You would have to define “win”.
In an odd sort of way, I think that both California and Texas would define it the same way : Fedgov, get out of our business.
I mean to my mind the beauty of the original intent is to have a bunch of experiments in government running at the same time with a common defense, commerce and currency.
I don't see California as a leader, not with the current governor, nor with the percentage of illegal aliens and sympathizers. I think Governor Moonbeam would go running to the Fedgov for a bailout or rescue, and as soon as it happened, it would be back to business as usual.