Skip to comments.The Next Oil Revolution
Posted on 11/17/2012 9:08:10 PM PST by neverdem
By Peter C Glover
Far from running out of oil, new studies confirm the world is headed for the next oil revolution with growing US production playing an nascent role. And, as with the unconventional shale gas revolution, nearly all new unconventional oil development is taking place despite pre-election White House energy polices through development on private, rather than on federal, lands.
A new IHS CERA group study Americas New Energy Future: The Unconventional Oil and Gas Revolution and the US Economy, spells out how unconventional oil and gas production in the US is changing the US energy landscape and contributing significant economic growth, job creation and federal revenues. The report shows how the unconventional oil and gas sector will support over 1.7 million jobs at higher than average wages. That figure is anticipated to increase to 2.5 million by 2015 and 3.5 million by 2035.
According to IHS vice chairman Daniel Yergin, The United States currently has the highest rate of growth in crude oil production capacity in the world while being virtually self-sufficient in gas, except for some from Canada. All a stark contrast to the doom and gloom predictions envisioning a heavy dependence on oil and gas imports just a few years ago. Yergin points out how the growth of unconventional oil and gas capacity, is creating a new energy reality for the United States that has contributed to U.S. energy security and is proving a significant source of new jobs and economic activity at a time when the economy is the top priority.
The reports findings include:
John Larson, IHS Vice president for public sector consulting, further observes that the collusion between unconventional oil and gas production and the high capital-intensive supply chain will make the US a world leader with most of the dollars spent here and supporting American jobs.
All of which bears out what former oil executive and research fellow at The Belfer Center, Leonardo Maugeri was predicting in August. After a field-by-field analysis of the bulk of the worlds major oil exploration and development projects, Maugeris report(PDF) concluded that, by 2020, the worlds oil production capacity could be more than 110 million barrels per day (bpd), an increase of 20 percent. And Maugeri predicts that the four leading producers will be Iraq, the United States, Canada and Brazil. Neither is it hard to see where it will come from as new technologies have made formerly difficult to extract deposits more commercially viable. Maugeri even predicts a global glut of oil after 2015 that could lead to a collapse in prices. He also foresees that the coming oil boom will become a fault-line environmentalists and the oil industry.
Such are the opportunities elsewhere that even the lure of vast oil and gas resources in the Arctic may be on hold though the US Interior Department is selling 4.5 million acres of Arctic land leases for exploration in November.
According to the International Energy Agency (IEA) and the US Energy Administration (EIA) between 89 and 90 million bpd will be consumed in 2013. Global oil production has never exceeded 74 million bpd. In recent years, natural gas liquids and other liquids have made up the difference and will, together with already stored oil and innovations like natural gas to drive trucks and buses, continue to do so in the short term. However, the contribution from Canadas oil sands, US shale oil, Brazils presalt oil among other resources is set to have an increasingly dramatic impact ushering in a new age of plentiful oil.
As one commentator on the coming oil boom put it, Its yet another reminder that what the expert consensus assure us to be true very often isnt adding It was equally apparent we were running out of oil until we werent.
Equally, aiding the discovery of an abundance of relatively cheap hydrocarbons is something President Obama could claim as a vote-winning personal achievement except it isnt.
I bet its Kills Obama
I bet its Kills Obama
I bet Obama tries to kill it.
Well, at least Interior is selling 4.5 million acres of oil land leases in Alaska. That sounds like a fairly large area. I have heard that one of the issues on public lands has been that companies were just sitting on leases and not doing anything with them so a bunch were canceled to be reactivated, or something like that. Hopefully someone here is more knowledgeable and can clarify this issue.
You have a regime which by design was driving up the costs and uses of energy the most a basic resource because it suits its socialist matrix. Whats even worse is the massive corrpution resulting from that regime doling out tons of funds towards its campaign donners for so called alternate forms which dont work or are laughingly inefficient . That got a pass by the Romney campaign and a huge mistake because this policy affected everyone. It was a bread a butter issue affecting all Americans.
Thank God for Big Oil and the coming American oil boom. It’s one of the few reasons for optimism these days.
"Unconventional oil and gas activity will generate over $61 billion in federal and state tax revenues in 2012, rising to $91 billion annually in 2015 and $111 billion by 2020."We need to starve the beast, not feed it. Cut the size and scope of government, not increase funding.
For starters, start up the refinery on the California coast that they have stopped from using for over 40 years.
is there some reason that shale oil
only exists in North America?
is shale oil existed worldwide,
the Arab hegemony would be broken
Oil shale is not exclusive to the U.S.A.
I believe it requires specialized equipment to find it, however.
I wonder whether these particular leases are the best leases?
I hope it kills Biden too!
You are correct. China has the largest holdings in the world. The U.S. has the lead in exploration technology and knowledge - after all we started the oil industry, from exploration and production to refining. That leadership is something most politicians don’t ever appreciate. It’s a leadership lead as wide as our IT technology lead. So you can bet that as China and others seek to use their new-found reserves, they will turn to U.S. companies for help.
Don' let em bamboozle ya kid!
What good is a lease if they won't let you have a drilling permit, won't approve the site construction, the well plan, etc.?
If you find oil, you still have to get it to market, no road, no pipeline permit, no EIS approval for the righto-of-way, you aren't going to make a dime, but the costs can run into the billions (right, with a 'b'). Oil companies are visionary in that they are always looking for 'the next big thing', but even so, dumping a lot of money into Exploration with little chance for payout is a great way to crash your company.
For now, the easier pickings are in the lower 48, on private leases, especially with the administration making noises about ending "subsidies" (which are the ordinary business expenses other industries deduct, not a payment by the government to the oil industry).
In reality, most oil companies pay three times as much in taxes as they make in profit.
So you want lower inefficiencies combined with more infrastructure being built, to duplicate existing capacity.
And you think that lowers cost?