Scottish independence : Don’t leave us this way

The Economist ^ | 15 July 2014 | Economist

[Cronos]

Opinion polls suggest the Scots will decide against leaving, but it is the nationalists who have fire in their bellies, and Alex Salmond, the leader of the Scottish National Party (SNP), is a strong finisher. The campaign has been a bad-tempered one, marked by growing Scottish anger at English complacency and indifference while English resentment of Scottish whingeing and freeloading has risen

On economics, the nationalists say that Scots will be £1,000 a year better-off per head if they go it alone. That number, however, is based on implausible assumptions about the oil price, Scotland’s debt burden, demography and productivity. The British government’s estimate that Scots would be £1,400 a year better off per head if they stay in is based on more realistic assumptions. Scotland’s population is older and sicker than the British average, and productivity 11% lower than that of the rest of Britain. As a result, the state spends around £1,200 more per head on Scots than on the average Briton.

It is, of course, possible that independence would cure Scotland’s entitlement culture ..its two dominant parties—the SNP and Labour—.. statist philosophies are more likely to drive Edinburgh’s fund managers, Aberdeen’s oil-services engineers and other talented Scots south. Independence would also impose one-off costs: a new Scottish state would have to set up an army, a welfare system, a currency and much else

..Resentment of England lurks in the backdrop of Scottish nationalism. But in the foreground is not broadsword and targe but socialist dogma... Scotland is different from England because it is more left-wing—and only independence can deliver the social democracy Scots want....promising Scandinavian-style public services supported by taxation closer to American levels. That is fantasy, not socialism.

[Cronos]

from the article The United Kingdom embodies the belief that people with distinct histories and identities can live together, and that their diversity makes their culture, their economy and their polity stronger.

[Cronos]

If Scotland does leave I predict the following:

• It will be Scandanavian style socialism
• Shetland, Orkney and the Outer Hebrides will break away from Scotland
• Wales will eventually break away from England, perhaps in the next decade
• Northern Ireland will join Ireland -- the religious differences no longer are so wide
• The Labour party will be more entrenched in Yorkshire and Lancastershire while the Tories will be entrenched in the south. This could trigger a seccession movement over time
• England, even if not divided between north and south, will be a third rate power and really a rump state
• Catalonia and the Basque region will be moved to declare their own independence
• Perhaps even Brittany would push for it's independence (though I doubt it -- the centralising force in France is too strong)
• Belgium will permanently break with the north becoming Flanders (I doubt it would join the Netherlands)
• Bavaria will break away from Germany, perhaps Swabia as well (though I doubt the latter)
• Ditto for Sardinia and Corsica
• Italy will muddle through
• Macedonia will reunite with Bulgaria and Montenegro with Serbia and Romania with Moldovia
• This will completely up-end the power balance in the EU..

[AppyPappy]

The NPR report I heard seemed to lean towards Scotland staying because they need the Welfare money from the UK.

[VanDeKoik]

a new Scottish state would have to set up an army, a welfare system, a currency and much else”

Army? They will depend on the Royal Navy, RAF, and military to protect them. The UK will be treated as a buffer state.

Welfare? They are promising everyone free money. I guess oil money is what they are hoping to pay them off with.

Currency? They will either hop onto the Euro or leech off of the Pound.

[gr8eman]

Scottish banks print their own pounds in cash, not like coins from the Bank of England.
If they were smart they would sell gasoline at 5p above cost and set up petrol stations on the border with England along with restaurants, gambling etc. That's the only way they could successfully break away...like Las Vegas!!

[Reaganez]

“Macedonia will reunite with Bulgaria”

Although Macedonians see Bulgarians as kinsmen and fellow Slavs they are not the same nor will there be any peaceful reunification.

I know quite a few Macedonians from the Greater Chicago area and none see themselves as a part of Greater Bulgaria.

[Extremely Extreme Extremist]

Sean Connery/Rowdy Roddy Piper 2016

[OldNewYork]

And Harry Potter books will be unwelcome in government schools.

[BobL]

“Belgium will permanently break with the north becoming Flanders”

That one will probably happen before the end of the decade, with half of what is now the country being majority-Muslim before 2025.

[GeronL]

Let them go. They’ll be begging to be let in less than a decade.

[Cronos]

But by then it will be too late. Scotland will be in the EU and the break-up of the rest of the UK will be well underway

[EternalVigilance]

Edward I is going to have to come back from the grave and kick their butts all over again.

[GeronL]

Hopefully not.

I think Scotland is going to have to learn a lesson the hard way. Them leaving probably makes England more financially secure. I heard it was the same with Wales.

[GeronL]

I just do not understand how it will be “independent” if its part of the EU.

[Mitch86]

Lancashire. Not Lancastershire. The war of the roses are over mate.
Wales will never leave the UK. There is not enough appetite for it, plus who’d pay for their free NHS presecriptions?

[the scotsman]

Again?.

I am not a Scots Nationalist, a patriot though and I think youll find the Scots failed to be conquered by Edward and the English.

Edward may have won Dunbar and Falkirk, but he also had the massive defeat at Stirling Bridge, other smaller defeats, and ultimately Scotland prevailed.

[the scotsman]

Yes, we can. And it has worked for 307 years.