Skip to comments.Zogby/Washington Times Poll shows Obama, Romney in a dead heat (49% to 49%)
Posted on 11/01/2012 6:17:23 PM PDT by Arthurio
President Obama and Mitt Romney are deadlocked with each holding 49 percent support nationally as they head into Tuesdays election, though Mr. Romney holds a lead on enthusiasm, according to this weeks The Washington Times/Zogby Poll of likely voters, released Thursday night.
Mr. Obama has more votes already in the bank: About a quarter of those surveyed said theyve cast their ballots by absentee or early voting, and they broke 53 percent to 45 percent in favor of the president.
But Mr. Romney, the Republican nominee, leads when it comes to those who have yet to hit the polling booth but who said they are certain or very likely to make it on Tuesday suggesting that his key to victory is persuading his backers to actually turn out next week.
When it comes to issues, the president leads when voters are asked about foreign affairs, national security, energy and immigration, but Mr. Romney has a lead when it comes to handling jobs and the economy, which have dominated this years election.
Its what brings it to a tie the fact that he does better on the economy, said John Zogby, The Times pollster, who said it reminded him of the 2004 race, when Democratic nominee John F. Kerry led President George W. Bush on every issue except for national security, where the incumbent held a commanding lead, which powered him to re-election.
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(Excerpt) Read more at washingtontimes.com ...
Then Obama will win. Machines will be rigged, ballots found, illegals voting.
national numbers don’t matter.. Ohio matters.
Reading between the lines, Zogby’s comments seem to suggest he is anticipating a Romney victory.
While I don’t give much credence to anything Zogby says, it is at least nice to see another leftist acknowledging the President has some serious problems heading into Tuesday.
From John Nolte at Breitbart
Once again, pollsters can claim they aren’t weighting Party ID to benefit Obama, but if their LV screen is loosened, it has the exact same effect, because more Democrats make it into the LV pool of voters. The best example of this arrived yesterday with three Quinnipiac polls that showed Obama winning in Ohio, Virginia, and Florida.
In the wave election of 2008, Democrats enjoyed turnout advantages of D+5 in OH; D+6 in VA; and D+3 in Florida. Yesterday’s much publicized Quinnipiac polls predicted Obama’s turnout advantage in those states would actually increase this year: VA: D+8 — FL: D+7 — OH: D+8.
But if Quinnipiac doesn’t weight for Party ID, where did that result come from?
Those three Quinnipiac polls are really RV polls. Normally, when looking for the more accurate LV pool of voters, most pollsters tighten the screen to qualify as a LV with the kinds of questions that screen out somewhere between 20 to 30% of RVs. Quite incredibly, Quinnipiac only screened out 4% of RVs. If you release a poll where 96% of RVs make it through the LV screen, you are releasing a RV poll — which of course includes more Democrats and favors Obama.
Quinnipiac is just one example of another reason we’re seeing most state and some national polls claiming Obama has a small but persistent lead thanks to a D+5 to D+8 turn out advantage.
What is the D/R/I ratio and the % women.
Without knowing that the poll tells us nothing.
All this is about is a lame attempt to drive Democrats to the polls with the false impression that it's close - when it is not.
Your polls are NOT breaking news.
The Disaster has had a huge drop in Zogby over the last month. Nine points. So the momentum is against him as is the enthusiasm gap.
Blah, blah, blah.
I’m fed up to the back teeth with all this crap reporting.
We were told by all media outlets (including Fox) that the Wisconsin Recall was TOO CLOSE TO CALL. That was absolute crap.
We were told by all media outlets that Kerry had a 5 point lead in OH days before the 2004. Bush won OH.
NO media outlet predicted the 2010 Republican WAVE. Not a single one.
What I know for SURE is even in over-sampled Dim polls, the independents are abandoning Zero and going over to Romney. Republicans are FIRED UP and Dims are dejected.
Can’t find the tabs but ZOgby is exactly 180 degrees out from Pew and Gallup on those who already voted.
“national numbers dont matter..”
Yeah, people keep saying that.. but they’re going to be singing a different tune after Tuesday, when the national numbers prove to be far more accurate than state polls.
I’m not a big fan of Romney, but the idea that Obama could be seen as his equal is the stuff of Alice in Wonderland.
If this polling figure is correct, then we’re getting nowhere near the independent vote that some polls showed we were going to. Blacks have not peeled off. Hispanics haven’t either.
And the nation is F’d.
If this is true, then we better start looking for alternatives.
Yes, bolt or revolt would then be the major discussion of FR.
One word: Bullshit.
...the president leads when voters are asked about foreign affairs, national security, energy and immigration, but Mr. Romney has a lead when it comes to handling jobs and the economy...And which voters were asked about foreign affairs, national security, energy, and immigration? Foreign voters from OPEC countries like Mexico?
Nice to see that Zogpiss has decided to join the “race is tied” party with his sauced internet poll. When will those joke of a swing state tracking polls start following suit.
Zogby is a Muzzy zero jock supporter, so a tied poll is good news.
Get this crap out of here!
Dead heat, my ass!
Let’s get on with it. I’m tired of polls. I’m also sick of finding out how stupid half of my country is....probably 47% of them at least.
The polls are schizophrenic. I honestly have no idea who is going to win this thing. It’s going to be a looong night.
Obama under 50%-he will lose.
We will see the Independent vote on Nov.6th and it will be big for Romney.
The reason why “Ohio matters” is because the GOP candidate virtually always (at least in the last 13 or so elections) does better than his national numbers in Ohio.
All these lefty pollsters and MSM anchors will be flabbergasted on Tues when Mitt wins handily. I can hear it now “well we didn’t see this one coming”. Sure they did.
I dont get why RCP doesn’t include Zogby.
Guys, here’s what I’ve concluded after pouring over articles, election history, and polls:.
1) Independents most often break for the challenger.
2) An encumbant below 50% in the polls this late in the election always loses.
3)Us conservatives are ready to crawl through broken glass to kick Obama out of office.
So, we have much to be optimistic about and to lean on in time of doubt.
The media will be carrying Barry’s water all weekend long but, it won’t be enough.....not this time....not this Tuesday....not for this President! This time, we win!!
So, stay calm, prod your friends to vote, and get ready to for a wonderful victory this Tuesday. Statistics, history, and intensity are at our backs. We will not be denied.
It will be a Romney landslide. Period.
National popular vote include huge Obama margins from CA, NY and MA.
I’ve said it before, and I still believe it.
Revolt ends in nothing but eradication. If we have paid any attention at all to Iraq and Afghanistan, we know what awaits that move.
Pure suicide and little else...
I tend to agree, but this is so important and the propaganda is at record levels.
Yes, Zogby has Zero leading among this group by 8 points, Gallup had Romney up by 7. Don't know about Pew.
Zogby used to be a good pollster though his brother was a dyed-in-the-wool 'Rat. Now he's no better than the MSM sponsored pollsters and just as partisan. Surprising that the "conservative" Washington Times employs him.