Posted on 09/11/2014 11:23:51 PM PDT by DouglasKC
THE Ebola epidemic in West Africa has the potential to alter history as much as any plague has ever done.
There have been more than 4,300 cases and 2,300 deaths over the past six months. Last week, the World Health Organization warned that, by early October, there may be thousands of new cases per week in Liberia, Sierra Leone, Guinea and Nigeria. What is not getting said publicly, despite briefings and discussions in the inner circles of the world’s public health agencies, is that we are in totally uncharted waters and that Mother Nature is the only force in charge of the crisis at this time.
There are two possible future chapters to this story that should keep us up at night.
The first possibility is that the Ebola virus spreads from West Africa to megacities in other regions of the developing world. This outbreak is very different from the 19 that have occurred in Africa over the past 40 years. It is much easier to control Ebola infections in isolated villages. But there has been a 300 percent increase in Africa’s population over the last four decades, much of it in large city slums. What happens when an infected person yet to become ill travels by plane to Lagos, Nairobi, Kinshasa or Mogadishu — or even Karachi, Jakarta, Mexico City or Dhaka?
The second possibility is one that virologists are loath to discuss openly but are definitely considering in private: that an Ebola virus could mutate to become transmissible through the air. You can now get Ebola only through direct contact with bodily fluids. But viruses like Ebola are notoriously sloppy in replicating, meaning the virus entering one person may be genetically different from the virus entering the next. The current Ebola virus’s hyper-evolution is unprecedented...
(Excerpt) Read more at nytimes.com ...
Scientists have found that people who survive Ebola have antibodies in their blood that would provide protection against that strain of the virus in the future, and possibly against other strains as well. But, as you can imagine, they haven't tested this theory by infecting survivors with the virus again.
So all these health professionals, experts and agencies basically:
-Have no plan.
-Can do nothing.
-Explain the disease as nature taking its course.
Useless bureaucrats doing nothing but making excuses. Cashier them all!
I still do not think it can take hold here like it can in Africa.
Ebola, if it gets out of hand looks like it could solve our man made global warming and reduce humanities carbon footprint.
Don’t be surprised if some Islamic terrorist don’t go and get infected in order to come to America to spread the Ebola virus instead of strapping a bomb and just blowing up.
> I still do not think it can take hold here like it can in Africa.
Only true if it does not become air transmissible. Your statement works because we are better at keeping clean, which is impossible in tropical Africa. But air transmission makes that advantage worthless.
Well, it’s spread by sweat and can live for days in the shade down to 40 degrees.
Now think about pubic transportation, taxis, elevators, restrooms, etc.
The Liberian who took it to Nigeria was well enough to pass exit screening and subsequently infected the person sitting next to him on the airplane -who subsequently died.
I think if it ever gets to a major city in America that it will spread much faster then it is in Africa.
I think if it ever gets to a major city in America that it will spread much faster then it is in Africa.
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“Useless bureaucrats doing nothing ....”
Better than useless bureaucrats doing something, anything to appear to be effective. Many times they are doing the wrong thing(s) and making the situation worse
But, I thought they were starving in Africa? How can the population grow by 300% if they couldn't feed themselves 40 years ago?
And this is not even the scariest bug running around right now. Sigh.
Actually, far worse. We have political correctness to prevent the isolated quarantines imposed on the populations in Liberia. Does anyone remember the AIDS epidemic and how there was no quarantine of the affected homos?
I’m not afraid of AIDS either.
this is a belief based on what?
We have this enterovirus spreading through our schools right now. It just seemed to pop up out of nowhere after a summer of mass immigration from Mexico. But public health officials just can’t figure out where it came from.
Only true if it does not become air transmissible. Your statement works because we are better at keeping clean, which is impossible in tropical Africa. But air transmission makes that advantage worthless.
Hello Arizona..... I understand that the Ebola virus cannot survive in a dry heat area. It needs moisture to survive.
Michael Osterholm is a senior and very well respected clinician, scientist, and epidemiologist. He’s also very well-connected.
That he would publish this, at this time, and in the NYT, reflects the enormous tension that must exist today within the CDC bureaucracy. No junior scientist/epidemiologist who depends on CDC, or PHS in general for a paycheck could have ever written this.
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