I don’t even see a path for Romney to winning a majority of delegates. Romney would have to win 100% of the delegates in all but one of the remaining 23 non-conservative states/territories to win a majority of delegates assuming he won 0% from the 21 conservative states. With all the proportional delegates it can never come out that way, but that’s as good a ballpark count as anything, and it doesn’t add up for Romney. With all 4 of these guys staying in the race, this is going to be decided at the convention. Just look at how few states so far Romney has won with over 50% of the vote...only Nevada with exactly 50%. There aren’t enough WTA states going his way to make up for that. No one has a path to winning this nomination outright, unless perhaps Newt or Rick drops out.
Romney’s path vs Newt isn’t that difficult.
VS NEWT:
ME + NH + VT + NY + NJ + MD + PA + OH + IN + VA + MA + CT + RI + MT + ID + WY + NV + AZ + NM + CA + WA + OR + HI + SD + ND + KA + NE + FL + AK
and a landslide nomination. He could even score KY + WV vs Newt for the blowout.
VS Santorum:
PA + OH + IN + WA + SD + ND + KA + MT + ID + NE + OR + AK all come off. That’s a 12 state swing. Not to mention the 3 states that Santorum already has.
Here’s Santorum’s path to the nomination:
MN + CO + IA + MO (already)
KY + WV + OH + PA + IN (he’s on the ballot now),
SD + ND + KA + MT + ID + NE + OR + AK + WA +
TX + TN + NC + OK + AR + LA. That’s enough.
That 15 state swing between Newt and Santorum is why Newt can’t win, but Santorum can.
Newt’s maximum that he’s looking at with Santorum at 4, is Newt 14 Santorum 4 Romney 32, and the nomination outright. That’s best case scenario. More likely he scores maybe 6 states at best:
GA, AL, MS for sure and maybe LA + AR. That brings newt up to 6.