U.S. jobless claims turn higher one week after touching 14-year low

Marketwatch ^ | 7/31/14 | Jeffrey Bartash

[goodnesswins]

Thanks

[Wyatt's Torch]

The revisions are on a set basis that is published. To save you the effort here it is:

8/28 8:30 am - 2Q14 1st Revision
9/26 8:30 am - 2Q14 2nd Revision
10/30 8:30 am - 2Q14 3rd Revision; 3Q14 Advance

[SoFloFreeper]

Aren’t our lying’ eyes a source of data? :-)

I know the answer regarding anecdotal evidence, etc. Just sayin’, I have also heard of Team BO changing the way various barometers are measured, probably in an attempt to put lipstick on their economic pig.

[Wyatt's Torch]

Anecdotal evidence = confirmation bias

For me I see dozens of data points a day in my finance/forecasting job and what I see supports a lot of the statistics.

That being said I’ve posted dozens of times here that this recovery is “sub-optimal” thanks to Obama’s virulent anti-business environment. The recovery is occurring in spite of him and thanks to the resilience of the American people.

[mikrofon]

The level of claims was in line with Wall Street expectations

There's something you don't see these days with regard to economic predictions…

[SoFloFreeper]

Yes, there are, in my opinion, plenty of ways the federal government could be making the economy grow....mostly by exercising restraint....and not consuming so much of the taxpayer’s wealth.

[Wyatt's Torch]

Times are less volatile... The last 11 (that’s as far back as I went) initial claims reports have averaged missing expectations by a little over 1,000 per week. That’s 99%+ accuracy which is pretty incredible.

[Wyatt's Torch]

Absolutely. Obama is who Reagan was talking about when he said, “If it Moves, Tax it. If it Keeps Moving, Regulate it. And if it Stops Moving, Subsidize it.”

[mikrofon]

That may be the case — you get numb to seeing the term “unexpected” issued on most of these pronouncements.

I guess like pigs at the trough, we’re supposed to be glad to be at a stable, base level of squalor...

[Wyatt's Torch]

Well considering 300K 4WMA initial claims less than 83% of every data point in this time series, I would say that the “squalor” is pretty good...

[Wyatt's Torch]

Claims lead UE3 so expect that to continue to fall towards sub 6%.

And yes I know the issues with U3 which is why I always refer to U6 (still not perfect)...

[mikrofon]

I have (had) a math background, but find interpreting economic statistics quite confusing, to say the least… Given your interpretation of the data & trends, from direct experience we’re not at some “happy place” at this point, which is always the undercurrent Media theme whenever these announcements come out.

Thankfully, I was close enough to retirement after recent dismissal from a position of 30+ years to qualify for SSD, and after over a year post-graduate school my daughter is finally getting feelers RE her chosen profession — for one thing, to help in defraying the artificially high tuition loans in place. I suppose every family has their own horror stories related to the current economy, to one extent or another.

[Wyatt's Torch]

We aren’t in a “happy place” - things are pretty good. By no means great.

- Still significant slack in the labor markets... but record high number of private payrolls

- Yes claims are historically low... but job openings are at a record high because skilled labor is difficult to find

- Participation rate has declined... rate for 65+ is climbing to a new high while 18-24 is lower...

We have a long way to go and things could definitely be a lot better if Obama would just get out of the way. But he won’t. He’s the most anti-business president in history.

Yes all, or most, have similar stories. Very sorry for yours. We have had similar.

[mikrofon]

Thanks… I couldn’t agree more about Obama & his policies being a major impediment to recovery. I’m no financial expert by any means, but the U.S. economy seems to be structured to be self-corrective – certain cyclical adjustments can be helpful, not the Gov’t sledgehammer.

[Wyatt's Torch]

Agree but the Keynesian trained bureaucrats can’t help themselves. Fiscal and regulatory policy has smothered business and efficient capital deployment. American business/people/culture is resilient by nature. Get the government out of the way and watch what happens. That was Reagan’s philosophy.

[SoFloFreeper]

U6 includes the people who have given up?

[Wyatt's Torch]

Here is the definition of U6 - “Total unemployed, plus all persons marginally attached to the labor force, plus total employed part time for economic reasons, as a percent of the civilian labor force plus all persons marginally attached to the labor force.

NOTE: Persons marginally attached to the labor force are those who currently are neither working nor looking for work but indicate that they want and are available for a job and have looked for work sometime in the past 12 months. Discouraged workers, a subset of the marginally attached, have given a job-market related reason for not currently looking for work. Persons employed part time for economic reasons are those who want and are available for full-time work but have had to settle for a part-time schedule.”

U6 is the “broadest” unemployment stat available. Still has it’s flaws but it’s far better than the U3 headline number.