause is small, not just smaller, government.