Skip to comments.Gallup: R-51/O-45
Posted on 10/20/2012 10:08:03 AM PDT by tatown
(Excerpt) Read more at gallup.com ...
We had better closely monitor Zero and Mooch’s departure to ensure that they don’t loot the White House of its furniture, china and silverware!
No, there is nothing Obama can do to get reelected.
A vote for the Libertarian candidate is a vote for Obama, which is a vote for Leftist totalitarianism.
I am less concerned about the silverware than with secretive executive orders, pardons, etc.
With a 6pt lead in the popular vote, Romney will win Ohio.
I understand your fear, but that makes no logical sense in the era of early voting. Colorado gives a good example - perhaps 75% of the votes there will be cast by mail before Election Day. Why would the powers that be show Romney with a substantial lead when those voters are casting their ballots?
There is no doubt the early polling was influenced by the media narrative, but now pollsters (like Gallup and Rasmussen, especially) need to think ahead to getting work during the next election, and so they start to report more reliabile results.
I would note, though, that I still expect the Gallup numbers to narrow a bit, probably on Monday or Tuesday. If Romney is still above 50% by Wednesday, I think everything breaks his way, and he's the next President.
But Obama won the second debate, so they told us...
Has Obama ever reached 50% in any respectable poll for 2012?
Nothing like calling Romney useless while shamelessly admitting that you are.
If Gallup is accurate this race really might be over
The coup de grâce (deathblow or death shot administered to end the suffering of one mortally wounded) will be Monday night...
Gallup is irrelevant.
You guys need to trust Nate Silvers numbers. Hes yet to be wrong.
LOL, He only called the 2008 election. Wow, that one was a real hard call. The fact that you would even quote Nate Silver tells you are on the wrong forum.
A good “Romney” day may have rolled off but if so, then a good “Romney” day rolled in. Good sign.
Plus, word is that Nate Silver was getting inside polling info from the Obama operation. Most anyone can appear smart with access to that data. And then in 2010, with no more inside info, Silver’s predictive ability was squat.
I don’t know what to make of Gallup’s poll numbers BUT I think Gallup is striking back at Obumbler’s team for crippling his creditably. He probably feels he was targeted unfairly by Obozo’s cronies... VENGEANCE IS MINE says Gallup! I guess Gallup is laughing all the way to the polls.. LOL!
Just what I thought this morning. Romney would be absolutely right and Obama would be headed out the door. Of course, it would be better if Obama ended up at 39 or 40. I say let’s bury him.
What is Gary Johnson? I mean, what is he other than someone to waste a vote on (unless you live in a state that isn’t close)?
He supports amnesty for illegal aliens, and hold the typical, insane libertarian position in support of unlimited immigration.
He has said that Sup Court justices should judge by the original intent of the framers/authors. But how would he reconcile that with his support for gay marriage and abortion? There is no way from an Originalist point of view to say the Constitution demands gay marriage or abortion rights, so would he stick by his guns and nominate someone who he knows would not impose his preferred social views? I doubt it.
But it doesn’t matter anyway as he has no chance. In a swing state, a vote for Johnson is a vote for Obama.
“How do you know Gallup is using a “current heavy weighting of Republicans?”
I don’t know. It is just a guess based on (1) the fact that Gallup is alone in seeing such strong support for Romney, (2) we know from news stories that Gallup has being doing some late-cycle tweaking of its methodology (although admittedly those stories focused on the likelihood that the changes favored Obama), and (3) we know that the Obama folks have put tremendous pressure on Gallup, including the Justice Department’s filing of a lawsuit against Gallup.
You lost all credibility when you directed people to Shill Silver. The man is a hack.
Major win in the first debate, has got all kinds of fund-raising $ rolling in, carpet blasting great ads in battlegrounds, outpolling Obama steadily nationally in the last weeks, picked a conservative star for VP, served as GOP Gov in an 86% Dem state, survived a brutal primarily, earned $250,000,000 as a successful businessman, raised 5 sons.
This describes a useless idiot? Really??
LoL. OButt is going down.
Thanks for the disclaimer with that last sentence. Obama thanks you for your support.
The 47% NUMBER isn’t wrong.
What’s wrong is the part of Romney’s remark that identifies WHO makes up that number that he says will vote for Obama no matter what.
He said, 47% don’t pay federal income tax.
Goes on to conflate ALL who don’t pay federal income tax to be ALWAYS Obama voters.
Many ivy league academic libs, public school teachers, well paid unionists who still have jobs, sports and showbiz and media types, government workers of all types at all levels, DO make high incomes and DO pay federal taxes BUT they also vote Obama and fall into the 47% if that’s Obama’s vote.
And quite a few of the working poor and the lower middle class don’t make enough to owe federal income taxes but will vote Romney - some of them are the “bitter clingers” to guns and religion, some of them are unemployed but blame Obama for it, etc.
And some of the minorities are mad at Obama because of gay marriage, gays in the military etc and have decided to sit home, so even if they don’t pay taxes they will not be among the Obama vote this time.
For all these reasons and more, both Romney and Ryan distanced themselves from the quote.
And Gary Johnson is...???
Yeah, it’ll be in-your-face pardons such as OJ, Rezko, Blago, etc.
[ In a swing state, a vote for Johnson is a vote for Obama. ]
I have no doubt catsup’s vote is going directly to Obama.
The epitome of a drive-by poster!
And yes, 0h0m0 will lose in a MUDslide once the “ignored” NJ and PA continue creeping a little closer toward us next week.
Looks like a dead-cat bounce for the Lizard King.
Or Minnesota,Minnesota, Minnesota or Pennsylvania,Pennsylvania
Amen to that!
Cat’s up to no good. 0b0z0’s last battlers trying to stem the tide.
This tide ain’t used for laundry; it’s used to wash the BathHouse from the residing filth.
You gotta play like you are down to your last strike!
NO Chicken Counting!
The ONLY poll that matters: 11-6-12...VOTE!!!
The final two weeks of an election is when reputations in the polling place are made. Reputable pollsters, no matter their political inclinations, are just not going to be ruining their reputations to prop up a losing candidate in the final days.
Obama could blow Romney off the stage Monday night (another highly unlikely occurrence) and it won't really have any material impact on how people are going to vote. Minds have been pretty much made up and as others have pointed out, millions of Americans have already cast their vote in early voting - a pet peeve of mine but I'll save that rant for another thread.
If Obama was several points ahead, I'd be worried but would not be despondent. The challenger usually has a surge in the final few days of the campaign and even if Romney was behind 4-5 points on the Friday before election day, he would have a decent chance of still pulling it out.
But for an incumbent to be dead even or down several points (6 in Gallup!) with just a little over two weeks left and never once at 50% in any reliable poll - well you can just about stick a fork in him. Chances are we are looking at a 54-46 Romney victory or better and that margin will produce a solid electoral victory - perhaps even an electoral landslide. But Obama will likely have California and most of the Northeast so I think you can take comparisons of 1972 or 1980 off the table for now. But I'll take it - I just want Obama to pack his bags and get the hell out of our White House.
There is the outlier possibility that in the final days leading up to the election, Obama might launch a military strike in the Middle East - either to avenge the Libya killings or maybe even team up with Israel to take out Iran's nuclear capability (I'm hoping that Netanyahu will not be a party to this) and that could produce a nice little surge for Obama as some Americans are too dopey to see through it and will think "rallying around the flag" is the thing to do. But aside from something like that, this race is no longer Obama's to win - it's Romney's to lose.
I predicted (wrongly so far) that Gallup would have started circling the wagons by now by tanking for Obama with rest of MSM, but so far and very happily I might add, I am wrong. SO FAR!
I still will be AMAZED if they do not soon tank for Obama. Here`s hoping I am wrong on all counts!!!!
And yes, 0h0m0 will lose in a MUDslide once the ignored NJ and PA continue creeping a little closer toward us next week.
Something about these house cats!
“Then again, Im voting for Gary Johnson”
I suppose you are a “true conservative with principals”: almost exactly same thing as a Progressive/Liberal/Democrat/Socialist/Marxist when it comes to helping make sure Obama wins four more years!
When was the last time a Presidential candidate received at least 50% in a Gallup poll at this point in the campaign and lost?
They say Jimmy Carter burst into tears when he was told that Reagan won.
I would love to see them leave the Washington. What a treat that would be.
I’d be more intrigued to see Michelle Obama’s reaction to the loss..I can imagine it would be the same pity face she had when Obama lost the 1st debate..it was PRICELESS..then she would go on her rant about how she isn’t proud to be an American anymore
IBD/TIpp tracking is showing a 2 point Obama lead, larger than yesterday, but I believe that is jut Dems coming home.
The poll has 7 percent more Dems than GOP.
That is not realistic. Even it shows a lot of Dems not voting O.
Not likely. The Disaster has had it. The Bubble popped two weeks ago.
Nobody is relaxing. The reality is, however, that in 2010, lots of people on the left were cheered by early voting since it showed the GOP turnout wasn’t big.
Well, that turned out to be completely wrong. Dems early vote, while the GOP don’t typically, though the campaign is trying to push for more this year so it can better target election day voters later.
Here in West Texas, there are ALMOST NO election signs out. But, the news said last night they are having record numbers of early ballot/mail ballot requests. I can guarantee they are not voting for Obama.
Funny you should mention "useless idiots."
That's what I call 3rd party voters.
I don’t think polls should be breaking news.
Gallup is using the turnout model they expect to be reality on Nov 6 and using that model Romney is walking away with this thing.
That is exactly what he is doing. He is factoring in the GOP enthusiasm advantage. And Raz is just doing it the old fashioned way, using historical figures and doing some averaging. Good luck with that. I think Gallup is on to something.
I’m betting it’s Gallup at R+2 to Rasmussen’s D+3.
They come closer to being Breaking News than some of the trash that lingers in that sidebar for day and days at times.