Posted on 09/13/2014 11:06:05 AM PDT by Raebie
The deadly Ebola outbreak sweeping across three countries in West Africa is likely to last 12 to 18 months more, much longer than anticipated, and could infect hundreds of thousands of people before it is brought under control, say scientists mapping its spread for the federal government.
“We hope we’re wrong,” said Bryan Lewis, an epidemiologist at the Virginia Bioinformatics Institute at Virginia Tech.
Both the time the model says it will take to control the epidemic and the number of cases it forecasts far exceed estimates by the World Health Organization, which said last month that it hoped to control the outbreak within nine months and predicted 20,000 total cases by that time. The organization is sticking by its estimates, a W.H.O. spokesman said Friday.
But researchers at various universities say that at the virus’s present rate of growth, there could easily be close to 20,000 cases in one month, not in nine. Some of the United States’ leading epidemiologists, with long experience in tracking diseases such as influenza, have been creating computer models of the Ebola epidemic at the request of the National Institutes of Health and the Defense Department.
(Excerpt) Read more at nytimes.com ...
Ping
I see two ways:
1) A vaccine or cure or something is developed and distributed to a population and the spread of the disease is stopped.
I truly love reading an article that contains serious internal contradictions.
One health organization down plays another’s predictions by saying the further into the future you go with Ebola predictions the more uncertain the numbers become. Yet that same organization claims their numbers don’t suffer the same uncertainty.
RIGHT!
BL - no one has a real handle on where this outbreak is going. Anyone who says otherwise should be made to post a personal bond that is forfeited if he is proven wrong.
My personal nightmare is the 2014 Ebola pandemic is the 1918-1920 Spanish Flu pandemic written large. Civilized society will break down and the only thing left will be radical Islamic societies. A very unpleasant nightmare!
A link to this thread has been posted on the Ebola Surveillance Thread
From what I understand, WHO is the only organization with optimistic numbers.
I think we know why that is.
From what I understand, WHO is the only organization with optimistic numbers.
I think we know why that is.
Ebola is no where nearly as easily spread as was the Spanish Flu but you’re right to bring the Spanish Flu up because Ebola is only one or two mutations away from being that bad. Airborne Ebola would be a nightmare in a far more densely populated world than Spanish Flu spread into.
I agree, it could break out and become a nightmare, or it could fizzle out during the next year, or cures and immunizations emerge, or anything.
As a long time survivalist I am used to that, either it will be the big one...........or it won't.
In the meantime I have to go buy some more wheat and bottled water.
I have to go buy some more wheat and bottled water.
as well as Silver Sol (Silver Biotics, Guardian Silver, ASAP)
It kills viruses and bacteria - even MRSA, STAPH INFECTIONS, AND LEPROSY
And turns you into Papa Smurf
There was an article yesterday about a guy turning people away from a hospital. He even said that one died at the gates and I wondered if those who die at home are even counted right now.
Remember too, these are probably best case scenarios.
I just don’t have much faith in their ability to
control this. Of course what do I know, but it
could solve the world population problem for the
new world order. I would not think Islam would
come out too well from such.
An ounce of precaution is worth a measure of cure.
prevention
Have you SEEN the videos of what passes as a huge containment ‘hospital’ compound???
I could set that up in my yard with a few sheets and rolls of plastic snow fence.
This threatens the world - and that’s the best they can do?
Where’s the UN?
Where’s the world?
They transport dead bodies and new income in the same delapid old vehicles - even using TAXIS to transport the sick!!!! Are they deliberately trying to spread it?
And turns you into Papa Smurf
Nano silver particles only stay in the body for 24 hours. Won’t happen.
Bring Out Your Dead
We’re gonna need 
a bigger cart!
Post to me or FReep mail to be on/off the Bring Out Your Dead ping list.
The purpose of the “Bring Out Your Dead” ping list (formerly the “Ebola” ping list) is very early warning of emerging pandemics, as such it has a high false positive rate.
So far the false positive rate is 100%.
At some point we may well have a high mortality pandemic, and likely as not the “Bring Out Your Dead” threads will miss the beginning entirely.
*sigh* Such is life, and death...
Thanks for the ping!
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