-——Much of the early action is in Cuyahoga (Cleveland) and Hamilton (Cincinnati) counties.-——
The action in Cuyahoga County is not good. It suggests that the Obama campaign is working with pro-Obama voters to get them to vote early and ensure that they get a high turnout. And this all flies under the radar while letting Obama make up for the lack of enthusiasm on his side.
Maybe you can drag a bunch of unenthusiastic voters to vote for you if you have a whole month to do so.
76000 dems requested ballots in Cuyahoga. 34000 repubs requested ballots in Cuyahoga. Difference is 42000 and Obama beat McCain by 458,000 to 200,000 in 2008. So a 258000 difference has shrunk to 42000. This is not enough for Obama. These voters are the hardcore voters also. Some time to make up the difference until November 6th but I doubt he’ll reach his Cuyahoga margin from 2008 of 258,000. If I had to guess his margin will be around 100,000 in Cuyahoga but we’ll see. Another wrinkle is how all these unaffiliated voters are casting their ballots - that I really want to know.
And also remember everyone got mailed an application to request an absentee ballot in Ohio - this is different from 2008. So those who are interested are sending in their requests and reflects voter intensity.
And yet Obama is still trailing, percentage-wise, compared to 2008 absentee ballot requests. From LS: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AvEOdIaw0fPNdHVOZnFENDdDYVFTRi1UMlgxQ0F4OVE#gid=0