Skip to comments.Does the pick of Paul Ryan for VP mean the Romney camp feels good about Florida? (Vanity)
Posted on 08/12/2012 9:51:46 PM PDT by GR_Jr.
I've been thinking the Romney's campaign staff must feel good about Florida. I would think if they had even the slightest doubt they would win Florida, they would have gone with Marco Rubio as VP instead of Paul Ryan.
Wisconsin would be a great pick up, but they don't necessarily have to win it to win the election. They do, however, have to win Florida, so they must feel real good about Florida to go with Ryan over Rubio. What do you all think? Any Florida Freepers that can fill us in on the mood down there toward 0bama?
South Florida is as blue as ever, but I have only seen a handful of Obama/Biden 2012 bumper stickers and no yard signs.
That is REALLY surprising for Fort Lauderdale/Miami.
They should because all indicators are that Obama is going to have a really tough time in FL. Its been trending further red since 2008. Nelson even looks like he’s in his fight for his life. Gov Rick Scott’s reforms are starting to have the desired effect and his numbers have improved markedly. I’m not worried about Florida. The state I’m most worried about is Ohio. Not so much worried about VA this year. The Obama troops seem to be having trouble getting volunteers. :-)
I heard a couple of scandals (one of them not directly tied to him but too close for comfort) to do with Rubio regarding Congressional or House credit cards may have been why Rubio didn’t get picked.
Rubio is also not eligible and he talks too much. Besides, he’s Cuban and don’t most Cubans already vote Republican?
The Tea Party is strong in FL and not likely going to go Obummer.
Pray for America
I think that Romney is demonstrating a genuine executive approach. And by that I mean, he is doing things that have a prolonged, persistent effect. Contrast that to the 0bama/Axelrod “nyah-nyah” type of playground name-calling idiocy that seems like it has this big denting effect when it is sounded, but mere days later, has turned into a nothingburger and indeed, now seems to prove disingenuousness and a ready willingness to mislead on their part. And what’s nice is that the media and blogosphere appear to be able to dismantle these oblique connections in record time. Witness what happened with the “Romney killed the steelworker’s wife with cancer” deal. And I also contrast Romney’s approach with the “Julia” website that went up, clearly without what I call adult supervision within the 0bama camp. This is what they do not have. They have buzz, they have impulse, but once any given item extends past their attention span, they’re onto something else to destroy or otherwise muck around with.
So, my point is, 0bama is hit and run, throw anything up on the wall and see if (or hope) it sticks. Romney is deliberate, strategic. I believe as a good businessman, he will insist his efforts be *cumulative*: His story on Wednesday should not belie his story from Monday. Yeah, yeah, flip flops.
Romney is taking his time. He exudes confidence. I believe Ryan will be a highly approved pick, at first blush, and a month and 2 months from now. I believe Romney thinks he can convince and educate voters. Lest you think I am using the words “I believe” and “Romney” too many times in the same post, I’m in no way a Romney zealot. I don’t have the slightest doubt whom I’ll vote for, though. I think the confidence he is putting on will work, will manifest itself. Ryan is a powerful communicator for the direct purpose of defusing the “granny over the cliff” chant, as well. Romney knows, there is a 20% chance 0bama will completely destroy himself with this flailing. He also knows that if he cannot get through to Jews in Florida, he’s toast anyway there. I think he is taking intensely well-considered moves....some of which may be perceived as gambles, but I think he’s weighed and measured his chances with a good deal of savvy.
I started disliking Rubio more and more lately with his speeches on “Immigration Reform” and how the Republican Party needed to “do more for the Latinos”.
He just paid it back.
This is chump change. :)
Any politician with a long career is going to have something like that or worse.
He is Cuban-American,Floridian, and Hispanic.
And only older Cuban-Americans consistently vote Republican in large percentages. The ones that have no real memory of Fidelista Communism are little more wishy washy.
There was a fear that the dems would have made a big stink out of it demanding that he list each item and make it public.
Think about it. Would we really want to go there?
I understand what you mean, and yes, it’s unfair but these people made ads about Romney killing a guy’s wife and we know what that was all about.
Thank you for asking this question because I’ve been wondering the same thing. I’m thinking “yes”; they feel pretty comfortable about taking FL.
The problem the democrats have is that they aren’t able to grow their base. They have a block vote of liberal seniors who always vote and always have time to organize behind liberal causes. This block vote often creates friction by electing detestable leftists like Debbie Wasserman Schultz and formerly Robert Wexler.
The Left’s radicalism is what wakes the rest of us up and allows solid conservatives like Rubio and my congressman Allen West to come into the belly of the political beast and win when we need them most. There is a very formidable and growing conservative base statewide that is generally able to override the static liberal senior vote when things are critical. This is most definitely one of those times.
Another problem is that a lot of Jewish seniors don’t like Obama. The vast majority will still vote Democrat out of habit, but if there is even a small erosion of their vote, Obama will lose. The internals in this state, I guarantee are leaning decisively to Romney.
Remarkably astute analysis!
I’ll add one thing to your analysis and that’s IF Obama has any actual campaign strategy, it’s to increase the intensity of his smears about every two weeks, as that’s how long it takes the reverberations from the previous lies to die down.
Smearing is the ONLY possible tactic the Obammunists have, so they’ll double-down every two weeks or so. However, it’s very possible the smears will become so nasty and so obvious that there’s a significant risk of a backlash.
Already it’s not possible for them to attract a single vote based on idealism, which was a significant factor 4 years ago. Additionally, their lying may become so blatant that even a portion of the press will be unable to sit silent, since after all, such complacency will destroy any last shreds of any remaining credibility and perhaps thoughts of self-preservation in the face of not-to-distant bankruptcy might have a bit of an impact.
And there’s still a sizable portion of the American population that would come to realize just how odious the Obammunist tactics really are and be influenced to finally conclude that enough is enough.
However, the Obammunists certainly must know all of this, which means they must know that what they are doing is a huge gamble. Which also means that they must know their doom rests solely on the roll of the dice they’re throwing.
Excellent analysis. I have been telling people that Romney would not take a “political” approach to picking a VP (i.e., who would help win this or that state), but would make a “business decision” and pick someone to be VP like he’d pick a VP as CEO. I think he’s done exactly that. I wasn’t really honed in on Ryan before the pick, but I know see it as a brilliant choice. I’m no Romneybot, either.
I think it meant Romney decided not to pander to Floridians or Hispanics. Win or lose, fair and square.
I was glad to hear Monica Crowley say on her radio show this weekend what I’ve been saying all year, that picking Marco Rubio in an effort to “appeal to Hispanic voters” would have been playing to the same identity politics that the Democrats do and that we supposedly stand against. If we’re not color blind in who we promote within the party, then we’re engaging in the same affirmative action/soft racism that the Democrats do. The question to ask has to be that if Rubio was white, would he still qualify for the job? My opinion has always been that there’s far too much “compassionate conservatism” as well as convenient corporatism coming from him to be a standard-bearer for the party.
Agree 100% with EVERYTHING you said.
He was sounding way too much like Jeb Bush the last few months. But the last few months was when I started paying attention to the man.
Paul Ryan was someone I wished had jump in and run for President. Others told me he had no experience and I also realized how much we need him in the House so I gave up on that dream.
Right now I can say I am very happy with Paul Ryan.
Thanks! Yes, I think the Rubio pick would have been criticized as a ploy...not that any damn thing Romney might have done will not be criticized if not outright spat upon.
Ryan is a powerful pick, I don’t see any way he’s not. And this is with my explicit statement that his oh-so-highly touted budgets are complete nonsense: Because they rely upon attaining a rate of GDP growth that has never occurred; And those rates of growth have to occur for 20 straight years. Ain’t gonna happen.
We have a singular job. Defeat this wrecking ball of a president. Should we be able to do that, and I don’t consider that task any sort of slam-dunk, we will not be electing our ideal candidate. Too bad, so sad. We already know we cannot out insult them and we don’t like to fight that way in the first place. I agree. This is a businesslike decision, made for good reason, carefully weighed. This is one reason I am not quite so much on the rabid “Romney has to come out swinging” bandwagon. Because, IMO Romney has educating to do, and, he IS a tad unusual of a person, much cleaner than people are used to. I think he is slowly building his credibility and taking his time to warm up the crowd. He is smart. He knows he has to allow this to build. If Romney cannot educate people past their “I want mine” attitude, the whole fight is lost. So, I’m happy with what I see. I think he is a pretty smart guy, I KNOW Ryan is. And not smart like Ivy League smart, I mean really functionally smart. And when Ryan debates Biden, boy oh boy, that could produce a Rick Perry brainfart moment or two. And THAT has the potential to defuse the “no foreign policy experience” complaint against R&R. As if Biden has anything between his ears, but many think he does.
I am sure Romney people vetted all VP candidates
Rubio has way too many issues....but the main thing is that Rubio will not bring in Puerto Rican or Mexican-Amer voters. Romney cannot run a Cuban and expect to sway Mex-Amer voters in the West (some Obama-won states are in play)
This “myth of the Hispanic voter” is really “we want Illegal Alien Amnesty”. Any GOPer mentioning Hispanic Vote really means they want Illegals amnesty
Here’s the thing, most hispanics in this country are of Mexican birth/background. Rubio is Cuban and I think that would prevent him being seen as “one of us” by most Hispanics.
I live in Ohio and the unions are going to make it tough for R&R to carry this state. Our governor, Kasich, only won by 2% points in 2010. The left has bludgeoned him unmercifully since.
However, of note is that Paul Ryan attended college here in OH: (From Wikipedia)
Paul Davis Ryan (born January 29, 1970) is the U.S. Representative for Wisconsin’s 1st congressional district, serving since 1999. On August 11, 2012, Ryan was chosen by Mitt Romney to be his vice presidential running mate, becoming the presumptive nominee of the Republican Party for Vice President of the United States in the 2012 election. Born and raised in Janesville, Wisconsin, Ryan earned a B.A. degree from Miami University in Ohio. Following his studies, he worked as an aide to United States Senator Bob Kasten of Wisconsin, as legislative director for Senator Sam Brownback of Kansas, and as a speechwriter for former U.S. Representative and 1996 Republican vice presidential nominee Jack Kemp of New York. In 1998, Ryan won election to the United States House of Representatives, succeeding the two-term incumbent, fellow Republican Mark Neumann. He is now in his seventh term.
Agree with your statement.
But, as usual, the GOP's urge to pander is totally mistaken in this case.
Several polls of legal Hispanic voters have confirmed that the majority of this group does NOT favor amnesty -- by about a 60/40 margin.
These are people who have either been here for more than a generation or jumped thru all the hoops to become American citizens legally. They don't much like what was their birthright or what they worked for being given away to illegals.
If the GOP took a firm stance in favor of closing the borders and against amnesty and dilution of American citizenship, they'd probably win a lot more Hispanic votes than a Rubio would net.
On the other hand..
Seniors are a big part of the Florida vote; and, in general, Seniors hate Obamacare. The number one spokesman against Obamacare is...
And, Ryan has done extremely well with seniors in his past races.
And a recent Rasmussen poll identified Ryan's fav/unfav as 52/29 -- among seniors!
Ryan -- nor we -- have nothing to fear from the 'Rats' coming onslaught against him.
“I live in Ohio and the unions are going to make it tough for R&R to carry this state.”
I kind of have the feeling Ohio is lost and will easily go to 0bama bin Biden.......BUT!!!!! If R&R can carry WI and IA they can easily make up for OH.
You mean like the unions and Dems threw all their might at defeating Scott Walker in the Wisconsin recall election?
Another dimension to this train of thought is what is the implication for the senior vote? There are a lot of senior citizens in Florida, and you just KNOW the the democrats are going to try to hammer home the point that Ryan wants to gut medicare and turn old folks into dog food.
Well, it worked here in OH, unfortunately.
Rubio is also a Bush family puppet.
I’m thrilled Romney didn’t pick him.
I believed Rubio when he said he didn’t want the job. The credit card thing is chump change and disappeared immediately, before his election I believe.
Palpable distaste for bambi here in north Florida. Among blacks too.
Husband overheard conversation among black restaurant workers a couple of weeks ago in Atlanta, consensus was they wouldn’t vote for bambi for dogcatcher,if you weren’t gay,illegal or on welfare he doesn’t give a crap.
A liberal friend (Head Start teacher) from Pompano Beach tells me that she’s fed up with Zero (even she has started calling him that) and will vote GOP for the first time ever.
For her it’s the economy and wasting $5 trillion dollars along with the apologizing for America and the bowing and scraping before foreign potentates, she thinks he and the wife creature are ridiculous, anti-American, unqualified, affirmative action hires.
Not that she wouldn’t vote Hillary in a NY minute, lol.
Personally I’m glad Rubio didn’t get the nod, he seems to me to be a bit of an empty suit pretty-boy with ethics issues.
Waffling on illegals and using a party credit card for personal expenses doesn’t sit well with lots of people.
That’s like taking cash from the till and putting it back on Monday, so what if you meant well, it was “tainted money”, ie., taint yours!
Dems do stuff like that.
Besides, no way Cuban voters are going to vote for Zero either, chumming it up with Chavez doesn’t set well with them either, they remember Castro too well.
We lived in SoFlo for 20+ before moving to Arizona. It's been tough on business here the past 3 -4 years. Yet when my wife visited South Florida just last month, she said the area looked like it's taken a worse beating than AZ. Loads of places we used to go to are just gone and there are so many empty or near empty malls it was suprising for her.
Now that's a trademark of the obama regime, but she said it was especially telling for SoFlo. Sad to think, we love Florida and didn't like leaving. Yet it's been a very good move for our family.
I can only imagine that there's an overwhelming number of business owners who are praying for a business friendly administration to take power come next year. If they can last that long.
Rubio IS white; descendant of [white] Spaniards who merely stopped off in Cuba for a few generations.
I'm convinced that they lost a host of support when they went up against the TEA party, and the outrageous lies, smears, snarky “Teabagger” comments, etc, really had an impact on the media's lie that they are even-handed.
So by now either having to carry Obama’s water, or say nothing about his lies, tars them even further. Now, that's not to say the Journ-O-lists won't keep at it—many are ready to go over the cliff with Obama, but some will have to wise up or lose their jobs.
Somewhere, a publisher, senior editor, management of some kind is going to tell the Journ-O-lists that enough is enough, their screwing the bottom line.
In any case, I'll be happy to see that play out this year. I expect a lot of Jour-O-list captains to go down with their ships. Good riddance!
Ironically, I accepted the transfer to here because it was BOOMING compared to our area of central Georgia. It is definitely taking a hit, but at least there is a glimmer of hope of my teenagers getting at least ONE part time job to go on an application.
That’s something I have noticed since moving down here, there is very much an ethnic pride.
Same goes for the Haitian/Jamaican/Virgin Island folks. Do not mix them up. I have learned to detect the proper accent, although before that would just not say a word. Lived in downtown Atlanta long enough to know silence is golden when placed before assumption.
I spend my days interviewing these seniors and I cannot tell you how astute many are. I hear them saying they supported Obama in 2008, but will NOT now.
Remember guys, these people are on a FIXED INCOME. That means that while the gas has doubled, their income has not. While food prices have SOARED, their income has not. Winn Dixie BOGO free specials are the only thing that allows us to even consider meats some days. And I work full time! (albeit as a single mom right now)
Seniors are feeling the day to day effects of Obama more than a lot of people (excluding the unemployed, of course) and Obama urging them to go on food stamps to ‘help’ isn’t making them happy.