Posted on 09/09/2014 8:33:42 AM PDT by dennisw
Arguments that a large African labor pool brings growth through expanded light manufacturing, is belied by the fact that African labor markets aren't now absorbing a vast and growing supply of workers.
A recent report by the United Nations Children’s Fund (UNICEF) forecasts that if current trends persist, one in every four people on the planet will be African by the year 2100.
Even accounting for a decline in fertility brought on by greater prosperity, UNICEF predicts that by 2050 alone, the number of Africans under the age of eighteen may swell to around one billion. Recommended: Think you know Africa? Take our geography quiz.
The report concludes that more emphasis must be placed on access to reproductive health services, girls’ education, and vital statistics systems. Test your knowledgeThink you know Africa? Take our geography quiz. Play Photos of the Day Photos of the Day 09/08
Such numbers should inform development strategies and common perceptions on the African continent.
The notion of a “demographic dividend” in Africa seems largely misguided, and should not be passively viewed as inevitable. The dividend arises when fertility rates fall due to better health outcomes, but this process has been slow to arrive in Africa.
Some claim that a large pool of labor can provide an engine of growth through expanded light manufacturing, but the fact is that African labor markets are currently unable to absorb a .....
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Unless that number includes Doctors, scientists,skilled workers etc. then it is 72,000 too many.
By 2050 there won’t be any light manufacturing anywhere.
Small items will be made right in the home using a desktop assembler, imagine a very, very advanced 3D printer able to make everything from medicine and tools to the family dinner.
The age of automation will be in full swing.
Most nations will have a guaranteed annual income... no, not welfare. It will be one of the results of full automation.
It actually will be the beginnings of an age where money does grow on trees, so to speak.
Socialists will hate it because advanced automation means people won’t need government to take care of themselves.
2050 will be nothing like 2014.
Nearly everything will be made by automated machines. Houses, cars, aircraft, toys, general electronics, food, roads, clothes... All at nearly zero cost. Almost everything will be disposable. Two things will be in demand..raw materials and energy. Raw materials will be harvested and processed automatically. Unless there is a fusion energy breakthrough then manufacturing will run on solar. I know many scoff at solar but solar gets cheaper every day and it will become a LOT cheaper than fossil fuel energy in a few decades.
There will be almost no low-skill or manual labor jobs.
It is all inevitable.
paid for by who?
It's not how big your labor pool is, it's how smart and hard-working your labor pool is. You can see the difference between Africa and East Asian labor pools.
Low-skill, low-IQ, low-effort workers will increasingly be displaced by automation this decade. What happens as the value of some people's labor drops below the cost of feeding them, and charity is extended past the breaking point?
Yep, it’s a big big concern of mine......Idle hands are the Devil’s Workshop, and there are move idle hands with each passing day.
Basically paid for by the machines. It’s an alien concept because we have never had such capabilities before. You can certainly see the beginnings of it now and it will scale up very quickly.
Now we have people working, paying taxes, and using their income to buy manufactured goods. In a few decades it will no longer be people working, it will be mostly machines. Now people pay taxes, with automation it will be the machines that pay taxes, in a sense. That is where the guaranteed income comes from.
It is hard to get your head around but it is inevitable so we will have to make it work.
Someday there actually will be a free lunch. Computer controlled automatons will be like slaves who never tire. They will both construct and drive our cars. They will build and clean our houses. They will grow, harvest and prepare our meals. They will repair our bodies at a cellular level.
Technological advancement is no longer linear. There will be a FAR greater advancement in technology between now and 2050 than there was between the time of Christ and now.
It is a form of welfare and it will be inflationary too
I, for one, welcome our new silicon masters!
Machines have no ability to "pay" for anything. The products generated by the machines will be the property of the OWNERS of the machines.
Just like the massive amounts of food we currently grow using tractors, harvesters, and other machines are the property of the farmers who own the machines and the land, and who are currently not that interested in gratuitously sharing their harvests with people with no money to pay for it.
Every bit of food, every TV, every smartphone that is produced will need to be paid for by somebody.
I realize this will make me unpopular with many here, but there will come a day when either the people who produce stuff get the people who don't produce stuff to stop having kids, or civilization will collapse under the weight of the welfare class.
If Ebola goes wild, most of them will be dead.
Ebola truly has the potential to be the black death of Africa, and no less destructive.
Imagine if 75% of the population of the continent is wiped out in 4-5 years.... too much free youth and labor are not going to be an issue.
Wrong.
In a world where almost no one works and thus must get a GAI it will not be allowed for people to exclusively own the fruits of the labor of machines.
If a small group owned all the machines there would be no one with income to buy anything they produced. We will all own a stake in the automated machinery. There is no other way. It's not socialism as long as humans don't have to work for others benefit.
It will be impossible for some people to ever understand all this... but it will come about. There is nothing about this that is progressive/socialist/communist..etc. In fact it will be like sunlight to vampires for the progressives..they will have to be dragged screaming into a world where the vast majority of people have little use for government.
Screw Africa. By 2030, half the population in India will be under the age of 30. That demographic will doom China whose population will be over the age of 50. India, because of their youth, will be the most dynamic economy in the world, buying computers, smartphones, cars, houses and gold.
India will be the future and countless businesses will try to get on the gravy train and sell them goods and services.
This is a great opportunity for American businesses, especially in the American Southeast. Our population in the Southeast is mirroring India’s population. It’s a match made in heaven for both countries.
First I have heard this. Thanks and the India-SE USA link is interesting. Just FYI India buys lots of Iranian oil. Iran oil ports are only 1500 miles away
The Indians can’t build resorts and hotels fast enough to accommodate all of their citizens who love touring their own country. The Indians are much like the British who love taking holidays in their own country.
The Indians are very tech savvy. Millions of Indian kids want and own cell phones. The 10 to 14 year-old demographic in India is propelling the smartphone revolution in India. Broadband there is still in its infancy.These Indian kids, as they grow up, will be demanding faster broadband speeds to download movies, data and do business.
I’ve never been to India but am fascinated by the economic potential of India. If I were 30-years-old, I’d start a company in India now and be a millionaire before I hit 40.
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