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I try to look at the PVI for each state which is a pretty good approximator, rather than focusing on the individual state polls....Ohio has a PVI of +1, so in effect, whatever Romney’s national vote total is, add 1 and that is what his total in Ohio should be...so taking the Ras poll today of 50-46, we are looking at 51-46 Romney in Ohio...Now, there are some variables here such as the unprecedented focus being placed on Ohio by Zero, however, the final national vote is fairly predictive of the Ohio vote...