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The Worst Case Scenario In The Middle East, In One Sentence
BI ^ | 8-31-2014 | Michael B Kelley

Posted on 08/31/2014 2:32:34 PM PDT by blam

Michael B Kelley
August 31, 2014

Ali Khedery, the longest continuously serving American official in Iraq (2003-09), recently sat down with Reza Akhlaghi of the Foreign Policy Association to discuss American policy in the Middle East.

The candid discussion highlights several mistakes the U.S. made in the 21st century and lays out some troubling potential scenarios for the future if circumstances continue to worsen.

"As the Middle East unravels, the U.S. and its allies will be the real losers because we won’t be able to contain these cancers of sectarian war and transnational jihad," Khedery, who is now chairman and chief executive of the Dubai-based Dragoman Partners, told Akhlaghi. "Radicals will grow in strength on both sides, namely the Salafist ISIS and the Shia militias, eventually driving the entire region towards destabilization, inevitably threatening global energy supplies and the global economy."

Iraq accounts for 61% of expected growth in output capacity of Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) by 2018. And while most reserves are in Iraqi Kurdistan and the Shia south, an Iraq that's on fire is not good for supply lines.

(snip)

(Excerpt) Read more at businessinsider.com ...


TOPICS: News/Current Events
KEYWORDS: iraq; isis; syria; war
Muslim Killing Muslim...is there a better plan?
1 posted on 08/31/2014 2:32:34 PM PDT by blam
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To: blam

How about making Syria a glass parking lot ..?????


2 posted on 08/31/2014 2:35:13 PM PDT by CyberAnt (True the Vote: " MY AMERICA, ... I'm terrified it's slipping away.")
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To: blam

Ebola Enterprises touring north Africa, the mideast and pawkeeschtan.

I think that would slow down and thin much of the muslim aggression.


3 posted on 08/31/2014 2:46:16 PM PDT by himno hero (hadnuff)
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To: himno hero

I think you’ve got something there!


4 posted on 08/31/2014 2:51:55 PM PDT by The Sons of Liberty (I want a Speaker who'll stick that pen and phone where no one but Reggie Love can find it!)
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To: blam
Iraq accounts for 61% of expected growth in output capacity of Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) by 2018.

And yet, Bush didn't bother to ask for one dime of reimbursement for our actions on its behalf.

5 posted on 08/31/2014 3:07:33 PM PDT by DoughtyOne (We'll know when he's really hit bottom. They'll start referring to him as White.)
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To: blam

Yes but we need a war to distract, to enable continued levels of defense spending, and to export Miley Cyrus to the entire planet. /s

Let’s just get all our troops out of the cesspool.


6 posted on 08/31/2014 3:29:45 PM PDT by ReaganGeneration2
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To: blam

Worst case scenario?

Uh... how about starting a thermonuclear World War III...


7 posted on 08/31/2014 3:41:34 PM PDT by Jack Hammer
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To: blam; AdmSmith; AnonymousConservative; Berosus; bigheadfred; Bockscar; cardinal4; ColdOne; ...

> Iraq accounts for 61% of expected growth in output capacity of Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) by 2018. And while most reserves are in Iraqi Kurdistan and the Shia south, an Iraq that’s on fire is not good for supply lines.

Heh, gosh, it’s almost as if the Iranians and Russians are the main beneficiaries of the destruction of the US-backed gov’t of Iraq.


8 posted on 08/31/2014 3:53:46 PM PDT by SunkenCiv (https://secure.freerepublic.com/donate/)
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To: DoughtyOne

Neither did the elder Bush ask anything from the Kuwaitis for saving their miserable asses and their independence from Iraq.

It’s always the infidels stepping into the breach for protecting murderous muzzies.


9 posted on 08/31/2014 4:01:38 PM PDT by 353FMG
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To: 353FMG

And look...all it took was beheading one reported and a couple of hundred Christians for the call to go forth to waste our blood over there again.

Feeling manipulated yet?


10 posted on 08/31/2014 4:05:35 PM PDT by Vermont Lt (Ebola: Death is a lagging indicator.)
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To: Vermont Lt

The real manipulation is by our government for allowing the muzzies to come into our society for the ‘privilege’ of buying their oil. Who in hell invites people in who tell you in advance that they will kill you for being an infidel?

We shall now have to spend our blood right here at home fighting them for our survival.

All this would have been unnecessary if we had never let them in.


11 posted on 08/31/2014 4:26:07 PM PDT by 353FMG
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To: 353FMG
"Who in hell invites people in who tell you in advance that they will kill you for being an infidel?"

This could prove to be as destructive to this country as LBJ's Great Society bs.

12 posted on 08/31/2014 4:46:55 PM PDT by blam (Jeff Sessions For President)
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To: 353FMG

I haven’t seen any proof that they are here.

I think all of the “noise” coming out of Syria is being used to mask what is going on in Ukraine.

It makes no sense at all for ISIS to attack us here. Their leaders want to survive and expand the caliphate. It is the Saudis who are pushing the buttons here.

You want to know why Obama looks like he’s seen a ghost is because he’s been ordered to something he doesn’t want to do.


13 posted on 08/31/2014 4:51:35 PM PDT by Vermont Lt (Ebola: Death is a lagging indicator.)
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To: CyberAnt

not just syria. the entire mound of muslim kitty litter needs to be turned to glass.


14 posted on 08/31/2014 5:02:33 PM PDT by Secret Agent Man ( Gone Galt; Not averse to Going Bronson.)
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To: Vermont Lt
"You want to know why Obama looks like he’s seen a ghost is because he’s been ordered to something he doesn’t want to do."

That's right, his boss, Valerie Jarrett was born in Iran and they're Shia...the ISIS are Sunni.

15 posted on 08/31/2014 5:05:10 PM PDT by blam (Jeff Sessions For President)
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To: blam

The good news is over the next 5 yrs the “best customer” of mideast oil becomes China.

You know, those folks with mafia business practices and 1.5 billion expendable people.


16 posted on 08/31/2014 5:08:44 PM PDT by nascarnation (Toxic Baraq Syndrome: hopefully infecting a Dem candidate near you)
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To: blam
Few years ago some suggested Allawi was the best choice for PM in Iraq. He is sunni but a secularist. Some FReepers disagreed that since the majority of Iraqis are Shia, and part of what we introduced in Iraq was democracy, people must vote and nothing wrong with people choosing a shia PM. 'Course some also understood that with a shia PM, and a majority shia population in Iraq, there was every chance of increasing the Iranian influence.

That said and to state the obvious, since the overthrow of Saddam, who was very anti shia and especially anti Iranian regime, the ongoing sectarian war in Iraq has been essentially between Saudi Arabia and Iran, by proxy.

Enter Islamic State (IS) which follows a strict Salafi doctrine but still is sunni, and especially hates anything shia or related. Equally, worldwide 85% of muslim population is sunni, with the rest, 15%, shia. Even in neighboring countries, the majority are sunni, although those who sit in oil rich areas are mostly shia. Ultimately, if the sectarian war spread, I'd imagine the sunnis would win hands down.

Question are: should ISIS manage to takeover the oilfields in southern parts of Iraq, would it accommodate the West and USA in particular by ensuring uninterrupted supply lines and reasonable crude prices?

Perhaps if the Saudis and a few Gulf States reined in IS, IS would? Or perhaps some could recognize IS as a nation-state and develop an economic relationship with it? After all, currently IS has its own Minister of Finance and rules over approx. 8 million people in Syria and Iraq combined.

An alternative maybe that the U.S. and its allies such as Saudi Arabia, the Gulf States and the West get rid of both IS and the Shi'ites. That maybe the perfect world....

17 posted on 08/31/2014 6:56:37 PM PDT by odds
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To: 353FMG

Yes, he gave that a pass too. Not very smart.

Makes you wonder what he was thinking there.

In the case of Hussein, he actually wanted to pull an ISIS maneuver starting with Kuwait. It’s best he was stopped then.


18 posted on 08/31/2014 9:28:24 PM PDT by DoughtyOne (We'll know when he's really hit bottom. They'll start referring to him as White.)
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To: DoughtyOne

Arguably, Kuwait was once part of Iraq.

The sheikh of Kuwait is related to the House of Saud.


19 posted on 08/31/2014 10:00:06 PM PDT by 353FMG
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To: 353FMG

Fair enough. You could probably go back and claim many places over there first belonged to someone else.

Twenty, thirty, or more years later, is it something that has pretty much been settled. I guess you could argue each way.


20 posted on 09/01/2014 3:19:11 PM PDT by DoughtyOne (We'll know when he's really hit bottom. They'll start referring to him as White.)
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