Skip to comments.Hurricane SANDY Public Advisory
Posted on 10/28/2012 3:07:37 PM PDT by SubMareener
...SANDY EXPECTED TO BRING LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE FLOODING TO THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST...INCLUDING LONG ISLAND SOUND AND NEW YORK HARBOR... ...WILL BRING COASTAL HURRICANE WINDS AND HEAVY APPALACHIAN SNOWS...
(Excerpt) Read more at nhc.noaa.gov ...
I think all my friends that live on Long Island have evacuated. At least I hope they have.
I’m just a few miles away from Coney Island, and they’ve been evacuated.
Snows... good grief. I’m camped here in northwest Maryland, never thought I’d see that.
We have Winter Storm Warnings flashinng across the TV screen here in East Tennessee. Expecting significant wet snowfall. Went out and blew the heavy leaf covering off my driveway yesterday evening, to make it possible to get traction through the wet snow if need be. High winds are also predicted, so snow will probably be ‘sticking’ to even the stop signs.
Have a daughter in Hoboken ...just scared to death for her. She’s oblivious to the danger, of course ...think her work, however, is going to get her out of there tonight, hopefully to a hotel somewhere north.
What is it with young people? They just NEVER think a single bad thing is ever going to happen to them! Drives me nuts with my kids!
>>What is it with young people? They just NEVER think a single bad thing is ever going to happen to them! Drives me nuts with my kids!<<
As you did with your parents.
Am under a mandatory evacuation from Flood Zone A in downtown Manhattan. We left last night and are comfortably in our BOL.
Okay, I’ll admit, I haven’t been following this storm, but just checked over at one of the weather sites. I expected it to be a Cat 5 the way it’s being talked about. But it’s a Cat 1 with rain expected in the 8 inches range. Last TS we had, we were up near 17 inches of rain.
I’m in Florida and a Cat 1 is usually a minor inconvenience, break out the generator because you’ll probably lose power, but destruction from a Cat 1 isn’t too much of a concern.
So somebody enlighten me...why is this storm different as I guess it is since there’s so much hype surrounding it.
(and why do people think it’ll affect voting, we’re not voting till a week after this storm hits.)
I’m not trying to be snarky, just don’t get it.
Nobody except the worry warts get this. Get a Rain Barrel.
Go get your milk and bread, Gas up your car, Buy an umbrella.
Everything is hyped to the max these days.
My favorite is watching some hyperventilating idiot on the PMSNBC Weather Channel wearing mega-storm gear doing a live report and a family dressed in shorts and t-shirts casually saunters by in the background.
All this hype, hype, hype. Why it was one year ago tomorrow that I got half a foot of slush in my yard and lost power for a week because every other tree in the whole damn state came down. Yet there were no headlines about the apocalypse back then.
I'm thinking the Obama-controlled media want to take the Benghazi thing off the front page and maybe create an opening for some election mischief that would benefit Obama.
I haven’t seen the latest from Nags Head but I’m sure they are there. OMG it’s gonna rain then snow, it must be global warming!
Haven’t you been reading/watching the news? LOL! Here’s one story:
Take your tropical storm...drop the pressure into the upper 940 MB (by landfall)...your avg TS is about 990-1005...make it about 10X larger in size wind wise...add 12' storm surges...as compared to your 2-4' in a tropical storm....and make the area impacted by damaging surge 20X larger...and now put yourself in sustained tropical storm winds for over 24 hours.
Now knock out the power.
Irene, much poo-pooed here by ignorant Freepers...caused $15 BILLION in damage. This will cover a MUCH larger area and be much more destructive with the surge. I expect damages to top $20 Billion. Did your tropical storm do that?
Get it now?
Can you answer my question or not?
It’s pretty rough on Hatteras Island to the south of Nags Head. They’ll get their share I’m sure. But, water temps begin to drop pretty quickly past Hatteras. Storms usually lose steam over cold water.
I haven’t been there for some time but those folks didn’t go anywhere. If NY wants to shut down for rain they have truly created a populace dependent on everything GOVERNMENT!
But the National Hurricane Center steadfastly refuses to issue Hurricane Watches or Warnings for Delmarva and New Jersey:
(from the 5:00 PM “discussion”)
AS NOTED IN PREVIOUS ADVISORIES...TO AVOID A HIGHLY DISRUPTIVE CHANGE FROM TROPICAL TO NON-TROPICAL WARNINGS WHEN SANDY BECOMES
POST-TROPICAL...THE WIND HAZARD NORTH OF THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING
AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE CONVEYED THROUGH HIGH WIND WATCHES AND
WARNINGS ISSUED BY LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICES.
Bottom line: People aren’t going to take a “high wind warning” nearly as seriously as a watch or warning with the H-word.
One wonders what federal assistance is automatically triggered by use of the word “hurricane”?
Could this be a way to punish Chris Christie?
Sandy is all the fault of the Weather Channel for posting a video insulting to low pressure systems.
Maria Molina is a nice distraction.
I simply can’t understand why the NHC seems so eager to wash its hands of hurricanes headed for the I-95 corridor.
A couple of years ago after they had similarly stopped issuing products about a downgraded storm which nevertheless caused a lot of wind damage and minor flooding in southeast PA I wrote my congresscritter...got a personal response from him but it looks like the only “change” has been for the worst.
Don't worry. Hillary will ensure they are prosecuted to the fullest extent of the law. Those responsible will be punished by forcing them to ride out this storm on beach chairs out on the Atlantic City sidewalk. Umbrella drinks not included.
Agreed. I thought this storm was going to be pushed out into the Atlantic by the cold front coming from the west, but everybody else said it was going to hit the Mid-Atlantic seaboard. I’m always ready, but now I’m starting to worry a little because of those that aren’t. I don’t think we’ll lose power her in No. VA, but DC could be hit bad if rain saturates the ground and we get sustained wind of 35-45+ m/h. All the trees that didn’t fall down this summer from the derecho will fall this time. Add flooding to that, and you get Katrina, but with whinier people, closer to the government.
Many of the oldtime residents there descend from people washed ashore in shipwrecks. They’re a tough lot. Summer OBX population might be six figures but it’s a quarter of that by now, just full time residents. Normal weather is a little on the wild side, that’s what makes it such a fun and beautiful place to visit, forces of nature are very evident, always. Roaring surf, pretty strong winds are normal, drifting sand. I love it. Hope there’s not too much damage.
Heavily populated areas losing public utilities as well as mobility for a period of even days could be a disaster. But, I look at the hardiness of New Yorkers in the immediate wake of 9/11 and think they’ll make out just fine. However, you now have the squealling, self-absorbed media hype, mandatory evacuations and a whiff of panic in the air, over what you and I know to be a moderate blow at best.
It’s hard not to snark at least a little, isn’t it? Maybe I finally understand what makes Californians giggle at easterners freaking out over a 5.0 tremor, or northerners giggling over southern cities shutting down over snow in the forecast, lol.
Because the NHC thinks times like this are times to teach class....instead of thinking of the population. They don’t think it will technically be tropical any more...so they dodge some responsibility...but many mets think its negligence.
I jumped into that water in 1975. It beat me and my brother to a pulp. We were used to the soft waves of PCB. That was some of the most exiting coast I had ever seen.
Its worked out for her so far.
The same way that New Englanders would skoff at the reaction of Floridians getting six inches of snow.
If you can point me to a “QUESTION?”....perhaps I can answer it. I see you’ve made a couple of observations and cutsie comments...but I did not see a question among them. Did I miss a sentence with a ?mark in it?
Perhaps you should try it for the FIRST time...you never asked a question. Go back and look at the thread. Perhaps you posted a question on ANOTHER thread regarding this...but not this one.
But...to answer your question...you have to be wary of looking at these model plots...especially if you don't know what you are looking at.
XTRP is simple extrapolated movement. In other words...it will ALWAYS be a straight line.
CLP5 is the climo model. It looks at what storms have done in the past at that location and movement. Not useful at all for a changing situation...and really only used for comparison...not forecasting.
The green tracks are the BAM models. Very primitive and not useful outside the tropics. Ignore them.
That leaves you with every other model or value...and they point to the same area. The TVCN is a consensus model. It is like a Choir harmonizing the individual members.
NHC taking care of us stateside like the DOD took care of citizens in Benghazi, IMHO.
I might not have the degree but I’ve been a Skywarn spotter for over a decade...count me in on those calling “dereliction of duty.”
Because the usual storm that hits florida is not anywhere near as big as this storm. This storm has hurricane force winds 175 miles out and tropical force winds 520 miles out. Unheard of I think.
Then in Irene last year Virginia had almost 2 million people without power. Add to possible Virginia, NY, NJ ect and you could see possible how many millions without power.
Plus flooding because of the way it is approaching.
It should not be a big loss of life but the power is the big problem and people need to have the right supplies because some could be 3 weeks without power. Maybe more
Is it overhyped ? possible,Still the size of this storm is really large. Im hoping the oaks outside my window are left standing if this part of Virginia gets it. Last year several neighbors with trees on houses and one missed mine by 3 or 4 feet. Big trees, It’s no fun.
If the storm were closer to the coast right now places in NC and Virginia would probably have seen 20 or so inches of rain. Irene produced that I think. Also this storm is moving pretty slow and being so big that places are going to experience tropical force winds longer than the typical hurricane. 24, 48 hours of continuous wind.
Plus some places may recieve up to 50 inches of snow in the mountains. Pretty unusual and big storm.
This storm is also supposed to produce 25 foot waves in lake Michigan. We can only wait and see.
My favorite quote on the Sandy coverage today - a weatherman pointing at a map of Staten Island, and saying, “Staten Island is virtually surrounded by water...”
They say it’s going to run into a cold front and then that’s when it’s going to get really nasty. I always thought cold fronts push the hurricane back out to sea, but I don’t know why this is not the case here. It sounds like this is going to be another Nor ‘Easter. Not unheard of. We had a few of these back in the 90s.
My daughter is up in New York. Her husband is deployed, and she is 5 months pregnant. I am so worried about her. Im so grateful that we have friends up there we were stationed with before. They’ve promised to look after her. But I hate the idea of her being that far away from us during this.
If you look at the forecast discussion you’ll see that they are measuring less than hurricane force winds, yet they are still calling it a hurricane.
But...here is the real test...this will do MUCH more $ damage than most nor-easters if not all of them. So...pretty much unheard of. Never seen a setup like this...with a blocking hi to the NE driving the storm west. Also not seen a storm in the Atlantic with a wind field this large.
I'm referring to the MSM who will exaggerate Sandy for as long as possible in order to keep Benghazi OUT of the NEWS.
Thank you to our ALWAYS reliable MSM. BASTARDS!!! /sarc
Nope didn’t have 12’ storm surge, that’d be ugly. We’re at about 12 feet above sea level and are 2 miles from the Gulf and 2 miles from the Bay (usually have more problems with surge in the Bay than surge from the Gulf.) But that’s the explanation I was looking for...I couldn’t figure out why Cat 1 was posing such danger.
Plus we live on a peninsula on a peninsula (Tampa Bay) and when water invades our peninsula and floods, it quickly drains off. That won’t be happening in that area.
One of these days, once of these October storms are gonna come out of the Caribbean and hit there.
You guys are VERY susceptible to surge.
Fox News is doing them both.
I always wanted to live on Nantucket. I guess they’re in for a wild ride. :(
Hurrican Ike hit Louisville with NO RAIN.. just several hours of 50-75 mph winds, and knocked out power to nearly 70% of the city. Power was out for MANY people for almost a week.
We call it, the ‘rainless hurricane’.
Even if she *is* 4’11”.
Alleged reporters Drama Queens.
The classic was coverage of flooding years ago when the female reporting was spouting off live while in a row boat. Right at the end of her spiel, two walked by in boots. LMAO!
I always wanted to live on Nantucket. I guess they’re in for a wild ride. :(
I always wanted to live on Nantucket because they have all the best limericks.