[AuH2ORepublican]

“2008 + IN, NC, FL, NV, VA, OH = 271EV”

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You forgot that one EV from Nebraska that went to Obama (pertaining to the Omaha-based congressional district) will definitely go GOP this time, so it would equal 272 EVs.

And if Obama carries NV, Romney can still get to 270 by winning NH (where he’s favored to win).

Frankly, my biggest worry is OH, in addition to my general worry that Romney will underperform among Evangelical voters and blue-collar conservatives. I think that he shouldpick Senator Rob Portman, a social and economic conservative from OH who knows how to connect with blue-collar voters and happens to be a Methodist, as his runningmate. I think that Romney-Portman would be highly likely to get to 270, and could win in a landslide if the floor drops from under Obama.

[StAnDeliver]

"And if Obama carries NV, Romney can still get to 270 by winning NH (where he’s favored to win)."

That's a very good point, because despite the enhanced Mormon turnout, NV is the weakest link in my scenario.