Posted on 07/31/2014 7:13:26 AM PDT by SoFloFreeper
One week after falling to a 14-year low, the number of people who applied for U.S. unemployment benefits rose sharply last week but remained near a postrecession bottom.
Initial jobless claims climbed by 23,000 to 302,000 in the seven days ended July 26, retracing the entire decline in prior week, according to Labor Department data . The level of claims was in line with Wall Street expectations.
(Excerpt) Read more at marketwatch.com ...
Thanks
The revisions are on a set basis that is published. To save you the effort here it is:
8/28 8:30 am - 2Q14 1st Revision
9/26 8:30 am - 2Q14 2nd Revision
10/30 8:30 am - 2Q14 3rd Revision; 3Q14 Advance
Aren’t our lying’ eyes a source of data? :-)
I know the answer regarding anecdotal evidence, etc. Just sayin’, I have also heard of Team BO changing the way various barometers are measured, probably in an attempt to put lipstick on their economic pig.
Anecdotal evidence = confirmation bias
For me I see dozens of data points a day in my finance/forecasting job and what I see supports a lot of the statistics.
That being said I’ve posted dozens of times here that this recovery is “sub-optimal” thanks to Obama’s virulent anti-business environment. The recovery is occurring in spite of him and thanks to the resilience of the American people.
There's something you don't see these days with regard to economic predictions
Yes, there are, in my opinion, plenty of ways the federal government could be making the economy grow....mostly by exercising restraint....and not consuming so much of the taxpayer’s wealth.
Times are less volatile... The last 11 (that’s as far back as I went) initial claims reports have averaged missing expectations by a little over 1,000 per week. That’s 99%+ accuracy which is pretty incredible.
Absolutely. Obama is who Reagan was talking about when he said, “If it Moves, Tax it. If it Keeps Moving, Regulate it. And if it Stops Moving, Subsidize it.”
That may be the case — you get numb to seeing the term “unexpected” issued on most of these pronouncements.
I guess like pigs at the trough, we’re supposed to be glad to be at a stable, base level of squalor...
Well considering 300K 4WMA initial claims less than 83% of every data point in this time series, I would say that the “squalor” is pretty good...
And yes I know the issues with U3 which is why I always refer to U6 (still not perfect)...
I have (had) a math background, but find interpreting economic statistics quite confusing, to say the least Given your interpretation of the data & trends, from direct experience we’re not at some “happy place” at this point, which is always the undercurrent Media theme whenever these announcements come out.
Thankfully, I was close enough to retirement after recent dismissal from a position of 30+ years to qualify for SSD, and after over a year post-graduate school my daughter is finally getting feelers RE her chosen profession — for one thing, to help in defraying the artificially high tuition loans in place. I suppose every family has their own horror stories related to the current economy, to one extent or another.
We aren’t in a “happy place” - things are pretty good. By no means great.
- Still significant slack in the labor markets... but record high number of private payrolls
- Yes claims are historically low... but job openings are at a record high because skilled labor is difficult to find
- Participation rate has declined... rate for 65+ is climbing to a new high while 18-24 is lower...
We have a long way to go and things could definitely be a lot better if Obama would just get out of the way. But he won’t. He’s the most anti-business president in history.
Yes all, or most, have similar stories. Very sorry for yours. We have had similar.
Thanks I couldn’t agree more about Obama & his policies being a major impediment to recovery. I’m no financial expert by any means, but the U.S. economy seems to be structured to be self-corrective certain cyclical adjustments can be helpful, not the Gov’t sledgehammer.
Agree but the Keynesian trained bureaucrats can’t help themselves. Fiscal and regulatory policy has smothered business and efficient capital deployment. American business/people/culture is resilient by nature. Get the government out of the way and watch what happens. That was Reagan’s philosophy.
U6 includes the people who have given up?
Here is the definition of U6 - “Total unemployed, plus all persons marginally attached to the labor force, plus total employed part time for economic reasons, as a percent of the civilian labor force plus all persons marginally attached to the labor force.
NOTE: Persons marginally attached to the labor force are those who currently are neither working nor looking for work but indicate that they want and are available for a job and have looked for work sometime in the past 12 months. Discouraged workers, a subset of the marginally attached, have given a job-market related reason for not currently looking for work. Persons employed part time for economic reasons are those who want and are available for full-time work but have had to settle for a part-time schedule.”
U6 is the “broadest” unemployment stat available. Still has it’s flaws but it’s far better than the U3 headline number.
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