Romney’s path vs Newt isn’t that difficult.
VS NEWT:
ME + NH + VT + NY + NJ + MD + PA + OH + IN + VA + MA + CT + RI + MT + ID + WY + NV + AZ + NM + CA + WA + OR + HI + SD + ND + KA + NE + FL + AK
and a landslide nomination. He could even score KY + WV vs Newt for the blowout.
VS Santorum:
PA + OH + IN + WA + SD + ND + KA + MT + ID + NE + OR + AK all come off. That’s a 12 state swing. Not to mention the 3 states that Santorum already has.
Here’s Santorum’s path to the nomination:
MN + CO + IA + MO (already)
KY + WV + OH + PA + IN (he’s on the ballot now),
SD + ND + KA + MT + ID + NE + OR + AK + WA +
TX + TN + NC + OK + AR + LA. That’s enough.
That 15 state swing between Newt and Santorum is why Newt can’t win, but Santorum can.
Newt’s maximum that he’s looking at with Santorum at 4, is Newt 14 Santorum 4 Romney 32, and the nomination outright. That’s best case scenario. More likely he scores maybe 6 states at best:
GA, AL, MS for sure and maybe LA + AR. That brings newt up to 6.
A brokered convention that benefits is unlikely because a Santorum strong enough to take states off Romney is strong enought to take even more off Newt.
You’d have to see something like this:
Santorum (18)
MN, IA, MO, CO
KY, IN, OH, PA
WA, ID, MT, ND
SD, KA, NE, OK
TX, WV
Newt (8)
GA, SC, AL, MS, LA, AR, TN, NC
Even here- Newt doesn’t have enough to swing the brokered convention in his favor vs Santorum. To do this, Newt would need to win states like TX + OK + WV + KY (bringing him up to 12), and Santorum down to 14.
If Santorum doesn’t do as well in the North, not only does Newt fail to force a brokered convention - Romney wins the nomination outright.