Subs, silos, UAVs: Rumors cloud Israel's Iran clout

Reuters ^ | Feb 5, 2012 | Dan Williams

[sukhoi-30mki]

Subs, silos, UAVs: Rumors cloud Israel's Iran clout

By Dan Williams

JERUSALEM (Reuters) - Asked about the profusion of foreign reports that their armed forces could soon attack Iran, Israeli officials tend to smile and shrug enigmatically, seemingly content to let such guesswork simmer.

The diplomatic dumbshow, which preserves military secrecy while keeping war-wary world powers negotiating for a halt to Tehran's nuclear programme, also conceals genuine bemusement in Israel at some of the assumptions abroad about its capabilities.

"This is speculation which is not entirely connected to reality," Vice Prime Minister Moshe Yaalon, a former top Israeli general, said on Sunday when grilled over predictions by U.S. media that Israel would assault its foe with drones, ballistic missiles, submarines and covert commandos, as well as warplanes.

"It's part of the problem, an attempt to turn the discussion into one of 'Iran versus Israel' instead of 'Iran versus the West, the United States, Europe' and so on," he told Army Radio.

Iran denies suspicions its nuclear energy programme aims to yield bombs but its record of hiding sensitive work from U.N. inspectors and refusal to negotiate have led to a stand-off with world powers and raised talk of last-ditch military action.

Israel, which sees Iran's nuclear drive as a mortal threat, sent F-16 jets to destroy Iraq's atomic reactor in 1981 and launched a similar sneak sortie against Syria in 2007.

But Iran, more distant and with its numerous, fortified facilities and vigilance for long-threatened raids, would pose a potentially insuperable challenge for an Israeli air force that lacks heavy bombers.

That has led some reports to assert that the Israelis have undisclosed capabilities that would close the tactical gap -- despite th

[Oldexpat]

Perhaps Israel plans to strike the regime itself along with infrastructure that supports the nuclear program. It is hard to build nuclear weapons with no power grid and they might well be able to decapitate the regime with good intelligence..which they seem to have.
Bunkers make good tombs.

[Walkingfeather]

If you think of the genius of the stuxnet and how brilliantly that was deployed I can only guess, Israel has prepared for this war for 30 years. When I see quotes from military experts that say, “impossible” and “pure fantasy” you can bet, they are probably probable or most likely true. Israel is not going to lose with Iran and knows that they may have to fight some other arab nation that wants to react as well... So my guess is that they will make it so fast and devastating that it will keep their arab neighbors in check for quite a while.

[SampleMan]

I’m worried about the Saudis double crossing them... Offer free passage and then hit them on the way home. Double win for the Saudis.

[Cheburashka]

I’m worried about the Saudis double crossing them... Offer free passage and then hit them on the way home. Double win for the Saudis.

---

Said win turns into loss an hour or two later after nukes are touched off in retaliation over Riyadh, Jeddah, Mecca, Medina, every major oil field in Saudi... I expect that promises made will be promises kept.

[Signalman]

That has led some reports to assert that the Israelis have undisclosed capabilities that would close the tactical gap

This would be my guess. They're not going to initiate this mission unless they're certain it will have the desired effect.

[SampleMan]

If they don’t use nukes on Iran, it hard to see them used against Saudis.

[SunkenCiv]

Thanks sukhoi-30mki.

...conceals genuine bemusement in Israel at some of the assumptions abroad about its capabilities.

Israel's capabilities include the total destruction of all its immediately surrounding enemies, as well as a significant chunk of the world's petroleum production. The Arab states can only get their armies to rush to the attack by telling them the enemy is in the opposite direction to actual, but they're not interested in their own annihilation, or in being replaced or dominated (not for the first time) by the power out of Persia.

[SunkenCiv]

/bingo

[Ancesthntr]

I agree that promises made will be kept, but I also agree that, “If they don?t use nukes on Iran, it hard to see them used against Saudis.”

If, however, the promises weren’t kept, the Saudis would have the loss of a good part of its air foce to look forward to, along with having to clean up a lot of (formerly) live pigs that would be end up being dropped on the big rock in Mecca in front of millions during the next pilgrammage

[Walkingfeather]

What did they use on that Syrian Plant a couple years ago..?