[StAnDeliver]

The Electoral Math of 2012 greatly favors the challenger...

2008 + IN, NC, FL, NV, VA, OH = 271EV

[StAnDeliver]

"And I will concede these hardcore Republican operatives and the consultants and so forth, I do think they're like everybody else in the Beltway: They live in a bubble, and they don't know what's going on outside the Beltway."

But it's possible to live in another bubble; as Rush himself said today, he lives in the second-richest zip code in the US.

"And I cited the 1980 campaign as an example."

That's also problematic, in that he seems to not realize that fully 1/3rd of today's electorate wasn't even born by then. Add in the under-18 1980 (waves hand) population and it's fully half of the electorate.

However, none of that changes 2008 + IN, NC, FL, NV, VA, OH = 271EV as the floor for Mittens, not the ceiling. History backs me up on this as modern-era 271's are rare -- namely, one: Bush v. Gore.

The excess depends on how many flips Mittens can get in the Rust Belt, and can he bring CO & NH back (doesn't need either to win). The latter seems likely.

[AuH2ORepublican]

“2008 + IN, NC, FL, NV, VA, OH = 271EV”

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You forgot that one EV from Nebraska that went to Obama (pertaining to the Omaha-based congressional district) will definitely go GOP this time, so it would equal 272 EVs.

And if Obama carries NV, Romney can still get to 270 by winning NH (where he’s favored to win).

Frankly, my biggest worry is OH, in addition to my general worry that Romney will underperform among Evangelical voters and blue-collar conservatives. I think that he shouldpick Senator Rob Portman, a social and economic conservative from OH who knows how to connect with blue-collar voters and happens to be a Methodist, as his runningmate. I think that Romney-Portman would be highly likely to get to 270, and could win in a landslide if the floor drops from under Obama.

[no dems]

The Electoral Math of 2012 greatly favors the challenger...
____________________________________________________________
Remember this: The EV count changed in 2010 with the Census. The Blue States lost 11 EVs and the Red States gained 11 EVs. So, subtract 11 EVs from Blue States and add 11 EVs to Red States, that’s a net gain of 22 Electoral Votes for the Red (GOP) States. Am I right or wrong?

[no dems]

The Electoral Math of 2012 greatly favors the challenger...
____________________________________________________________
Remember this: The EV count changed in 2010 with the Census. The Blue States lost 11 EVs and the Red States gained 11 EVs. So, subtract 11 EVs from Blue States and add 11 EVs to Red States, that’s a net gain of 22 Electoral Votes for the Red (GOP) States. Am I right or wrong?