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Sabato's Crystal Ball (Larry Predicts a 2nd Term for Obama)
Center for Politics ^ | November 5, 2012 | Larry Sabato

Posted on 11/05/2012 8:01:38 AM PST by Livin_large

With a slight, unexpected lift provided by Hurricane Sandy, Mother Nature’s October surprise, President Barack Obama appears poised to win his second term tomorrow. Our final Electoral College projection has the president winning the key swing states of Colorado, Iowa, Nevada, New Hampshire, Ohio and Wisconsin and topping Mitt Romney, with 290 electoral votes.

This has been a roller-coaster campaign, though very tight ever since Romney dramatically outshone Obama in the first debate in Denver on Oct. 3. Yet for a challenger to defeat an incumbent, the fates must be with the challenger again and again. Who could have imagined that a Frankenstorm would act as a circuit-breaker on the Republican’s campaign, blowing Romney off center stage for three critical days in the campaign’s last week, while enabling Obama to dominate as presidential comforter-in-chief, assisted by his new bipartisan best friend, Gov. Chris Christie (R)?

(Excerpt) Read more at centerforpolitics.org ...


TOPICS: Government; News/Current Events; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: election; poll; romney; sabato
I am not a fear monger, nor do I want to spread doom and gloom among my fellow Freepers. I do like to look at all information, even if I don't agree with it, so look this over and take it for what it's worth...hopefully nothing!

Regardless of what any poll say's, I've been waiting feverishly for four years to vote against Obama...again! and tomorrow I'll do just that!

Pray for our nation!

1 posted on 11/05/2012 8:01:39 AM PST by Livin_large
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To: Livin_large

Fox News will drop Larry from their talking head rotation after tomorrow - if they are smart!


2 posted on 11/05/2012 8:04:42 AM PST by Red_Devil 232 (VietVet - USMC All Ready On The Right? All Ready On The Left? All Ready On The Firing Line!)
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To: Livin_large

Larry, as usual, is full of a couple things. Himself for one. Everyone knows the other.


3 posted on 11/05/2012 8:05:30 AM PST by John W (Viva Cristo Rey!)
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To: Livin_large

Sebato is an idiot. He wanted an Obama win from the start. I’ll take the prediction of an expert like Barone over some teachers lounge chuckle head.


4 posted on 11/05/2012 8:05:49 AM PST by Viennacon
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To: Livin_large

Sobato basically believes there is going to be clean sweep of all the remaining swing states, that’s a pipe dream and goes against most of the prevailing data. Romney is not likely to lose NH, CO, OH, IA, and WI. Even if he loses, he’ll win a couple of those.


5 posted on 11/05/2012 8:06:13 AM PST by ilgipper (Obama supporters are comprised of the uninformed & the ill-informed)
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To: ilgipper

Sabato was one of the reasons Virginia went for the Kenyan in 2008.


6 posted on 11/05/2012 8:09:16 AM PST by NKP_Vet
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To: ilgipper

Sadly......Sebato has always been an Obamabot!!! Without going into detail, Sebato is dead wrong on many counts. Nice fellow....but his mind is cloude by
Obama “bias”, always has been!!! Romney wins in a landslide!!!


7 posted on 11/05/2012 8:11:38 AM PST by JLAGRAYFOX ( My only objective is to defeat and destroy Obama & his Democrat Party, politically!!!)
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To: Livin_large

8 posted on 11/05/2012 8:12:29 AM PST by frankenMonkey
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To: ilgipper

Sadly......Sebato has always been an Obamabot!!! Without going into detail, Sebato is dead wrong on many counts. Nice fellow....but his mind is clouded by
Obama “bias”, always has been!!! Romney wins in a landslide!!!


9 posted on 11/05/2012 8:12:35 AM PST by JLAGRAYFOX ( My only objective is to defeat and destroy Obama & his Democrat Party, politically!!!)
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To: Livin_large
It's an opinion. Opinions are like noses...
As others have said on this board, if our nation is so full of voters that would ignore the incredibly destructive effects this socialist wannabe administration has had on our economy and nation, then we have more to worry about than this election. Having said that, I'm absolutely done with Christie. He could have played this much, much better.
10 posted on 11/05/2012 8:13:05 AM PST by pieceofthepuzzle
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To: Livin_large

Sabato slithers out from under his rock at the 11th hour and unburdens himself of his fondest wishes.

Too bad faculty positions aren’t performance-based.

(And to think Mrs. Bears is a UVA grad.)


11 posted on 11/05/2012 8:13:41 AM PST by Arm_Bears (Be cheerful, be confident, and VOTE!!)
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To: NKP_Vet

He has earned the moniker Larry ‘Sabotage’.


12 posted on 11/05/2012 8:16:37 AM PST by MissMagnolia (Being powerful is like being a lady. If you have to tell people you are, you aren't. (M.Thatcher))
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To: JLAGRAYFOX

Hopefully it will be a landslide! These building reports of voting machines switching votes is having me worried!!!


13 posted on 11/05/2012 8:16:56 AM PST by ObozoMustGo2012
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To: Livin_large

Larry’s crystal ball is like a old black & white TV with very bad, fuzzy reception.


14 posted on 11/05/2012 8:16:58 AM PST by DarthVader (Politicians govern out of self interest, Statesmen govern for a Vision greater than themselves)
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To: Livin_large; All
*KOOL-AID DRINKER ALERT*

15 posted on 11/05/2012 8:18:59 AM PST by skinkinthegrass (Anger a Conservative by telling a lie; Anger a Liberal by telling the truth. - RWR 8-)
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To: Livin_large

Pulled together a conservative scenario (R=272, O=266) with Ohio going to Obama and no wild Rust Belt surprises like PA, MN or MI. Also, no optimism for Romney in either NV or NM.

Factored in a 3-Obama and 1-Romney split in Maine as provided in their EC charter. This scenario assumes wins in NH and WI, which are looking good for Romney and places these leaners; FL, NC and VA in the Romney column as well.


16 posted on 11/05/2012 8:20:09 AM PST by CreviceTool ( Obama is standing above the country above - above the world, he is sort of a God = Evan Thomas)
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To: CreviceTool

Sorry, Larry, but the news out of both Colorado (positive early and absentee vote Republican as is expected Election Day turnout) and New Hampshire (Romney winning independents) draw Obama down to 278 from your total of 290. Wisconsin could be the linchpin; if Romney wins it, it takes Obama down to 268 and Romney at 270.


17 posted on 11/05/2012 8:25:45 AM PST by laconic
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To: CreviceTool

yup this is my map too. It’s going to be tight.


18 posted on 11/05/2012 8:30:16 AM PST by HenryArmitage (it was not meant that we should voyage far.)
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To: Livin_large

Sabato predicted a John Kerry victory.


19 posted on 11/05/2012 8:30:42 AM PST by bjcoop
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To: Livin_large
The numbers & pundits try to forecast--
.....Then they show up on TV to tell us about the authoritative aggregate voice of "We The People..." in these elections....

*************

12_1106RFRNDM_5

*************

On Tuesday evening --- "We The People..." will have had our say...
... At last... ONLY ONE POLL REALLY COUNTS!

*********

Personally...

I think God will also have His say in this matter...
... There will be some wonderfully special results that we don't yet see or expect....
... I believe America will see His heart and His strong hands

Over the last two years....
The concert of prayer has grown from tearful whispers into a bold outcry...

We'll soon see and know...

20 posted on 11/05/2012 8:31:18 AM PST by Wings-n-Wind (The main things are the plain things!)
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To: Livin_large
I just went back and read Sabato's last couple predictions for 2004, he was predicting that John Kerry would win the popular vote by a slim margin, but the electoral college was too close to call, (he actually punted and predicted a tie)and noted that George W. Bush was leading but within the margin of error in every swing state and said this was very bad for an incumbent.

So fast forward to 2012, now we have Obama doing far worse than Bush in 2004, tied in virtually every swing state (and Romney ahead in few). But according to Sabato, the race is over, he's calling it 100% Obama. Yeah, no agenda there...

21 posted on 11/05/2012 8:42:43 AM PST by apillar
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To: bjcoop
Sabato predicted a John Kerry victory.

And the 2004 race was never as close as the public polling showed. Sabato is missing the data coming out of Colorado, and he's plain wrong about Ohio (and he doesn't even see it coming in Wisconsin, but it is).

22 posted on 11/05/2012 8:43:42 AM PST by TonyInOhio (Remember: THE EXIT POLLS ARE WRONG!)
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To: JLAGRAYFOX; All

Why does anyone care what this obtuse fool believes?


23 posted on 11/05/2012 8:46:09 AM PST by stephenjohnbanker ((God, family, country, mom, apple pie, the girl next door and a Ford F250 to pull my boat.))
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To: Livin_large

If Obozo STEALS this election, then our Constitution will be dead.


24 posted on 11/05/2012 8:46:35 AM PST by SoldierDad (Proud dad of an Army Soldier who has survived 24 months of Combat deployment.)
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To: Livin_large

If Obozo STEALS this election, then our Constitution will be dead.


25 posted on 11/05/2012 8:48:01 AM PST by SoldierDad (Proud dad of an Army Soldier who has survived 24 months of Combat deployment.)
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To: Livin_large

Gingrich was on with Laura Ingraham this morning and he predicts 300+ electoral votes for Romney, 53% Romney/47% Obama.


26 posted on 11/05/2012 8:48:19 AM PST by sheikdetailfeather (Yuri Bezmenov (KGB Defector) - "Kick The Communists Out of Your Govt. & Don't Accept Their Goodies.")
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To: laconic; CreviceTool

I’ve been saying for weeks now Romney’s best shot is to win narrowly with FL, NC, VA, CO, NH and WI, losing OH, PA, MI, IA, NV, etc. But that is an oddball combination of states for a Republican to win with, mainly because of the OH/WI party swap. Not to mention no president has won since 1980 without both OH and NV in his column.

The fact that VA seems to be in play again and Romney has spent so much time there this week has been a major enthusiasm damper for me. Romney losing VA and still managing to win (by flipping PA?) is an even more oddball scenario.

It seems to me that Romney winning at this point has to either defy some solid historical trends, if it’s a narrow win, or erase a week’s worth of gains in the polls for Obama in 1-2 days, if it’s a 300+ EV win. One of them could happen but I wouldn’t bet my house on it.


27 posted on 11/05/2012 8:48:49 AM PST by JediJones (Vote NO on Proposition Zero! Tuesday, November 6th!)
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To: sheikdetailfeather

Gingrich has been saying that for 2 weeks since before Obama’s recent bump in the polls. For him to be right, you have to believe that bump won’t help Obama at all in the final vote.

And Dick Morris is basing his similar prediction on the party ID poll done by Gallup which also was done a couple weeks ago before Obama’s bump.


28 posted on 11/05/2012 8:52:02 AM PST by JediJones (Vote NO on Proposition Zero! Tuesday, November 6th!)
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To: Livin_large

Pre-election polls reflect 9% of the populace. They are worthless. The only poll that counts is the one we take tomorrow.


29 posted on 11/05/2012 8:55:01 AM PST by secret garden (Why procrastinate when you can perendinate?)
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To: Livin_large

Which ever way the election goes there will be a large group of pundits eating crow.


30 posted on 11/05/2012 9:02:35 AM PST by Iron Munro ("Strange how paranoia can link up with reality now and then." -- Philip K. Dick)
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To: ObozoMustGo2012

Don’t be too discouraged about those voting machines.

It seems that the reports are coming from people using new touch screen voting machines.

If you’ve ever used a touch screen, say on a tablet or smart phone, you know how inadvertent touches, by trailing fingers, the edge of one’s hand, etc., can cause these screens to sense that as a signal.

You all can do a great service by telling anyone, especially older folks who might never have used a touch screen, how important it is not to drag one’s fingers or hand across the screen, but rather make deliberate contact on the screen with whatever you wish to turn on. In other words, don’t press around the button or checkmark or whatever or put your whole hand on it, but touch it right in the center.


31 posted on 11/05/2012 9:08:34 AM PST by Alas Babylon!
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To: JediJones

In all of the poll analysis, they never mention NEW registrations in the swing states. How much might that factor in?


32 posted on 11/05/2012 9:08:44 AM PST by sanjuanbob
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To: Livin_large

Does anyone care what Mr. Creosote thinks?


33 posted on 11/05/2012 9:08:45 AM PST by null and void (Day 1385 of the Obama hostage crisis - Barack Hussein Obama an enemy BOTH foreign AND domestic)
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To: bjcoop
Sabato predicted a John Kerry victory.

Not according to their website. The crystal ball for 2004 has Sabato predicting a tie.

http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/ljs2004110101/

Bush: 269 Electoral Votes / Kerry: 269 Electoral Votes

From the their final crystal ball statement in 2004:

We don’t really believe the tie, but if ever there is a year that will produce an Electoral College tie–given 10 tied polls at the end–it is 2004. We really think that if turnout hovers around 115 million to 117 million Bush has the edge, but if turnout truly skyrockets, most of those new voters will not be coming out to say, “Good job Mr. President,” and Kerry will pull the upset.

So where do you come up with the idea he predicted a Kerry victory? I mean, at the end, when he makes his real predictions. Seems like he predicted a tie to me.

This just looks like more attacking the analyst/commentator because folks don't like what they have to say.

34 posted on 11/05/2012 9:11:08 AM PST by Longbow1969
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To: JediJones

Romney was going to win Virginia BEFORE the Kenyan pissed off every active duty and Navy veteran in the state by saying he was cutting the size of the Navy. The “toss-up” then went to SOLID ROMNEY, and anyone that believes otherwise aint playing with a full deck. Romney will carry Virginia and NC, easily.


35 posted on 11/05/2012 9:12:05 AM PST by NKP_Vet
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To: pieceofthepuzzle
>>>As others have said on this board, if our nation is so full of voters that would ignore the incredibly destructive effects this socialist wannabe administration has had on our economy and nation, then we have more to worry about than this election.

I am in full agreement. As much damage as I think Obama will do in a second term...the scariest aspect of an Obama win is that we've lost the country.

This is by far the easiest decision in our nation's history. We have a side lying, cheating and stealing...who've accomplished nothing but pass legislation a majority did not want. If a majority the American People can't see that then we are toast.

36 posted on 11/05/2012 9:13:10 AM PST by NELSON111
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To: Livin_large
From wiki:

Prior to his time as a political analyst, Sabato worked for nine years with Virginia Democratic politician Henry Howell. At the age of 15, Sabato joined Howell's first campaign for the Virginia governorship in 1968, and then worked on his successful run for lieutenant governor in 1971, and his campaigns for governor in 1973 and 1977.[3] [edit]

37 posted on 11/05/2012 10:43:05 AM PST by parisa
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To: Livin_large

Sabato’s predictions are reasonable.

I disagree with them and think Romney squeaks by in Ohio and wins the election, but his take isn’t far fetched at all.


38 posted on 11/05/2012 11:34:02 AM PST by comebacknewt (Newt (sigh) what could have been . . .)
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To: ilgipper

Still over 9 percent of the sheeple have no clue about who to vote for or even if they will vote at all. All 9 percent should just stay home or wherever they happen to live.

Reader Poll

Who is getting your vote for president?
Barack Obama 35.1%
Mitt Romney 52.8%
A third-party candidate 2.8%
I still don’t know 4.6%
I’m not voting 4.8%

Freep if you like:

http://www.dailyherald.com/news/region/

Scroll down the page.


39 posted on 11/05/2012 11:55:19 AM PST by KeyLargo
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To: JediJones

I hate to say it becuase people on this site do not like any negative news, I don’t see Romney losing the popular vote but I believe it will be much harder to win the Electoral Vote. I’m not a seer, but my guess at this hour woujld be Romney 50, Obama 48, with a narrow win for the socialist in the EV. The larger the popular vote margin the better as it will diminish any “left fringe’ program he plans to implement.


40 posted on 11/05/2012 12:16:03 PM PST by laconic
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To: NELSON111
I am in full agreement. As much damage as I think Obama will do in a second term...the scariest aspect of an Obama win is that we've lost the country. This is by far the easiest decision in our nation's history. We have a side lying, cheating and stealing...who've accomplished nothing but pass legislation a majority did not want. If a majority the American People can't see that then we are toast.

Well put.

41 posted on 11/05/2012 12:43:21 PM PST by RightWingNilla
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