Daines will be GOPe, yes. But I still have him as more than a heavy favorite. Even with Walsh now the incumbent, he still leads in the polls routinely over 14%. He’s a savvy politician. My money is on him.
Your probably right about his chances but nobody should mistake him as having anything in common with a conservative.
So my answer to the op is also, what difference does it make..both parties do not want conservatives in their ranks.