Sorry, Larry, but the news out of both Colorado (positive early and absentee vote Republican as is expected Election Day turnout) and New Hampshire (Romney winning independents) draw Obama down to 278 from your total of 290. Wisconsin could be the linchpin; if Romney wins it, it takes Obama down to 268 and Romney at 270.
I’ve been saying for weeks now Romney’s best shot is to win narrowly with FL, NC, VA, CO, NH and WI, losing OH, PA, MI, IA, NV, etc. But that is an oddball combination of states for a Republican to win with, mainly because of the OH/WI party swap. Not to mention no president has won since 1980 without both OH and NV in his column.
The fact that VA seems to be in play again and Romney has spent so much time there this week has been a major enthusiasm damper for me. Romney losing VA and still managing to win (by flipping PA?) is an even more oddball scenario.
It seems to me that Romney winning at this point has to either defy some solid historical trends, if it’s a narrow win, or erase a week’s worth of gains in the polls for Obama in 1-2 days, if it’s a 300+ EV win. One of them could happen but I wouldn’t bet my house on it.