Posted on 09/29/2012 3:55:15 PM PDT by RobinMasters
One of my regulars, the accounting-minded poll watcher nicknamed “Number-Cruncher” writes in, describing what he thinks honest pollsters should be saying right now:
“For the past two election cycles the partisan divide in this country has been volatile. In 2008, we could have modeled the turnout in race similar to 2004 and Obama still would have beaten McCain by 1 or 2 points. We knew that there was no way the divide was going to end up even, so even moving to a 1996 model of +3 Democrat advantage would give Obama a 4 point win. Democrats ended up with a +7 partisan ID advantage, given an almost perfect storm for the Democrats.
The 2008 cycle was an interesting race for pollsters, in that while the partisan divide clearly favored the Democrats, we didn’t have to worry too much about overestimating or underestimating too much because we knew the main result: an Obama win.”
Looking back through recent presidential cycles, we see Republicans over-performing their standing in the final polls – sometimes by a little, sometimes by a lot.
In 1992, Gallup’s final poll had Clinton winning by 12 percentage points, he won by 5.6 percentage points. In late October 1992, Pew had Clinton up 10.
(Excerpt) Read more at nationalreview.com ...
“Given the intensity of the Tea Party, it would not be all that surprising if the Tea Party/GOP combination out polls Democrats by a margin greater than 2004, which would turn every pollster except Rasmussen upside down, with Rasmussen being turned on his side.. Simply put, we just do not know.”
I’m leaning this way. The turnout may not be 2010-like but closer to 2004 IMHO. I don’t see any evidence of a D+7 or higher turnout. On the contrary, I’m seeing trends implying democrats unenthusiastic and republicans enthusiastic about voting. Today’s USA Today/Gallup poll gave it as 48% democrat enthusiasm to 64% republican enthusiasm. In past elections, the party who turned out enthusiastically for voting, won the big prizes.
Pew is pulling the same outlier—make that “outliar”— baloney this year, too. Pew stinks. Romney has a good shot to win. The Kenyan has peaked too early.
Right now, I am guessing turnout will be RAT +3. If so, then I see Obama winning the popular vote by about +2.
That gap is not insurmountable. An inspired Romney in the debates and on the campaign stump would help a lot. Just solidifying the base would erase most of that lead.
We don’t need to win back the entire country, just take the weakest 2% of Obama voters and swing them to our side, and that should be enough.
If there’s an enthusiasm gap of 14% for Republicans, and this holds, can it be a D+3 turnout, considering it’s about 50-50 D/R split in the country? Also considering the middle class is breaking towards Romney by double digits, and that he’s winning the older voters, and catholics?
The voters under 30 are Obama voters and they are notoriously unreliable to the polls. He’s bleeding support in hispanic males, devout Christians and Jews, the middle class and the seniors. Kind of strange the polls have him ahead, isn’t it?
Based on what ??
I see no sign of a + 2 dem ?
Ras changed to that after Axelrod and Nate Silver mocked and hammered him non stop .
Ras had no basis to use it strictly
Harrasment by the left
Considering all the GOP controlled states like Fl clean up the voter rolls .
I think it’s a big unknown .
My take is while voters have made it clear they are ready to get rid of Obama, they have made it even more clear they just don’t like Romney.
Mitt has just over a month to win over the 2 or 3% of the voters he is going to need to pull this off.
Won’t be easy with the MSM lying about him constantly, and already declaring Obama the winner of the debates and the election, but it CAN be done.
Question: Is the “D+2” skewed by big blue states????
Axelrod has threatened and badgered these pollsters along with
Vile former Daily Koz pollster Nate Silver .
Sliver trashes anyone who does not follow his left wing agenda.
He trashed Ras non stop in 2010 even though
Silver was way off as usual .
The Scott recall Silver was calling up
All the Media and pollsters saying it was going to be too close to call and people actual changed their models and the story line .
It was all a lie by Silver but did anymore trash him.
No !
No, not underestimating. Just lying about them before every election.
I heard he secretly collaborated with the Obama campaign in the weeks before the 2004 election. They shared their internal numbers with him, he published them as his own, and then he looked good (as a first-time pollster nailing the numbers). I have zero trust in Nate Silver.
I mean the 2008 election, of course.
Poll Ping.
2008 was a perfect storm for the RATs, but 2012 was close to that for us as well.
A lot of the RAT voters stayed at home. No way that many of them stay home this time.
Plus, as you even see on this very site, Romney still has not completely secured his base. Add it all together, and I see a RAT advantage in turnout on election day, albeit it a relatively slight one.
If Mitt can hammer down the GOP voters and win back some of the wavering Indies, it won’t matter, but right now I do think he is indeed behind.
So far no evidence whatsoever of a +3 D advantage in OH’s absentee #s. In fact, probably the opposite.
They may not particularly "like" Romney...but Obama scares the bejeebers out of them.
Meaning they'll vote for Romney, even if they don't "like" him.
And since when did "likability" gain such great sway in American political discourse. I always thought "character" was a greater attribute.
There's a big difference in what people say is important, and what is ACTUALLY important, to voters.
The media in close conjunction with the Obama campaign have literally eviscerated Romney.
They have invented gaffes that don’t exist, painted him as an out of touch elitist, and as a mean spirited business exec. It has taken a toll, and has pushed the worst President in the history of our country into a lead.
If people actually watch the debate, they will see that Romney is nothing like the caricature the media has created, but will they watch? And if they do, will they resist the inevitable MSM spin that Romney just didn’t look Presidential and that Obama destroyed him in the debate?
The answers to those questions probably determine who wins in November.
Our 16% edge in enthusiasm plus Catholic vote and Obama’s done for.
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