Iran: The Syrian Highway in the Fight Against Israel Is Still Open

The wave of protest in Syria has put to the test the strategic alliance between Iran (and Hizbullah) and Bashar Assad's regime. Syria is the main state component of the "resistance camp" and serves as a logistical hinterland for Hizbullah, Hamas, and Palestinian Islamic Jihad. Iran sees its unequivocal backing for Syria as a demonstration of its ability to stay loyal to its allies despite the regional turmoil. Iran believes that ultimately the "Islamic mantle" will supplant the region's pro-Western regimes as part of the Islamic awakening. This would offset the possible loss of Syria and reconsolidate the resistance camp on a broad basis of Islamic religion and ideological hatred of Israel and the United States. Ali Akbar Velayati, Iranian supreme leader Ali Khamenei's adviser for international affairs, speaks of the resistance camp as incorporating "the new Iraqi government." If Bashar falls, Iran will make sure its western border with Iraq is also an advantageous border with the Middle East, enabling it to exploit instability in Syria so as to keep operating within and from its territory. The fall of the Assad regime would affect Iran's ability to help Hizbullah in "real time" in the event of another round of hostilities with Israel, and the freedom of action of the Hamas headquarters in Damascus. Yet, at the same time, opportunities will open for Iran in view of the electoral victories of the Islamic forces in Egypt, Tunisia, and Morocco. For as long as it lasts, the crisis in Syria will manifest the inter-Arab fault line of Saudi Arabia and the other Gulf states vs. Syria, and deepen the Persian-Arab, Sunni-Shiite, and historical Persian-Turkish (Ottoman) fault lines.

Just the best analysis available anywhere, thank you!

I wonder if we aren't reading too much into the Iran Turkey dustup? Likewise, I think we are reading too little into communist hardliners like Assad Sr & Jr merely hanging on to power for power's sake regardless of the arab israeli conflict?

Remember, Assad Sr coined the statist 'Hama Rules' when he last put down the moslem brotherhood in the early 80's. Now, that was real industrial killing folks!

Of course back in those happy times, the US didn't get it's tail twisted in a knot over 70,000 dead Syrians.

Because, Americans used to understand that absolute dictators like Assad, Stalin, Mao, Hitler and company have never needed excuses for genocide; their victims were always their own people at least in the beginning.

Megalomaniac paranoid monsters first disarm and then murder their own people, most have no valid rationale. However, if we search deeper we can learn there's, either a plan to 'advance racial, tribal, or religious theories', or support some greater territorial claims of empire, or nation state. ( R. Khomani, the Iran/Iraq Wars ) In Assad's Sr.s case, just to keep his minority alwhite tribal group in control. ( Syria's Assad's )

It should be no sweat to the USA, unless we have a not so secret moslem President who's covertly/overtly fighting the ancient Sunni-Shia conflict by proxy by expending American toil, blood and treasure. I strongly suspect the later, BTW!

Israel's unfortunately, is a side issue for today. Especially to Assad, the West, the UN, the Arab League and the unfortunate Syrian people. They get to die before they find out the greater truth about the syrian conflict. Has it all been ginned up as part of a greater moslem Umma, or is it just another murderous dictatorship?

Unfortunately, if all this Bammi blather is just more Bammi bluster, he's just playing for time to help build Iran's nuclear arsenal. If Bammi's stalling for the Mullahs, he takes away any possibility that Israel's response remains a limited tactical non-nuclear event. Without a short, sharp and non-nuclear tactical victory over Iran, Jerusalem jumps back into the nuclear bullseye after the Syrian situations sorted out.

I have enormous respect for Israel, but if they're naive enough to listen to Imam Hussein Bammi for too long, the Iranian nuclear Jinn will literally be out of it's containment bottle. It will quickly embolden Iran to threaten, or throttle every nation that's unwilling to play Sharia Law games. I can't tell any government what to do, but in the case of my good friend's in Israel; smoke' em while you've still got them. Imam Hussein Bammi can't even level with his own citizens about his religion, or nationality. How can you trust a man who's employed lies and abuse of trust to get ahead all his adult life.

Thanks STD. You're right, the Turks went back in their box when the Russians rattled sabres and Zero said nothing much about the threat. The Turks were appalled that the mass murder carried out by the Assad dynasty was so widely covered in the media, because Turkey had already backed action in Libya, then decided it wouldn't, and said forget it about proposed intervention in Syria, and *then* started to support it and told Assad he had to go. Erdogan will be one of the big losers in this overthrow, even though Turkey hosts the Free Syrian Army, not least because he's made it policy to periodically invade Iraq, and has alienated the Iranian mullahcracy which is closely allied with Assad.

Israel: We will act to prevent Syria's chemical weapons from reaching Hezbollah

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