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How Nicky and Willy could have prevented World War I
The Washington Post ^ | 7-27-14 | Graham Allison

Posted on 07/27/2014 2:07:46 PM PDT by afraidfortherepublic

One hundred years ago this week, Tsar Nicholas II of Russia and Kaiser Wilhelm of Germany exchanged a series of telegrams to try to stop the rush to a war that neither of them wanted. They signed their notes “Nicky” and “Willy.”

Cousins who vacationed together, hunted together and enjoyed dressing up in the uniforms of each other’s military officers when sailing on their yachts, these two great-great-grandsons of Paul I of Russia wrote to each other in English, affirming their mutual interests and outlining an agreement that would have resolved the crisis on terms acceptable to both rulers.

Yet only three days after the tsar and kaiser’s initial exchange, Germany declared war on Russia, and World War I was underway. Tragically, these leaders were caught in what Henry Kissinger has called a “doomsday machine”: a network of interlocking alliances and military mobilization timetables that allowed the march of events to overcome their best efforts.

The telegrams between them were discovered by an American journalist in the Russian government archives in 1919 and caused a sensation when they were first published in 1920. A century after they were written, they are vivid reminders of the perils of crisis management — and the wisdom of preventive diplomacy to resolve challenges like today’s territorial dispute in eastern Ukraine before they become crises that suck great powers into confrontations.

(Excerpt) Read more at washingtonpost.com ...


TOPICS: Foreign Affairs; Germany; Government; Russia
KEYWORDS: czar; kaiser; ww1
Fascinating look back on history. It demonstrates the folly of depending upon others to deliver your message.
1 posted on 07/27/2014 2:07:46 PM PDT by afraidfortherepublic
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To: afraidfortherepublic

WaPo agitprop in motion.


2 posted on 07/27/2014 2:13:31 PM PDT by PieterCasparzen (We have to fix things ourselves)
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To: PieterCasparzen

Next article : How Hussein could have prevented WWIII, “if only those damn Jews would march into the sea.”


3 posted on 07/27/2014 2:17:57 PM PDT by rawcatslyentist (Jeremiah 50:32 "The arrogant one will stumble and fall ; / ?)
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To: afraidfortherepublic

The reality was that both Germany and Russia were governed by short sighted politicians. Neither royal family had absolute power. The Russian Czar had more influence but could not contradict the politicians unless he had a working consensus .Russia was doomed after Stolypin was assassinated.


4 posted on 07/27/2014 2:18:43 PM PDT by allendale
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To: afraidfortherepublic

Kaisher still was a***hole to his personal family


5 posted on 07/27/2014 2:22:05 PM PDT by SevenofNine (We are Freepers, all your media bases belong to us ,resistance is futile)
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To: allendale

The reality was that international banking elites knocked off the Tsar, never returning money in his foreign accounts to Russia. Hundreds of millions.

The Russian revolution was engineered and funded by UK/US financial elites.

Just look up American International Corporation at 120 Broadway in NYC.

Jacob Schiff: millions to the Bolsheviks.
Rockefeller: bigtime supporter of Soviet Russia.

etc.


6 posted on 07/27/2014 2:24:28 PM PDT by PieterCasparzen (We have to fix things ourselves)
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To: afraidfortherepublic

Nicholas, Wilhelm and George were cousins through Victoria. All three were totally incompetent to rule. George is saved by history as a constitutional monarch who was well served by his ministers

Inbred degenerate disasters each


7 posted on 07/27/2014 2:29:41 PM PDT by Jimmy Valentine (DemocRATS - when they speak, they lie; when they are silent, they are stealing the American Dream)
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To: allendale

Stolypin’s agrarian policies were proving so successful that a despairing Lenin wrote from exile,

“Do not say with certainty that reformed capitalism in Russia is impossible. It IS possible!!”

How ironic that Stolypin’s name was later applied to the railcars that carried tens of thousands of political prisoners into the Gulag.


8 posted on 07/27/2014 2:31:28 PM PDT by elcid1970 ("In the modern world, Muslims are living fossils.")
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To: afraidfortherepublic

“caught in what Henry Kissinger has called a “doomsday machine”: a network of interlocking alliances and military mobilization timetables “
Not only were the Kaiser and Czar cousins, George V or Britain was the Kaisers first cousin. The house of Windsor was founded by King George V by royal proclamation on 17 July 1917, when he changed the name of the British Royal Family from the German Saxe-Coburg and Gotha (a branch of the House of Wettin) to the English Windsor.

Back then we weren’t in these retarded alliances. We listened to George Washington. We managed to stay out of the meatgrinder and moneysuck for most of the war.

Today we seek alliances everywhere. They do nearly nothing for us except ensure that we get to play in every war someone decides to throw. And new world order types love them. But our “allies”, including the Brits, are generally without value to the USA. They provide nothing to us and entangle us in all kinds of garbage.
Though they are good quality here and there, they simply do not carry the load.

Today, alliances let the world decide when Americans must go to war. Like in Ukraine, Syria, Libya, Somalia, etc etc etc...
Hell, even Vietnam and the Philippines wants to ally with us again now so we can fight their wars with China over the Spratleys and other oil islands.


9 posted on 07/27/2014 2:59:39 PM PDT by DesertRhino (I was standing with a rifle, waiting for soviet paratroopers, but communists just ran for office.)
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To: Jimmy Valentine
Inbred degenerate disasters each

Prince Charles??? Thankfully Prince Charle's son Prince William, married a commoner and not someone of royal blood. He and his wife have been a class act despite the media.

10 posted on 07/27/2014 3:20:13 PM PDT by cpdiii (deckhand, roughneck, geologist, pilot, pharmacist. The constitution is worth dying for!)
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To: allendale

The reality is WW1 was a family squabble between cousins.


11 posted on 07/27/2014 3:36:21 PM PDT by jmacusa (Liberalism defined: When mom and dad go away for the weekend and the kids are in charge.)
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To: DesertRhino

No country has allies, only ‘’interests’’.


12 posted on 07/27/2014 3:37:21 PM PDT by jmacusa (Liberalism defined: When mom and dad go away for the weekend and the kids are in charge.)
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To: afraidfortherepublic; allendale; Jimmy Valentine
"You English," he said, "are mad, mad, mad as March hares. What has come over you that you are so completely given over to suspicions quite unworthy of a great nation? What more can I do than I have done? I declared with all the emphasis at my command, in my speech at Guildhall, that my heart is set upon peace, and that it is one of my dearest wishes to live on the best of terms with England. Have I ever been false to my word ? Falsehood and prevarication are alien to my nature. My actions ought to speak for themselves, but you listen not to them but to those who misinterpret and distort them. That is a personal insult which I feel and resent. To be forever misjudged, to have my repeated offers of friendship weighed and scrutinized with jealous, mistrustful eyes, taxes my patience severely. I have said time after time that I am a friend of England, and your press --, at least, a considerable section of it -- bids the people of England refuse my proffered hand and insinuates that the other holds a dagger. How can I convince a nation against its will ?
The interview of the Emperor Wilhelm II on October 28, 1908.
London Daily Telegraph, October 28, 1908.
13 posted on 07/27/2014 3:41:34 PM PDT by nickcarraway
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To: afraidfortherepublic
So Graham Allison is still around. His book Essence of Decision: Explaining the Cuban Missile Crisis (Boston: Little, Brown, 1971) was for years required reading for students of political science and international relations.
14 posted on 07/27/2014 3:52:32 PM PDT by Fiji Hill
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To: afraidfortherepublic
I have often wondered if Victoria, had she lived just a little longer, could have put her foot down and reined in her idiot relatives. Probably not, as she would have been very aged by then, but to the last she did have the sort of authority that might have demanded it.

In truth, nobody wanted World War I in the form it ended up assuming. Nobody could even have imagined it. Too many wanted just enough conflict to satisfy their needs and assumed that it could be stopped when those were satisfied. The most ambitious of these intentions were those of Germany, whose leaders (not just the Kaiser) felt that a smashing victory in France would allow them to redeploy eastward in time to face the Russians in a one-front war. That, of course, presupposed a smashing victory in France along the lines of the Schlieffen Plan, whose execution they blew. And so they got what they wanted least, a two-front war with a growing list of combatants.

Christopher Clark describes the diplomatic dance leading up to the war in (tedious, I'm sorry) detail. What impresses me is that the actual cast of diplomats was (1) very small, (2) entrenched and self-preserving, and (3) entirely unavailable at critical moments. Barbara Tuchman has pointed out that mobilization, once started, tended to be an all-or-nothing proposition. Could the war have been prevented? Possibly. Could it have been stopped at a more manageable stage than it assumed? Once the invasion of Belgium began, I doubt it. Could Britain have stayed out, accepting the results in France come what they may? Yes, I think they might have done that, but it was a runaway train at that point and it is doubtful if only one brakeman could have stopped it.

Could the United States have stayed out? Absolutely. Unfortunately, at that point in the war (1917) the result would likely have been years more of bloody stalemate rather than the Armistice that ensued. Did the United States have diplomatic clout or presence sufficient to have stopped the thing in 1914? Absolutely not.

There is, incidentally, more literature on WWI in more languages and from more viewpoints than any human being can read in a lifetime. But I get the strong feeling that if one could ask any of the principals in 1914 how it would work out nearly everyone would describe it as a temporary descent into yet another of the recurring European wars instead of the plunge off a cliff it turned out to be.

15 posted on 07/27/2014 4:06:31 PM PDT by Billthedrill
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To: cpdiii

He and his wife have been a class act despite the media.

***
Well, now that they have cleaned up their act by not shacking up anymore.


16 posted on 07/27/2014 4:53:54 PM PDT by Bigg Red (31 May 2014: Obamugabe officially declares the USA a vanquished subject of the Global Caliphate.)
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To: afraidfortherepublic

But Woodrow Wilson wanted it.


17 posted on 07/27/2014 4:57:16 PM PDT by TBP (Obama lies, Granny dies.)
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To: Billthedrill

“The most ambitious of these intentions were those of Germany, whose leaders (not just the Kaiser) felt that a smashing victory in France would allow them to redeploy eastward in time to face the Russians in a one-front war.”

Germany didn’t want war any more than anyone else; they knew they were in the most precarious position of the major belligerents. Ironically, today they have what Hitler (not the Kaiser) had as his goal - domination of the European continent.


18 posted on 07/27/2014 6:08:40 PM PDT by kearnyirish2 (Affirmative action is economic warfare against white males (and therefore white families).)
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To: afraidfortherepublic

that is so sad


19 posted on 07/27/2014 6:10:49 PM PDT by yldstrk ( My heroes have always been cowboys)
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To: Billthedrill

“Could the United States have stayed out? Absolutely. Unfortunately, at that point in the war (1917) the result would likely have been years more of bloody stalemate rather than the Armistice that ensued.”

Before our entry into the war, Germany had practically won. Russia had surrendered (freeing a million+ troops for the western front), and French troops had mutinied. The impending Central Powers’ victory was WHY WE COULDN’T STAY OUT.


20 posted on 07/27/2014 6:12:16 PM PDT by kearnyirish2 (Affirmative action is economic warfare against white males (and therefore white families).)
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