Posted on 09/24/2014 6:41:09 AM PDT by Din Maker
Nate Silver has made a name for himself getting his presidential forecasts spot-on perfect. So when he speaks about U.S. Senate races, people listen.
His latest thinking on Kansas’ much-talked-about Senate race?
Independent Greg Orman has a 61 percent chance of beating Republican incumbent Pat Roberts. His expected winning margin is 3 percentage points.
Silver bases his predictions on all manner of polls and political data.
Despite his prediction in the Kansas race, Silver says Republicans have a 58.5 percent chance of winning a majority. And Democrats have a 41.5 percent chance of keeping their majority.
That goes against conventional wisdom, which suggests that if Roberts loses in Kansas, Republicans probabaly won’t regain control of the chamber.
(Excerpt) Read more at kansascity.com ...
Think this might alert the GOP-e to the fact that cr@pping on a sizable portion of your base isn’t a good idea?
Nate Silver is overrated. In 2012 he got lucky by having an accurate prediction of an election result driven by a major factor he had no knowlege of: the collapse of Romney’s GOTV system (Orca) on the morning of election day.
Unless, of course, he had advance knowlege that Orca would collapse, and Romney would fall short on his GOTV effort ...
May McConnell’s foolish objective to “crush the TEA party” come back to bite him and the rest of the GOPe.
Actually, I think Silver is VERY good. Back in 2008 he absolutely nailed the Democrat primaries and I believe he was very strong on the 2008 and 2012 general elections.
His politics lean left, but he seems to always follow the math when it comes to projections.
Since the polls are very unreliable these days, Nat and a few others add to the polling data with some very sophisticated models based primary on demographic data and past voting patterns. He is very good and probably the best around for now.
I wonder how he is managing with this one. I would think that past voting patterns would be close to useless, with a phony Independent who is really a Democrat, an establishment Washingtonian who almost lost his primary large blocks of people who are very likely to vote some other way this time. The Freeper Harry Reid fan club will vote for Orman or stay at home, the liberal Republicans who elected Sebelius will vote for Orman, the Democrats will vote for Orman because they know that he is one of them, and the establishment Republicans together with the conservatives who haven’t jumped on the Harry Reid bandwagon will vote for Roberts. The Independents will be wishy washy as usual. I suppose that sort of analysis gives Silver his numbers.
That’ll teach ‘em won’t it? I hope everyone enjoys two more years of Harry Reid, and probably six more years as 2016 heavily favors the Democrats for the Senate.
I’ll go on record saying that Roberts will win this race. Independent candidates always poll higher than they actually receive come election day. Plus, there are 6 weeks between now and election day for Orman’s hidden past to come to light.
If the Senate swings back to Reid in 2016, what possible gains will be made in Obama’s final 2 years with a slight majority? I don’t have a Senate seat up this year in FL, so I have no say in this, but I really don’t think it makes much of a difference. It’s going to be a lame duck term with a narcissist fighting for his left-wing legacy. Nothing of any value get signed.
As far as judges, I don’t think the Supreme Court makeup will be impacted at all if there are 51 Republicans, we’ll still have 3+ defections for any nominee from Obama.
The only real excitement I have would be watching a defeated Reid. Sounds like he’d be back in 2 years anyway.
See post 7.
Time for all this “friendly fire” stuff ended with the Primaries. Now to quote Founding Father, “we now must hang together, or surely will hang separately”.
Battered wife syndrome is an ugly thing.
If the same people who called conservatives racist and used unethical attacks in public and privately are rewarded with more power, we are taking four steps backwards. Those that did this need to be removed at the ballot box.
Bump that. Playtime is over. Muscle out the RINOS once we regain power.
Class III - Senators Whose Terms of Service Expire in 2017
Class III terms run from the beginning of the 112th Congress on January 3, 2011, to the end of the 114th Congress on January 3, 2017. Senators in Class III were elected to office in the November 2010 general election, unless they took their seat through appointment or special election.
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Reid left the judicial nominee filibuster in place for SCOTUS appointees. And for all his faults McConnell has promised to put it back in place for all other nominees.
Which means that the requirement is 60 votes.
However with a Reid-controlled Senate he could nuke the filibuster for SCOTUS nominees too. Hard to see that happening with a GOP senate.
If the Senate swings back to Reid in 2016, what possible gains will be made in Obama’s final 2 years with a slight majority? I don’t have a Senate seat up this year in FL, so I have no say in this, but I really don’t think it makes much of a difference. It’s going to be a lame duck term with a narcissist fighting for his left-wing legacy. Nothing of any value get signed.
As far as judges, I don’t think the Supreme Court makeup will be impacted at all if there are 51 Republicans, we’ll still have 3+ defections for any nominee from Obama.
The only real excitement I have would be watching a defeated Reid. Sounds like he’d be back in 2 years anyway.
Spot on. Good summary.
The one thing the last 5 years have shown is that there will be no engaged opposition party to the obama agenda. Trying to scare conservatives RE judges is silly. Obama relishes a fight on judges. We’ve seen these Obama/GOP beltway battles before and know how it always ends: GOP surrender. With 2016 being a POTUS election year the GOP will once again be in tip toe mode and have zero interest in engaging Obama.
Despite the brow beatings of GOP party hobbyists there is really no reason for conservatives to bust their hinds so McConnell & co can get their precious committee chairs for two years.
The beltway GOP have shown not a shred of interest in defending my constitution rights. So I am just returning the favor with my non interest in supporting them. When the GOP decides to govern in a conservative manner and opposes the dem agenda substantively, I will be all in. Until then, adios.
The big difference is the advancement of Republicans, including some of the most Conservative of our Senators, into the chairmanships of the Senate. The chairs are the most powerful people in Washington, and they will set the agenda, control the business of the committees, and set the stage for action by the whole Senate. The current Reid practice of slipping liberal stealth legislation into must pass bills will cease. That alone is full justification for going all out to take the Senate. As you point out, 2016 favors the Democrats for the Senate races. We don’t want to start that cycle behind.
The notion that there is no difference between Republicans and Democrats is one of the most ludicrous things that I have heard in a very long time.
Reading and analyzing that list sends cold shivers up and down my spine. The GOP is going to have to play 11 men behind the ball in 2016. I say they hire Jose Marinho to run the Senate Camspaign Committee.
Nah, did the learn from 2006?
Rubbish. The blame will rest SQUARELY on the shoulders of the "moderate" GOPe who openly reject (or at least enable the rejection of) individual liberty, free markets and Constitutional. Blame the GOPe's decision to declared outright war on conservative voters and on their enablers including Ann Coulter and too many Freepers.
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