Just Sayin...
I kind of think this is a clue:
“its transponder and other tracking systems were off.”
Also flying a few thousand feet below its last radar fix.
Sounds to me like plane made left turn, decending to get into the east west flight lanes and heading for, well, what could be west of where they were? TADA: Eastern coast of Africa. 777btw has a range of over 8000 miles with full fuel load. I don’t think we have a mechanical problem here. Pilot error or errored pilot perhaps.
Long before it gets to east Africa it would pass almost directly over Diego Garcia. Clearly we would have known of its approach 1500 klics out. The Indians would have acquired it earlier. It seems certain someone’s radars picked up something on a westerly heading over the Straits at 9,000 meters. Which military’s radar made the contact? Was the sighting reported up the chain? If it was Malaysian with their Brit roots I’d expect details of the contact and reports. Indonesia and Thai,not so much.