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ADP: Only 119K private-sector jobs added in April
Hotair ^ | 05/01/2013 | Ed Morrissey

Posted on 05/01/2013 6:35:31 AM PDT by SeekAndFind

Just before the ADP employment report was released this morning, I asked Business Insider’s Joseph Weisenthal to give me his prediction — a rather unfair request in retrospect, since the report was due in 2 minutes at that point. He graciously offered his prediction anyway:

@edmorrissey Hrm. I’ll go weak. 120K vs. expectations of 150k.

— Joseph Weisenthal (@TheStalwart) May 1, 2013

As it turns out, Joe was almost exactly correct:

Private sector employment increased by 119,000 jobs from March to April, according to the April ADP National Employment Report® , which is produced by ADP®, a leading provider of human capital management solutions, in collaboration with Moody’s Analytics. The report, which is derived from ADP’s actual payroll data, measures the change in total nonfarm private employment each month on a seasonally-adjusted basis. The March report, which reported job gains of 158,000, was revised downward to 131,000 jobs.

Goods-producing employment rose by 6,000 jobs in April, its slowest pace of growth in seven months. Though it accounted for most of the weakness in goods production job growth in March, construction growth picked up in April and the industry added 15,000 jobs over the month. Meanwhile, manufacturers shed 10,000 jobs in April—the first decline in three months and the largest since September 2012.

Service-providing jobs increased by 113,000, the weakest pace of growth in seven months.
Among the service industries reported by the ADP National Employment Report,
trade/transportation/utilities had the largest gain with 29,000 jobs added over the month. Professional/business services followed, adding 20,000 jobs, and financial activities added 7,000 jobs.

Normally we put the ADP results through the 60-80% rinse cycle, but they actually missed last month even with that in mind. Their sharp downward revision to the March numbers still puts their estimate far above the BLS figure of 88K in March.

Applying the 60-80% filter to ADP’s new numbers, that would give us a projected figure for the BLS jobs report due Friday at somewhere between 71,000 and 95,0000. That is an ugly, ugly range — at the low end, only half of what is needed just to keep up with population growth. And “ugly” is exactly the word CNBC uses in its headline:

Economists surveyed by Reuters expected the ADP report to show the private sector created 150,000 jobs in April, down from 158,000 in March.

“Nearly every industry has seen slower growth since the beginning of the year,” Moody’s economist Mark Zandi said on CNBC. “Smaller businesses are experiencing much weaker growth.”

Joe Weisenthal points out that manufacturing actually retreated:

The number is out and it’s weak. Analysts were looking for 150K new private sector jobs. …

This chart from the report is particularly interesting. According to ADP, manufacturing actually lost jobs!

Expect pessimism in the markets today, although most of this was probably already suspected. Even the higher expectation of 150K from ADP was a stagnation-level prediction. The BLS report is going to come in well short of that on Friday. Tomorrow, we should have Gallup’s data, and can start framing expectations of the official jobs report, and perhaps more importantly, predict whether the workforce numbers are still eroding past 34-year lows.


TOPICS: Business/Economy; Culture/Society
KEYWORDS: adp; jobs; unemployment

1 posted on 05/01/2013 6:35:31 AM PDT by SeekAndFind
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To: SeekAndFind

2 posted on 05/01/2013 6:36:06 AM PDT by SeekAndFind
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To: SeekAndFind

I’m guessing sociology, counseling and art appreciation.


3 posted on 05/01/2013 6:37:34 AM PDT by Gaffer
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To: SeekAndFind

119K is what fits in 2 NCAA Div 1 Football Stadiums on ANY given Fall Saturday.


4 posted on 05/01/2013 6:38:40 AM PDT by US Navy Vet (Go Packers! Go Rockies! Go Boston Bruins! See, I'm "Diverse"!)
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To: US Navy Vet

...for the ENTIRE country!


5 posted on 05/01/2013 6:40:57 AM PDT by US Navy Vet (Go Packers! Go Rockies! Go Boston Bruins! See, I'm "Diverse"!)
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To: SeekAndFind

In before “Unexpectedly?”


6 posted on 05/01/2013 6:47:52 AM PDT by Uncle Miltie (All observant Muslims want to kill you. If they don't, they are not really Muslims.)
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To: SeekAndFind
The money printing presses are still running. They've been printing monopoly money for years now.
Things are not always what they seem, and people will not be ready.
7 posted on 05/01/2013 6:50:49 AM PDT by concerned about politics ("Get thee behind me, Liberal")
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To: US Navy Vet; cripplecreek

That a normal Saturday afternoon at The Big House in Ann Arbor.


8 posted on 05/01/2013 7:04:45 AM PDT by Cletus.D.Yokel (Catastrophic Anthropogenic Climate Alteration: The acronym explains the science.)
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To: Gaffer
"I'm guessing sociology, counseling and art appreciation"

You're close. It's actually gender studies, pot appreciation and climate change.

9 posted on 05/01/2013 7:08:23 AM PDT by JPG (Stay strong.)
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To: JPG
....gender studies...

Is that what sane people call "bitter womens' studies?"

10 posted on 05/01/2013 7:14:09 AM PDT by Gaffer
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To: SeekAndFind

As long as stock brokers can buy and sell stocks to each other, getting commissions for every transaction, and having Bernanke buying U.S. debt to the tune of 85 billion every month and giving away free money, Wall St. will be happy to cash their checks from this phony “recovery.”


11 posted on 05/01/2013 7:20:58 AM PDT by txrefugee
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To: Gaffer
I’m guessing sociology, counseling and art appreciation.

I'm guessing engineering, physics, computer science.

Poor guy should have gotten an H-1B to go with the PhD...

12 posted on 05/01/2013 7:21:05 AM PDT by null and void (Republicans create the tools of oppression and Democrats use them. Gun confiscation enables tyranny.)
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To: null and void; Gaffer

13 posted on 05/01/2013 7:27:28 AM PDT by SeekAndFind
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To: SeekAndFind

I see her problem immediately ... she’s stupid enough to tell prospective employers that she spent $96,000 to acquire a degree studying the most useless crap in academia. What employer would want someone on their payroll that stupid?


14 posted on 05/01/2013 7:31:58 AM PDT by MHGinTN (Being deceived can be cured.)
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To: Gaffer
....gender studies...

Navel gazers unite!

15 posted on 05/01/2013 7:31:58 AM PDT by American in Israel (A wise man's heart directs him to the right, but the foolish mans heart directs him toward the left.)
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To: SeekAndFind

The headline in wide use standing alone and as a part of other financial news headlines:

ADP Jobs Numbers Disappoint


16 posted on 05/01/2013 7:32:15 AM PDT by John W (Viva Cristo Rey!)
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To: SeekAndFind

So if the private sector opened up 119,000 jobs, how many were new jobs and how many were refilling old jobs that people quit or were fired? And of those that were actually new jobs, I am curious how many people quit looking for jobs? How come they never quote job claims expiration figures?

Statistics lie, and liars use statistics.


17 posted on 05/01/2013 7:34:41 AM PDT by American in Israel (A wise man's heart directs him to the right, but the foolish mans heart directs him toward the left.)
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To: American in Israel

I prefer the socially conscious “Dyslexics Untie” battle cry.


18 posted on 05/01/2013 7:36:08 AM PDT by Gaffer
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To: SeekAndFind
For comparison here is the ADP Payrolls Change dating back to 2000:


19 posted on 05/01/2013 7:40:37 AM PDT by Wyatt's Torch (I can explain it to you. I can't understand it for you.)
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To: SeekAndFind
And since NFP is coming up on Friday, here is the comparison of the ADP report versus the BLS NFP Report back to 2001


20 posted on 05/01/2013 7:45:09 AM PDT by Wyatt's Torch (I can explain it to you. I can't understand it for you.)
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To: SeekAndFind

This news is being buried in the Main Stream Media. 119,000 is 2380 average per state, not a positive sign for the economy.


21 posted on 05/01/2013 7:53:35 AM PDT by Fully Awake DAV (Navy Vet when homosexuality was not tolerated)
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To: JPG; Gaffer

Not necessarily. Hordes of foreigners are coming into the country and accepting measly pay for jobs in science and technology. One of our sons had to settle for years of low-paying post doc grant funded jobs, and he has a doctorate in toxicology. Everybody is having trouble finding work in Obama’s socialist utopia.


22 posted on 05/01/2013 8:07:12 AM PDT by Pining_4_TX (All those who were appointed to eternal life believed. Acts 13:48)
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To: Pining_4_TX

I empathize for your son’s situation. Yet I still maintain a marketable education is one that is desired amongst the capitalistic movers and shakers of this economy.

Granted, a PHD in toxicology on its face seems marketable, but where? In what context? You have to admit, Obama-sympathized or controlled media certainly does their own specious science - perhaps some of what they misinform the masses about includes toxicology....

Science and truth doesn’t matter to them. Only goals - their goals. And those goals aren’t remotely related to “science”.....I give you Global Warming or only a few of the CDC’s ideologically biased “studies” as an example.


23 posted on 05/01/2013 8:15:37 AM PDT by Gaffer
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To: Pining_4_TX
I trust your son was an exception to the majority of PhD holders who eagerly voted for Obama. That the economy/job market sucks due to collectivist WH leadership is a reality they've yet come to grips with.
24 posted on 05/01/2013 8:18:35 AM PDT by JPG (Stay strong.)
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To: Gaffer

I’m not sure how much education means in our current economic situation. The people who are finding jobs are those with work experience, and particularly, those who know how to do something, as opposed to just knowing something.

People who are experienced and know how to cut hair, repair things, operate complex machinery, for example, will always be in demand. Considering our slide into socialism, they may have to participate in the underground economy to make a living, but their skills will always be in demand.

People who are educated, but not skilled are the ones who are going to be in trouble when everything falls apart.

BTW, our son has a good job now with a company supplying research material for pharmaceutical companies (not that I really understand what he does), but who knows what will happen when Obamacare is fully implemented? I can’t believe people in this country are giving up the best medical care in the world for 3rd world socialized medicine.


25 posted on 05/01/2013 8:25:08 AM PDT by Pining_4_TX (All those who were appointed to eternal life believed. Acts 13:48)
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To: JPG

Ha, if he did vote for Obama, I’m going to smack him the next time I see him!

No, he didn’t. :-)


26 posted on 05/01/2013 8:26:19 AM PDT by Pining_4_TX (All those who were appointed to eternal life believed. Acts 13:48)
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To: SeekAndFind; null and void; Gaffer; MHGinTN
Thanks to Photoshop, we may never know what the sign originally said:


27 posted on 05/01/2013 8:35:15 AM PDT by J÷tunn
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To: Pining_4_TX

I am glad your son found a job that is meaningful and applicable to his discipline.

Also, before I retired 15 months ago, I ran an engineering division of about 34-35 engineers. All masters and PhD educated. The last PhD I hired out of school with no work experience took the offer at $90K+ The lowest salary I had for any of my people was in the $65-70K range - fresh out of school.


28 posted on 05/01/2013 10:38:53 AM PDT by Gaffer
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To: J├Âtunn

Yeah...you could see the pixel change where the rewritten lines were added...


29 posted on 05/01/2013 10:53:36 AM PDT by Gaffer
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