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Miscalculation. Failure. Escalation - Why Putin Shot Down MH-17
forbes.com ^ | July 26, 2014 | Greg Satell

Posted on 07/26/2014 2:15:43 PM PDT by Tailgunner Joe

Why would the leader of a powerful country in reasonably good standing want to risk everything by putting himself in the same league with Muammar Gaddafi? ...Since the crisis began, he has been taking on ever greater risk—not to mention serious damage to the Russian economy—with negative return. ....

So it appears that Putin is not only a poor chess player, he is an exceeding bad poker player, constantly raising the stakes while facing a decreasing expected return. If he ever could return Ukraine to the fold—an exceedingly unlikely prospect—he would accomplish no more than a return to the status quo ante. ....

The pattern of events shows a dangerous pattern. At almost every stage, Putin miscalculates and then raises the ante. He clearly did not expect the protests that broke out against the scrapping of the EU Association agreement, nor did he foresee that the crackdown would bring even more people to the streets.

Miscalculation. Failure. Escalation. The pattern continued with the separatist movement. While it gained some traction in Donetsk and Luhansk, it went nowhere in most of the industrial East. Russian actions were quickly put down in Kharkiv, Zaporizhia, Dnipropetrovsk and Odessa, where most of Ukraine’s high level industry—not to mention a good bit of Russia’s military industry—is located.

After the election of Petro Poroshenko to Ukraine’s Presidency came more setbacks. The rebel strongholds of Slaviansk and Kramatorsk were retaken by Ukrainian anti-terrorist troops and they began moving toward Donetsk and Luhansk. So Putin escalated again, sending heavy artillery and more sophisticated weapons, including the one that shot down MH-17.

Miscalculation. Failure. Escalation. The downing of MH-17 is a logical consequence of the pattern.

(Excerpt) Read more at forbes.com ...


TOPICS: Editorial; Foreign Affairs; Russia
KEYWORDS: malaysia; russia; ukraine
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To: Fantasywriter

You’re right — trained bears could have explained it. That’s probably why the photos went viral so quickly — not much suspension of disbelief was required.


61 posted on 07/26/2014 4:32:25 PM PDT by USFRIENDINVICTORIA
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To: Tailgunner Joe

Really? Putin was out there lining up crosshairs and pulling triggers? Wow, talk about a man of the people, one of the commoners, an every man and a leader who actually gets out to see what’s really going on in his country. Nope, sorry, it was just as first reported by a bozo on twitter who didn’t have enough training to know the difference between a cargo plane and a passenger plane.


62 posted on 07/26/2014 5:08:51 PM PDT by bgill
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To: Fantasywriter

No comment. /s


63 posted on 07/26/2014 5:09:04 PM PDT by BigIsleGal (Wake Me Up When the Stupid Wears Off)
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To: 1rudeboy

So where are the Ukrainian radar tapes that refute the Russian data? Or is that why the Ukrainian prime minister and several cabinet members resigned on Friday?


64 posted on 07/26/2014 5:28:58 PM PDT by RaveOn ("No amount of logic can shatter a faith consciously based on a lie." Lamar Keene, "True Believers")
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To: BigIsleGal

At the 1.37 mark:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CVMBdi4dgME


65 posted on 07/26/2014 5:40:53 PM PDT by Fantasywriter (Any attempt to do forensic work using Internet artifacts is fraught with pitfalls. JoeProbono)
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To: Tailgunner Joe

All I know is that our president wants me to be mad at Putin, so I’m MAD AS HELL at Putin.

...by the way, where is our southern border?


66 posted on 07/26/2014 5:58:12 PM PDT by BobL
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To: USFRIENDINVICTORIA

After your initial comment, I’m inclined to believe you are right. However, there is a collection of Putin’s most egomaniacal photo ops on Youtube, & it opens with the bear pic. Granted it doesn’t have many views, but if it were definitely a photoshop, wouldn’t either the video’s poster or a commenter note that?

Also, isn’t it a little odd that the original pic of Putin galloping a horse across that same body of water hasn’t surfaced? Usually after a photoshop reaches a certain level of notoriety, the original pic is either revealed or located/unearthed.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Y-l-pv9DcnI


67 posted on 07/26/2014 6:00:16 PM PDT by Fantasywriter (Any attempt to do forensic work using Internet artifacts is fraught with pitfalls. JoeProbono)
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To: 1066AD

I wish we had a “like” button here sometimes.


68 posted on 07/26/2014 6:01:36 PM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet (The most dangerous man to any government is the man who is able to think things out for himself.)
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To: BobL

Just curious, are you capable of forming an opinion on your own? Or do you wait to see what Obama is doing?


69 posted on 07/26/2014 6:10:15 PM PDT by 1rudeboy
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To: RaveOn

You don’t know why the Ukrainian PM resigned? If that’s the case, what are your other qualifications? And let me ask you this, by claiming that there was a Ukrainian military jet in the vicinity, isn’t that a tacit admission that the separatists shot the jet down in the first place? Why do you need radar tapes?


70 posted on 07/26/2014 6:14:18 PM PDT by 1rudeboy
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To: 1rudeboy

“Just curious, are you capable of forming an opinion on your own? Or do you wait to see what Obama is doing?”

Generally I’m against what Obama is for, such as OPEN BORDERS.

...and yourself?


71 posted on 07/26/2014 6:30:43 PM PDT by BobL
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To: Tailgunner Joe
Oh. Please.

Putin is a winner here. Why does the writer think that Vlad cares about his good opinion?

72 posted on 07/26/2014 6:33:11 PM PDT by Mamzelle
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To: BobL

If you look hard enough, you might find an OPEN BORDERS thread around here, somewhere. /s


73 posted on 07/26/2014 6:33:55 PM PDT by 1rudeboy
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To: Tailgunner Joe

Miscalculation, failure, and indescisevness are found daily in the Oval Office.


74 posted on 07/26/2014 6:43:24 PM PDT by Sasparilla
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To: 1rudeboy

“You don’t know why the Ukrainian PM and cabinet members resign? If that’s the case, what are your other qualifications? And let me ask you this, by claiming that there was a Ukrainian military jet in the vicinity, isn’t that a tacit admission that the separatists shot the jet down in the first place? Why do you need radar tapes?”

Favor me. Why did the Ukrainian PM and members of his cabinet suddenly resign on Friday?

Radar tapes: there’s this little thing called “evidence” which seems to have fallen out of fashion among some FR posters. The Ukrainian fighter jet was recorded by Russian radar near the airliner before MH17 went off radar, and the Ukrainian government is silent on that.

Why?


75 posted on 07/26/2014 7:10:51 PM PDT by RaveOn ("No amount of logic can shatter a faith consciously based on a lie." Lamar Keene, "True Believers")
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To: Fantasywriter

Isnt’ it just a tad gullible to accept anything posted on social media as genuine?


76 posted on 07/26/2014 7:13:16 PM PDT by RaveOn ("No amount of logic can shatter a faith consciously based on a lie." Lamar Keene, "True Believers")
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To: 1rudeboy

“If that’s the case, what are your other qualifications?”

My other qualification is I’m a computer validation expert specializing in federal regulatory compliance. You wouldn’t want me in a jury pool.


77 posted on 07/26/2014 7:27:22 PM PDT by RaveOn ("No amount of logic can shatter a faith consciously based on a lie." Lamar Keene, "True Believers")
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To: RaveOn
...comes from the Russian government itself, not RT or Channel One. (I know enough to disregard anything that comes from those sources.)

LOL. What?

You wouldn’t want me in a jury pool.

You're right about that.

78 posted on 07/26/2014 7:48:18 PM PDT by FreeReign
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To: uncommonsense
Ha! Green screens! I can still program them!

Those big map displays must have cost a mint back then (1988).

79 posted on 07/26/2014 8:44:18 PM PDT by cynwoody
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To: ansel12
Why are you going after America with a lie?

Google is your friend. It helps you avoid coming across as a blithering idiot troll.

There is no comparison

Mistakes were made in 1988. Mistakes were made last week.

it does not justify your reassembling the evil empire.

Other than being the reason the Aegis system was developed, the Evil Empire played no role in the event.

80 posted on 07/26/2014 8:52:01 PM PDT by cynwoody
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