Skip to comments.Romney up big in Illinois (PPP- Rom 45 San 30 NEWT 12)
Posted on 03/18/2012 10:14:19 PM PDT by VinL
Mitt Romney is headed for a blowout victory in Illinois on Tuesday. He leads with 45% to 30% for Rick Santorum, 12% for Newt Gingrich, and 10% for Ron Paul.
Romney's particularly strong among voters who live in suburban areas (50-29) and with those who live in urban areas (46-23). But he's even running slightly ahead of Santorum, 38-36, with folks who identify as living in rural parts and that strength with a group of voters he hasn't tended to do that well with is why he's looking at such a lopsided margin of victory.
Romney tends to win moderates in most states and Santorum usually win voters describing themselves as 'very conservative.' The swing group in the Republican electorate is those identifying as just 'somewhat conservative.' Romney is winning those folks by a whooping 60-20 margin in Illinois. Romney's also benefiting from a 52-28 advantage with seniors. We've tended to find Santorum a lot more popular with voters even in states that Romney has won over the last six weeks, but that's not the case in Illinois. Romney's favorability is 57/34, about par for the course of where we've found him this year. Santorum's at only 55/36, much worse numbers than we've seen for him most places in the last couple months, and suggesting that GOP voters are starting to sour on him a little bit.
Santorum's winning the group he tends to do well with- Tea Partiers, Evangelicals, and those describing themselves as 'very conservative.' But he's not winning them by the kinds of wide margins he would need to take an overall victory- he's up only 8 with Tea Party voters and 10 with Evangelicals, groups he needs to win by more like 25 points with to hope to win in a northern state. Santorum can't blame Gingrich for his troubles in Illinois either. If Newt was out Romney would still have an 11 point advantage on Santorum, 45-34.
What brilliant numbers you have devised! Sounds like IL will be one of Romney’s strongest states. Maybe there is Mormon tolerance there, considering what happened in 1846.
You're correct. People have this perception that Illinois is a conservative state. Illinois has a long history of picking RINO governors, senators and reps all under the guise of "getting along" with Chicago politics.
“Maybe hes the Romney spoiler after all.”
At this point, it’s still on the list of possibilities.
And a candidate can be a “spoiler” when they don’t realize it. They’re driven by an ego which can be manipulated by advice from key individuals at certain times.
Imagine you’re Santorum. Somewhere between the South Carolina and Florida primaries, you’re entertaining the idea of dropping out. Then you get a boost via carefully worded praise from a trusted advisor. Next, you hear how great you are when a top radio host sends accolades your way, which is then echoed by second-tier radio hosts. So you stay in, because you believe what these key individuals are saying about you.
Little do they know it, these advisors and pundits believe they themselves are clever by acting craftily behind the scenes, but in reality they’re being manipulated just as much as anyone else.
I hate to break it to everyone, but there was never any way Mitt wasn’t going to win IL. Just like in every election, the areas of IL with any sense at all will be negated by the liberal scuz in Chicago. No way a conservative like Newt or Rick could ever win here.
It’s not exactly a winning issue and plays right into the American Taliban lies.
Is it really over if he loses IL? Did he ever count on that?
If Romney can do well among this group, which tends to be middle to upper middle income, Illinois, Delaware, Michigan, and New Jersey, written off by the GOP in the last 20 years, would come into play. A drop in Democrat support in suburban Philadelphia and Cleveland would strengthen the Republican chances of carrying Pennsylvania and Ohio.
OTOH, Santorum has not proven his narrative, that he can carry the Reagan Democrats, usually Catholic and mainly blue collar, in the Rust Belt states. He lost both Michigan and Ohio, and appears to be losing Illinois. This devout Catholic from a Northern state plays well among evangelical Protestants in the South, but this is a constituency that is taken for granted as being Republican. This may be a foolish assumption, as a lack of Southern evangelical voter enthusiasm for McCain enabled Obama to win Virginia and North Carolina.
Sadly, we already know what the answer will be based on what has already been. The American people truly are like lemmings.
"American Taliban" - CINO talking points.
Newt’s final legacy may well be Romney’s nomination. Think of it as Dede Scozzafava writ large.
Santorum doesn’t even have a full slate of Delegates in Illinois, while I am under the impression that Newt does.
Illinois is a strange animal. Your vote for the nominee means NOTHING, it’s a beauty contest, while you vote directly for Candidates delegates separately.
It's hurt him in Illinois.\ After Purto Rico, Romnye has now won 20 contests, Rick 10 and Newt 2.
Seven of Romeny's wins were buy over 50%. 4 More were by over 45% where the combination of Rick and Newt would not have won. The vast majotiry of his delegates come from those 11 wins.
But in 9 race a combined conservative vote would have won, and that means together they would have 21 wins to Romney's nine and the delegate count would be alomst a dead heat.
It's not over yet...they can still block Romney...but they need to work together to do so, or they will end up giving it to Romney.
Damn. you’ve done a lot of research. If you could find just 93 Freepers, assign each a county, you could get that work done quick for probably every state in the union.
With no axe to grind, and an objective observer that has both sided with Santorum & Gingrich, Romney will handily take both Santorum and Gingrich to the cleaners tomorrow in the Illinois primary. Gingrich blew his chances long ago, and....Santorum stuck his foot in his mouth in Puerto Rico. You can’t win over folks by mocking their language and culture. Puerto Rico has been in the USA environment since 1898, and....thousands, upon thousands of Puerto Rican men & women have served loyally in the USA armed forces, some of them giving their lives and being wounded defending the USA flag and country. The same goes for legal Mexican-Americans who honor their language & culture, but give 100% loyalty to their country, the USA. Both Mexicans & Puerto Ricans have been an integral part of our nation for many, many years!!!
I am of Italian/German/Jewish background, and I would no more give up Pasta, Pizza, Italian food, German food or corned beef sandwiches & matso Ball soup, then Hispanics would give up their customs, food & language. I have spent much time in Puerto Rico...and I can assure you just about every Puerto Rican speaks near perfect English. And.......that goes ditto, for millions of legal Mexican American, and.....Cuba- American citizens!!! Hey, remember a fellow named Marco Rubio!!!
Gingrichbots & Santorumbots, you better wise up, we are going to need Hispanics big time, come November, just as we will need support from other minority groups. That vote massive vote for Romney in Puerto Rico speaks volumes how conservative minorities are essential to the success of conservative politics in the USA!!! Turning minorities off is just plain dumb politics, IMHO. Just take a gander at American Blacks, they have boxed themselves in with Obama, who could care less about them, other then getting their votes!!! When Obama loses in 2012, American Blacks will be lost at sea for a very long time to come. Not smart politics for the American Black minority. Playing the race card is dead in the water, no matter how many Democrats or racist Black folks play it.
Common sense and reality prevails. Well said. Newt has done enough damage as it is by staying in the race.
I had saved the robocalls from Mitt and Newt, but finally deleted them. I got one Santorum call, in contrast, and it was a live supporter.
“Cultural/moral wedge issues could arguably be our best shot at winning the presidency. With economic issues, youre also taking the risk that the economy is doing better or gas prices are lower by November, in which case Obama has all the credibility in the world to claim that his economic policies are the right ones. But whats morally right doesnt change.”
But what’s “morally right” has a wide variety of definitions by people of all political stripes. I think “wedge” issues could arguably be seen as costing Santorum as many or more votes than he gains...particularly by those who are bothered, rightly or wrongly, by the perception that he wants to legislate his particular definition of morality.
4 years ago I had no choice, all RINOs but Fred Thompson.
Duncan Hunter wasnt a RINO
far from it
FRed dropped out 2 days after Duncan did...
hence why I called them lies that he should be called such.