Scouter's Updated Ebola Model (Vanity)

Self | September 19, 2014 | Scouter

[null and void]

Eeeee-bolllll-aaaaaa ping!

Bring Out Your Dead

We’re gonna need

a bigger cart!

Post to me or FReep mail to be on/off the Bring Out Your Dead ping list.

The purpose of the “Bring Out Your Dead” ping list (formerly the “Ebola” ping list) is very early warning of emerging pandemics, as such it has a high false positive rate.

So far the false positive rate is 100%.

At some point we may well have a high mortality pandemic, and likely as not the “Bring Out Your Dead” threads will miss the beginning entirely.

*sigh* Such is life, and death...

[cuban leaf]

I believe it will get pretty bad, especially for those in Africa

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Kinda like Aids.

[11th_VA]

Pretty shocking numbers

[tet68]

My fear is that this is going to be much worse
than AIDS, I just don’t see “containment” as a
realistic tactic in this day and age.

If this stuff manages to reach modern society
we will find out how much of our society
is actually tribal, and for those that think
some how it will be different here, be prepared
for an awakening.

Read Defoe’s Journal of a Plague Year just for
starters. Yes I know this is not Plague but the
reactions of mankind will mostly be the same.

If this mutates, we may not have to worry about
over population as famine and disease will certainly
cut us back.

[ealgeone]

If this mutates, we may not have to worry about over population as famine and disease will certainly cut us back.

Isn't this the liberal fantasy?

[LurkingSince'98]

you forget that one person coming from Liberia with unsymptomatic Ebola changes the US graph from 0 to 1 - at which point it could go exponential here too.

[Smokin' Joe]

AIDS spread that far and killed this many this fast? Even without sexual contact?

Kinda not like AIDS.

[tet68]

If this mutates, we may not have to worry about over population as famine and disease will certainly cut us back.
Isn’t this the liberal fantasy?

It is, as long as it’s someone else doing the dying.

[Smokin' Joe]

Ping…

A link to this thread has been posted on the Ebola Surveillance Thread

[ealgeone]

very true.

[cuban leaf]

AIDS spread that far and killed this many this fast? Even without sexual contact?

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No. I was referring to the comment that it would be an “Africa” problem.

And for similar reasons. It’s not just the luck of the draw that Africa is where this is, and where it is spreading, just as it is not the luck of the draw that the kids coming across the border have lice, but your kids don’t.

[Tilted Irish Kilt]

LurkingSince'98:" you forget that one person coming from Liberia with unsymptomatic Ebola changes the US graph from 0 to 1 - at which point it could go exponential here too."

Even Sierra Leone knows that Quatantine works - that is why they are locking down the country for three days.
I cannot understand why there isn't an airline Quarantine until medical authorities can get a handle on this disease, and try to get ahead of it.
I understand the economic justification for continued commerce , but I think that given the swiftness of this disease, such a decision defies logic.
With no vaccine, the only known medical control is Quarantine

[scouter]

you forget that one person coming from Liberia with unsymptomatic Ebola changes the US graph from 0 to 1 - at which point it could go exponential here too.

No, I'm not forgetting that. That's why I've calculated the numbers out. But just because the Daily Transmission Rate is currently 2.81% in Africa doesn't mean it will be the same here. It could be higher or lower. We just don't know how it will spread in a developed country. I can see arguments on both sides... that if it comes to NYC, for example, it could spread quite quickly. But on the other hand, it might stand a higher chance of being detected early on and successfully quarantined before the system gets overwhelmed. Who knows? It could go either way. That's why I'm saying we should prepare.

Remember, one huge advantage we have is that we're on the lookout for it so that we can contain it quickly. In Liberia and Sierra Leone, they were taken completely by surprise.

[Kirkwood]

Reminds me of global warming models.

[Vermont Lt]

There are a couple of trip-line points:

1. The first indication of Ebola in more civilized parts of Africa (Egypt, South Africa, Morocco.)

2. The first indication of a case “in the wild” off the continent.

3. The first indication of a case “in the wild” in China, Russia, Europe.

4. The first indication of a case “in the wild” in the Western Hemisphere.

I think we will see #1 soon. #2-4 will fall in fast order.

I am not expecting a flash fire, but I think once the walls to “western” populations fall, the whole thing will fall fast.

I would also expect if we see break outs in China or Russia population centers, its game over. I think they would make a breakout happen here. And vice versa. Yes, I know how “tin foil hat” that sounds, but it makes economic and military sense.

[cuban leaf]

Lice are everywhere, but not a problem in civilized countries.

I know it’s over-simplistic, but you get my drift.

And my personal belief is that if it gets TOO bad, it is the pale horseman, which would surprise me even less.

[cuban leaf]

I think it’s so bad because of the culture it is growing in. It’s why I use the lice example.

[Blood of Tyrants]

The one glaring problem I see with your predictions is that you assume ebola will spread at the same rate in countries without proper sanitation and inadequate healthcare as it does in first world countries. Or do your numbers represent spread in Africa only?

[cuban leaf]

...at which point it could go exponential here too.

------------------------------

Or not.

Both possibilities are just as real. Remember, we have a different health care quality here, and we are the home of the proven cures. And we have a lot of this:

Which reminds me, I gotta call my stock broker. ;-)