76000 dems requested ballots in Cuyahoga. 34000 repubs requested ballots in Cuyahoga. Difference is 42000 and Obama beat McCain by 458,000 to 200,000 in 2008. So a 258000 difference has shrunk to 42000. This is not enough for Obama. These voters are the hardcore voters also. Some time to make up the difference until November 6th but I doubt he’ll reach his Cuyahoga margin from 2008 of 258,000. If I had to guess his margin will be around 100,000 in Cuyahoga but we’ll see. Another wrinkle is how all these unaffiliated voters are casting their ballots - that I really want to know.
And also remember everyone got mailed an application to request an absentee ballot in Ohio - this is different from 2008. So those who are interested are sending in their requests and reflects voter intensity.
107,887 Total Absentee Ballots requested...
GOP - 23,694
Dem - 17,966
GOP advantage is now 5728
76000 dems requested ballots in Cuyahoga. 34000 repubs requested ballots in Cuyahoga. Difference is 42000 and Obama beat McCain by 458,000 to 200,000 in 2008. So a 258000 difference has shrunk to 42000. This is not enough for Obama. These voters are the hardcore voters also. Some time to make up the difference until November 6th but I doubt he’ll reach his Cuyahoga margin from 2008 of 258,000. If I had to guess his margin will be around 100,000 in Cuyahoga but we’ll see. Another wrinkle is how all these unaffiliated voters are casting their ballots - that I really want to know.
The (D) 458k to (R) 200k in 2008 was absentee ballots or actual votes (or both)?
However, take that % and multiply times your margins in Cayahoga and you can get a pretty good idea where we are. You CANNOT say "the difference of 258,000 shrank to 42,000 because the Cuyahoga #s represent ALL votes, not just early votes.
That said, I think Cuyahoga's D/R ratio is three to one, and at this pace, they will come in well under 2008.
Subtract 14% of 458,000 (64,000) from 458,000 and you get 394,000. Then subtract 6% from the 2008 R number of 200,000 (12,000) and you get 188,000, or a margin in Cayahoga of 206,000. Don't know how you get 100,000.
Is 206,000 out of Cuyahoga enough for Zero to win OH? Cause he won't many other counties except for the NE cluster.
Then you have to factor in the fact that we've seen GOP absolute advantages (so far) of 5700 in Franklin (way higher, as McCain lost this county by 21%), of 7000 in Warren (to be expected), and when you look at ALL the counties McCain won in OH in 2008 (hard to imagine) Clermont, Green, and Clark alone would offset the upper NE counties. The killer was that Hamilton went for Obama by 6%---but now Rs are leading absolutely. That's a big swing.