Posted on 09/08/2012 1:03:40 PM PDT by nhwingut
For a long time I have been predicting that Mitt Romney would get the Republican nomination, and that he would then win the general election. I have said that the election will be reasonably close–demographic realities dictate that all national elections will be reasonably close, for the foreseeable future–but not a squeaker; more like 2004 than 2000. Given President Obama’s dismal record, that seemed like a safe prediction.
But it now appears that the election will be very close after all, and that Obama might even win it. It will require a few more days to assess the effects (if any) of the parties’ two conventions, but for now it looks as though the Democrats emerged with at least a draw, despite a convention that was in some ways a fiasco. In today’s Rasmussen survey, Obama has regained a two point lead over Romney, 46%-44%. Scott Rasmussen writes:
The president is enjoying a convention bounce that has been evident in the last two nights of tracking data. He led by two just before the Republican convention, so he has already erased the modest bounce Romney received from his party’s celebration in Tampa. Perhaps more significantly, Democratic interest in the campaign has soared. For the first time, those in the president’s party are following the campaign as closely as GOP voters.
So the Democrats’ red meat, over-the-top attacks on Republicans apparently worked at least as well as the Republicans’ more positive, low-key approach.
On paper, given Obama’s record, this election should be a cakewalk for the Republicans. Why isn’t it? I am afraid the answer may be that the country is closer to the point of no return than most of us believed.
(Excerpt) Read more at powerlineblog.com ...
"The danger to America is not Barack Obama but a citizenry capable of entrusting a man like him with the presidency. It will be easier to limit and undo the follies of an Obama presidency than to restore the necessary common sense and good judgment to an electorate willing to have such a man for their president. The problem is much deeper and far more serious than Mr. Obama, who is a mere symptom of what ails us. Blaming the prince of the fools should not blind anyone to the vast confederacy of fools that made him their prince. The Republic can survive a Barack Obama. It is less likely to survive a multitude of fools such as those who made him their president."
Translated into English from an article appearing in the Czech Republic as published in the Prager Zeitung of 28 April 2010.
Cash. Our government has an army of bureaucrats deciding how much HUD and food stamps, HUD rent voucher amount and stuff each ZIP CODE in America should get. CUT the bureaucracy by 80%.
If they waste their dole then they have nothing to complain about and maybe they will learn a lesson.
“Bandwagon” effect: a well documented form of groupthink in behavioral science. Conduct or beliefs spread among people, like fads and trends, with the probability of any individual adopting it increasing with the proportion who have already done so. As more people come to believe in something, others also “hop on the bandwagon” regardless of the underlying evidence.
MSN even had the unmitigated temerity to compare Obama to Romney as “not that much different”. http://www.realclearpolitics.com/video/2012/01/30/george_soros_not_much_difference_between_romney_and_obama.html
(All objections by those who don’t care if Zero has a second term or not as if stated.)
The MSM and Obama’s people are manipulating polls to try to make the public believe it’s close, or that the candidates aren’t that much different, then (now) that Obama is leading.
They underestimate the American people. (All objections by those who say, ‘Didn’t they elect him in 2008?’ as if stated, in that the public did not know him in 2008; as Clint Eastwood put it, he’s a fraud.) The real poll is in 58 days. Then the MSM and Democrat Pauline Kaels will emerge, shell-shocked, and ask, “How can this be? Everyone I know voted for Obama!”
Btw, it’s going to be a Romney-Ryan rout.
i remember I was a laundry mat with sister one before the election in 1988 and peter jennings came on with a news break that Bush was up 54-43 over Dukakis. When I cheered my sister told me to be quiet
I think Obama starts at least 45%, what with African Americans (Obama = us), government employees, single women and welfare-receiving poor (Obama = daddy), middle-class gays, atheists, libertines, Latinos, Asians and Jews (Republicans = not us).
The battle comes down to how well Romney sells himself to the private-sector white working and middle class, many of whom gave Obama a shot in 2008, and how much enthusiasm Obama can rekindle among the low-propensity voters in the ghetto and barrio.
I think 2012 could be the last election in which Republicans have any< chance unless they come up with some message that resonates with middle class Latinos and Asians and start to cut down on the expansion of government dependency — with a smaller government workforce and welfare roll, you have more people who value a low-tax, low-regulating policy.
[ Why Is This Election Close? ]
Because the republicans are almost as leftist as democrats..
Not quite but almost..
Proof; The republicans rejected literally ALL conservative candidates..
And selected the inventor of Romney-care to go against the inventor of Obama-care..
America has been pretty much brain washed by the Colleges..
And republicans have done nothing about it.. Nothing..
And they still do not care.. American Colleges are espionage centers..
HYPERBOLE?... Nope.. I wish it was..
We lost the Cold War, Russia and China WON ideologically..
“With most of the electoral votes tied up in states like NY, MA, IL, CA, WA, OR...essentially anyone who runs as Democrat wins those states/electoral votes. A Democratic candidate starts out with about 230 electors in his column at nomination.”
So many refuse to see this.
And once Texas “tips”, it’s all over...
RomneyCare is already in full effect. I know it is only a State program but Romney was only a Gov. Romney last week stated he was proud of it.
only a little better. I would hate to live on the difference.
If Obamanation is created if he wins I will move to any state that decides to secede.
“Curious, if people want their free stuff, would going very conservative even work?”
We’ll probably never get to find out this for sure. After the checks stop, it will be another story.
truedat.
See #130 & #133.
Thanks for the comeback.
“I get tired of conservatives like Hinderaker lumping SS recipients with entitlement recipients.”
Would you give up your social security for the good of the country?
“....at the very least i expect the agreement to be kept and I resent like hell for anyone to say I’m on the govt dole. “
I guess not.....but your reasoning is why you are lumped in with entitlement recipients, because SS is an entitlement program paid out of present receipts.
You’re lucky - you’re collecting on it, most folks not already collecting will not.
“The recipients would love the idea of getting it all in cash and not having to file forms for a dozen different programs. We could also merge the unemployment benefit into this and other things too.”
For a sizable portion of that population, if you were to “give them cash” on Monday — it would be gone by Friday...
I disagree.
The House of Representatives has clear authority under the Constitution to control appropriations. The conflict you refer is not about this authority. It is about the political threat and ultimatum of a government shutdown .
The link above makes a good case for having the spine to defund and let the chips fall where they may when Reid and Obama shut down the government and blame the House for it.
So it can be done. It is a question of will, not capability.
Personally I think the new Congress can and should IMMEDIATELY defund Obamacare after the election, an election I think sadly that Obama will win. He can threaten to shut down government if they do but with clever scripting the Republicans controlling both House and Senate can reassure the public that essential services will continue including Social Security payments. Medicare will be funded but Obama may play games with Medicare spending.
This is different than when Newt Gingrich backed down from Bill Clinton threatening to shut down government. This time there is a clear majority of the public that does not want Obamacare.
With a battle won to defund Obamacare, Congress would have license to cut other discretionary spending and begin the process of conditioning the public that government cuts are the new normal.
In any event, the Tea Party success in primaries can be a reminder to those that cower to liberal interests or moderate political positions that Obamacare will eventually be left inoperative.
What Bachmann is saying to Greta is that Obama/Reid must agree to defund because it is mandatory just like Social Security and Medicare. No, that is not true. The House can withhold funds from Obamacare. What Obama/Reid will do is to shutdown the government and blame it on Republicans in the House. So Bachmann is not talking straight. She is playing politics because she was in trouble with Boehner over the Hillary/Huma flap and her membership of the Intelligence Committee was in jeopardy. She was told a showdown with Obama over a shutdown was not going to happen. Boehner controls what comes to the floor. She could not say in the middle of this election that Boehner has no stones to bring the vote. So she did what so many weak pols in DC do, she invents a stupid “can’t be done” without cooperation from Obama/Reid. She tries to shift attention/blame to the democrats even though her party and their control in Congress have the power to get the job done.
Listen to Greta. Greta, a lawyer, knows the powers and authority of Congress as well as any expert. Greta says for Bachmann to go ahead and bring up the vote, but that’s Boehner’s call. The real issue here is Boehner’s political calculus which many including myself think sucks.
Understand the politics here, Bachmann’s lame explanation was that it would be up to Obama/Reid, not Boehner. She endorsed Romney. She is carrying water now for the GOPe. She is in danger of losing her committee memberships and national RNC funding for her reelection. She is walking a fine line.
I don’t think its close at all, nobody wants riots because the Messiah is failing, they will feed a bunch of malarkey that its a dead heat before anything else.
Frankly I don’t believe in ANY poll.
C-SPAN just replayed a program with Dinesh D'Souza in Lansing, Michigan, on August 18, talking about his latest book (and making plenty of references to the movie 2016). Pretty much making the same points he made in the movie but a lot of it was Q&A so it was interesting to hear him respond to questions.
As D'Souza said, Obama doesn't care about the poor because he is only interested in bringing down the rich. Traditional Democrats think of themselves as caring about the poor (usually in the form of government handouts rather than personal charity) and they assume Obama shares their views. "Useful idiots," I think the phrase is.
3 weeks of hunger pains would be a good lesson
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