The other consideration is how long can energy independence be sustained.
How long could we produce 19 million bpd?
I have seen estimates from roughly 10-20 years.
By then we’d have another source, like fusion, sawgrass biomass, coal gasification or who knows what.
The other consideration is how long can energy independence be sustained.
How long could we produce 19 million bpd?
I have seen estimates from roughly 10-20 years.
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That might go to 30-40 years. However, by 2020 there will start some serious demand destruction which will inexorably crush the price oil. Why? Because, natural gas houses, trains trucks and buses plus electric cars are right now growning strongly. If they keep doing so—and that’s a big if — then the inevitable result is that the demand for oil will fall, a little at first but more sharply later.
The final price for oil will be somewhere in the 35 dollar range in current US dollars which on a btu basis is about where coal and natural gas are today.