Skip to comments.Rasmussen: Wisconsin tied, Romney up 1 in Iowa
Posted on 11/01/2012 1:42:50 PM PDT by SeekAndFind
Rasmussen released two big swing-state polls today, both containing mixed news for Mitt Romney. Their surveys in Wisconsin and Iowa both show virtual or solid dead heats with just days left to go before the election. We'll start with the actual dead heat in Wisconsin, where Obama gets better news on early voting, and in the internals:
The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Likely Wisconsin Voters finds President Obama and Mitt Romney each earning 49% support. Two percent (2%) remain undecided. …
Twenty-five percent (25%) of likely Wisconsin voters have already voted, and the president leads 56% to 41% among these voters.
Voters in the state trust Romney more than the president by just two points --- 50% to 48% --- when it comes to handling the economy. Obama has a three-point edge in voter trust --- 50% to 47% --- in the area of energy policy and leads by one --- 49% to 48% --- when it comes to national security. Among voters nationwide, Romney leads by seven on the economy, and the two are nearly tied in the other areas.
Let's take a look at a couple of keys. First, the D/R/I split is R+2, 39/37/24; in 2008, exit polls showed a D/R/I 39/33/29, in 2010 it was 37/36/28, and in Junes recall election, it was 34/35/31. The ratio between Democrats and Republicans might be accurate, but it does seem that independents get a little undercounted here. That might be the difference, too, because independents are breaking to Obama as they did in the NBC/WSJ poll, 51/43. That’s still a smaller advantage than Obama got in 2008, when he won independents by 19 on his way to a 14-point win. The gender gap has been completely neutralized, too, with Obama leading women 56/42 and Romney leading men by the exact same number. Still, Obama’s job approval rating is 52/48 in Wisconsin, which gives him an edge — and it’s 55/44 among indies.
How about Iowa? Romney has a one-point edge over Obama, but again Obama has a solid lead among early voters:
The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Likely Iowa Voters finds the Republican challenger with 49% support, while President Obama earns 48% of the vote. Two percent (2%) like someone else in the race, and one percent (1%) is undecided. …
A week ago, the candidates were tied at 48% apiece. The president led by two earlier in the month, while Romney posted a three-point lead in September. Prior to the latest findings, Romneys support in Iowa has fallen in the narrow range of 46% to 48% in surveys since June, while Obamas support has ranged from 44% to 49%.
Forty-two percent (42%) of likely Iowa voters have already voted. The president leads 56% to 39% among these voters.
The internals here don’t look too great for Romney or Obama. Romney’s losing independents here too, by twelve at 52/40, but he beats Obama on the economy by seven overall, 51/44, and by seven among independents, 49/42. By a huge margin, Iowa voters want a reduction in federal spending rather than an increase to boost the economy (74/14, 75/15 among indies). Once again, the gender gap is neutralized.
I’d consider both polls a mixed bag for both candidates. If the GOP has a firm grip on Scott Walker’s GOTV infrastructure from June and can push the economy message in Iowa, they have a chance for two big wins — but it won’t be easy in either state.
Very good news in contrast to the Marquette poll yesterday that showed Obama ahead (with a crazy D+5). I think Romney takes Wisconsin.
D/R/I split in WI is R+2? Is that realistic this year?
Good question. He may be basing this on the recent recall election. Not sure what the partisan turnout was then, but it would not be unheard of, but no way a D+5. People are jacked to vote on our side.
Sorry, but if this is very good news to you then you didn’t read it. Romney trails among independents in states with a built in advantage of Democrats. This seems to be a case of Rasmussen fudging the numbers a bit. This combined with other polls leaves Obama poised to take WI and IA a toss up at best.
I think he mistyped - the Wisconsin poll was D+2.
How does Romney go from a huge advantage among independents to losing independents? It just doesn’t make sense.
Not sure the reason but his daily tracking poll shows Romney’s support among independents down as well. Sandy? Not sure but double digit advantage has been his trump card and without it... game over.
We know, you’re “concerned”.
“How does Romney go from a huge advantage among independents to losing independents? It just doesnt make sense.”
I’m suspicious of any swing state poll that has Obama winning independents. Not just because I want Romney to win. It’s just that it doesn’t make a lot of sense in this political climate.
being behind 13-15% on those who have already voted makes me put on my ‘concern troll’ hat. But Dems are notorious for the early vote, that makes me feel a little better. I always enjoy your posts SAF, keep up the good work.
The only silver lining to Obama winning is going to telling all you busy bodies to F off.
Especially Wisconsin, where I think Thompson is going to win vs. Baldwin for Senate. I can’t see anyone voting for Thompson and then voting for Obama.
Romney is going to wipe the floor with The Disaster in Wisconsin.
Who in their right mind believes the people who kept Walker are going to just forget all the RAT crap and vote to retain The Disaster?
It ain’t gonna happen.
If these numbers are accurate, I don’t just don’t see Romney winning WI.
So how is it the same people who elected Kasich turned around and voted down collective bargaining reforms a year later? There’s no correlation.
WI just kicked the unions in the ASS
I can’t see them going for Obama AT ALL
no matter what the polls say
Here’s to hoping that the Dem’s early push is their only push.
Not sure about that but Ohio did not see a frivolous campaign to remove a duly elected governor which cost the taxpayers millions. Wisconsin did.
Nor did the subsequent election occur during a presidential election so people will not be asleep again.
One doesn’t have do to with the other. The people of WI were standing up for their vote when they rejected the recall. They knew what Walker was about and elected him and so they stood up to a bunch of powerful whiners.
Of course, the crazy liberal Yahoo.com is running a story that Obama has a “strong lead” in Iowa.
They’re desperate now and simply making things up, trying to drag him across the finish line.
To back to the DUmp!
Not sure then what to make of the Democratic mayor of Denver saying two days ago while campaigning in Wisconsin that Obama was behind in the early vote.
Could be just a risky motivational tool at best and a bad error at worst.
If picking Ryan does not help deliver Wisconsin what does that say....?
I don’t know, but consider that Al Gore didn’t win Tennessee and Romney for damn sure isn’t going to win Massachusetts.
how is it so impossible for these pissants to not see what the voters are saying and what has happened in wisconsin the last few election cycles ?
REPUB ron johnson whipped a long-time incumbent RAT senator (feingold), wisky elected REPUB gov. scott walker and upheld him by higher numbers in a BS recall attempt. etc etc etc.
romney cant win wisconsin after we plainly see how this state has been trending ?
please wake up you goobers. dang.
This would explain the last minute planned visits to Dubuque Iowa on Saturday for BOTH candidates.
Romney will speak at the airport around noon. Bambi will speak at a park at 3:00 PM.
RE: Romney will speak at the airport around noon. Bambi will speak at a park at 3:00 PM.
I’m not getting the rationale for Romney’s venue. Who goes to an airport to listen to a politician speak (with planes flying around)? A Park makes more sense to me.
Most polls show Romney winning independents.
If he wins the poll but loses indies, that is a flip from the other polls that showed him losing polls but winning indies. Maybe its how they screen for Dem/GOP vs indep. It could be one couunts Dem-leaners are indeps and the other keeps them as Dems.
Either way, this is good news for Romney. Even the ‘obama leads’ polls have Obama under 50% with over-samples of Democrats - he doesnt win that way. IA and WI are tossups, and If Romney wins that he wins the race. But he can win the election even if he falls short in these states.
Some of the polls are a concern. But none of the polls have actually debunked the real ‘Romney will win by 5’ thesis that I think reflects what is really going on.
Early voting and indie numbers are, well, awful. Ohio looms large if Rasmussen is accurate here. BTW, I still think ROmney will win but it’s not gonna be a walkover. America is very close to the tipping point and even if Romney wins it just delays the tip. The momentum is all on the side of big government and it will never change until America hits rock bottom. Sorry for the depressing thoughts but I call’um as I see’um.
One positive side of the venue is more people may be able to attend.
Dubuque’s airport is a small regional one. The air traffic probably won’t be a major concern.
Early voting in Ohio was down overall for Democrats. As of Tuesday, 530,813 Ohio Democrats had voted early or had requested or cast an absentee ballot, he wrote.
That’s down 181,275 from four years ago. But 448,357 Ohio Republicans had voted early or had requested or cast an absentee ballot, up 75,858 from the last presidential election.
That 257,133-vote swing almost wipes out Mr. Obama’s 2008 Ohio victory margin of 262,224. Since most observers expect Republicans to win Election Day turnout, these early vote numbers point toward a Romney victory in Ohio.
McCain lost the early voting in Ohio in 2008 but won the late voting by 3 points. I can’t see how Romney will do worse or even be the same as McCain’s on November 6 given the GOP voter enthusiasm now compared to 2008.
Also, Romney has consistently led among independents in most October surveys ( that includes Ohio ).
When a sitting President cannot reach 50%, his re-election chances are greatly diminished.
Not good news for Dems either.
Easily explained by Ohio UNIONS. My dad (old steel worker union thug) lives in Ohio and always votes R (due to gun rights), but also always votes for anything pro-union. Our biggest fights (since I grew up) have been about unions. I say one bad thing about unions around him, and he gets really angry - face red, vein-popping-out-of-his-forehead mad. You can actually see the old thug coming out of him as he looks for the nearest 2x4 with which to smash in my skull. I went to visit him when that vote that you mentioned was being discussed, and I tried to explain to him that it was for PUBLIC EMPLOYEES, but he got all vein-poppy, and said "shut your f-ing mouth!". Such language coming from a 76 year-old uber born again Christian was a bit disconcerting.
I agree Ohio looks good. Iowa and Wisconsin not so much based on indies and early voting. And yet Michigan and Minnesota are within 3. The whole picture is out of focus. The numbers don’t track from state to state. The nationalnumbers don’t track with the state numbers and no poll tracks with another poll.Both Pew and Gallup do have ROmney with a 6 to 7 point lead among the 20% who voted though.
I think Romney will win Ohio because McCain got 47% there and the entusiasm for Romney/Ryan is infinitely higher but the polls are a mishmash even accounting for dem turnout bias.
It makes perfect sense. Saving the candidates the 1hr of extra travel to/from a venue means he can fly to the next event fast. He will probably be in 3-4 states each day now to election day - PA, OH, MI WI, IA, CO, NV and maybe VA and FL (although both look good for ROmney).
These are not international airports. These are good enough for some events and to get into the local media/news cycles.