Posted on 09/02/2014 11:31:02 AM PDT by SeekAndFind
Tepid fundraising, underperforming candidates and a lousy party brand are threatening to deprive House Republicans of the sweeping 2014 gains that some top party officials have been predicting this year.
POLITICO interviewed more than a dozen top strategists from both parties about their outlook for the House in the midterms, and their assessment was nearly unanimous: Republicans are on track to expand their majority by only five or six seats, or roughly half their goal. The conversations covered everything from advertising strategies to fundraising to polling.
A small gain would again leave Speaker John Boehner (R-Ohio) largely beholden to the tea party wing of the party, with little room to maneuver on a governing agenda.
With the post-Labor Day homestretch kicking off, the interviews revealed:
* Republicans are convinced they’ll be significantly outspent by Democrats — in contrast to the 2010 midterm elections, when the GOP overwhelmed its opponents with an avalanche of cash.
* GOP strategists are particularly worried about the performance of a handful of candidates who are well-positioned to win but seen as running poor campaigns. Three are mentioned repeatedly: Florida Rep. Steve Southerland, Nebraska Rep. Lee Terry and Virginia House candidate Barbara Comstock.
* Nearly a year after the government shutdown, Republicans privately say the party’s tattered public image is dragging down candidates in key races.
* Despite the GOP’s troubles, Democrats remain anxious that the political environment could deteriorate still further before Election Day. They say two of their vulnerable incumbents, New Hampshire Rep. Carol Shea-Porter and Illinois Rep. Bill Enyart, may soon be lost causes and are scrambling to prevent that list from growing.
(Excerpt) Read more at politico.com ...
Polutico, no less.
The GOP’s problems (one of many) is that it doesn’t really stand FOR anything. The just want to get into power so they can get a share of the pelf.
Of course I take anything from Politico with a grain of salt, but gee, who wouldda thunk that conservatives wouldn’t be falling all over ourselves to support candidates the GOPe pulled every gutter tactic known, to shove down our throats?
Sure, cuz that is easier than taking responsibility for stupid moves and still having no message.
All politics is local.
And the outside groups that played an outsize role in the GOP’s 2010 House takeover aren’t showing up this time around.
ya think?
The RINOcrats are lousy at everything they touch. They screw up everything they do. Romney, McCain, the two Bush’s, yada, yada. This is the best they have to offer us. I am thankful I have Jeff Sessions as my Senator. The other AL senator is a bum, but Jeff is quality. If the entire republican party was like Jeff they would be strong. Unfortunately, he is stuck with this worthless mob. They will find a way, any way, to lose the house and continue to lose the senate.
Therein lies the reason for their problem, disguised as what they fear will be the problem. In their minds, the TEA Party is more of an enemy to them than the Dims. They have gone out of the way to stifle the only enthusiasm to be found.
Anyone who thinks John Boehner is beholden to the Tea Party needs to think again. He can always go to his good friends, the Democrats.
I stopped reading right there, no serious analyst, democrat or republican, was ever predicting "sweeping gains" in the house, there are only about 15 seats that are even considered competitive because of the 2010 redistricting that made democrat seats more democrat and republican seats more republican leaving very few competitive seats (which is why most democrat analysts privately say that the democrats stand virtually no chance of taking back the house before the 2020 redistricting, even with Obama on the ballot in 2012, they didn't come anywhere close).
Yet I hear that the pubbies are outdoing the dems 3 to 1 in donations.
The GOP have themselves to blame.
Hate to break it to the political class, but the party had a tattered image a year before that when our Senate candidates got trounced along with the party favorite Romney. The House elections were neutral at best with redistricting that should have helped us gain seats.
It ain't a government shutdown that caused it. It's the failed leadership of our party that ruined a 2010 landslide at all levels and continued to bring absolutely no message voters and allowed their opponent to vilify them successfully with no response.
I see GOPe as as much of the problem as the Dems. I’m not the least bit interested in seeing them gain seats. Now, if some conservatives can get into the party, that would be different. But I’m DEFINITELY voting against McConnel this time. It will be the first democrat I’ve voted for since 1972 (the first time I ever voted).
Politico. Hmm. Both sides hate it. That being said ...
SO the GOPe tries to destroy it’s base, cozies up to wealthy donors (our Freedom be damned), has no plan to do ... anything, is lead be feckless morons ... I may be with Politico on this one. I’m surprised how little I care.
After Cochran and McConnell, it’s all but impossible for me to particularly have any enthusiasm or interest about a GOP takeover of the Senate. Heck, add Lindsey Graham into the mix as well.
But admittedly, I haven’t had a much enthusiasm or interest towards the GOP does since the backstabbing of Palin. I still might get out and vote for one or two local candidates this November, but that’s about it.
What a bunch of horsemanure.
The party out power usually makes significant gains in midterm elections. This is especially true in the sixth year of an incumbent administration. Consider the following:
In 1958, the sixth year of the Eisenhower Administration, the Dems made huge gains in the midterm election.
In 1966, the sixth year of the JFK-LBJ Administration, the GOP made huge gains in the midterm election.
In 1974, the sixth year of the Nixon-Ford Administration the Dems made huge gains in the midterm election.
In 1986, the sixth year of the RR Administration, the Dems made huge gains in the midterm election, taking back the US Senate after 6 years of GOP control.
In 1998, the sixth year of the Clinton Administration, the GOP did not score such an impressive victory, but that is because it already scored huge in the 1994 midterm elections and there was little left to gain.
In 2006, the sixth year of the GWB Administration, the Dems scored a huge victory taking control of both the House and the US Senate.
Polls fluctuate back and forth, but historical trends remain relatively constant. Dems woes are also significantly made worse by the number of US Senate seats they must defend in red states easily carried by both MR and McCain.
Politico is putting out nothing more than wishful thinking and its usual spin.
The Republicans will make some gains in Congress, more specifically in the Senate. However, they don’t really deserve to win either. They are somewhat better than democrats, so I will probably vote for them again but that isn’t saying much.
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