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What Mitt Romney's victories have in common: a low Republican turnout
The Telegraph UK ^ | 2/1/2012 | Mike Smithson

Posted on 02/01/2012 7:10:29 PM PST by GVnana

The Florida primary overnight has produced the thumping victory for Mitt Romney that the polls were predicting. But what might be worrying GOP strategists is that turnout was down sharply compared to four years ago. Florida will be one of the critical battlegrounds in November and the last thing the party wants is for Republican-inclined voters to be less enthusiastic.

The New York Times's election and polling analyst, Nate Silver, has done some number-crunching using the exit poll data from the four states that voted in January and finds that there is a pattern. In Iowa the number of self-identifying Republicans was down by 11%, in New Hampshire 15% the reduction was 15% while in Florida overnight it was 16%.

Romney, of course, won New Hampshire and Florida and came within 34 votes in Iowa.

The exception is South Carolina, which Newt Gingrich won a week and a half ago, where there was a 20% increase on four years ago in the number of Republicans voting.

(Excerpt) Read more at blogs.telegraph.co.uk ...


TOPICS: Extended News; News/Current Events; Politics/Elections; US: Colorado; US: Iowa; US: Nevada
KEYWORDS: disaster; mittromney; romney
I wonder whether we are seeing the impact of negative campaigning. A number of pundits are suggesting that this has been the most negative campaign ever with an estimated 92% of all the advertising in Florida being designed to undermine an opponent. It's estimated that the Romney campaign and its associated bodies spent $15.3m on on TV spots in Florida in the past month alone. To put that into context John McCain spent just $11 million on ads during his entire 2008 primary campaign.

There have been a number of academic studies that suggest that while negative campaigning can motivate the base of support it can also alienate other voters, thus reducing voter turnout.

1 posted on 02/01/2012 7:10:32 PM PST by GVnana
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To: GVnana

TELL EVERYONE YOU KNOW - THIS IS *NOT* THE YEAR TO SIT ON YOUR ASS!!!


2 posted on 02/01/2012 7:13:31 PM PST by Mr. K (Physically unable to profreed <--- oops, see?)
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To: GVnana

no we are seeing a lousy group of people running so noone wants to vote for em...i know you wanna see the romney boogy man and newt victim behind every tree but sometimes theres no there there


3 posted on 02/01/2012 7:16:22 PM PST by skaterboy (Hate=Love....Love=Hate)
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To: Mr. K

They’re right. Mitt’s FUD (Fear, Uncertainty, Doubt) scheme just turns off a lot of voters. Newt, whether or not he’d be an ideal president, is still light years from this. Newt needs to get into primary states early and make his case before the Romney romping begins. Rouse the rednecks (and I mean that with all patriotic pride — show that neck, whatever color the rest of you might be).


4 posted on 02/01/2012 7:18:10 PM PST by HiTech RedNeck (Sometimes progressives find their scripture in the penumbra of sacred bathroom stall writings (Tzar))
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To: GVnana

this is exactly why moderates always lose.

the press or whoever always assumes that the base will vote for the candidate regardless, and by putting forth a moderate you will get the base+the moderates.

When what actually happens is .. whatever moderates you pick up are far outweighed by the massive amount of your base that stayed home.

Which is why moderates nearly always lose.


5 posted on 02/01/2012 7:18:26 PM PST by TexasFreeper2009 (Go Newt!)
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To: skaterboy

Newt hardly advertised at all in Florida. He has a difficult sale to close, but I believe he can close it.

It has got to be a redneck revolution. South Carolina showed that. (Again, the hard workin’ redneck comes in all colors.)


6 posted on 02/01/2012 7:20:41 PM PST by HiTech RedNeck (Sometimes progressives find their scripture in the penumbra of sacred bathroom stall writings (Tzar))
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To: Mr. K

I am telling you right now that if Romney ends up being the nominee... Texas will be in play in the general.


7 posted on 02/01/2012 7:20:45 PM PST by TexasFreeper2009 (Go Newt!)
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To: GVnana

Low Republican turnout? If Mitt is the nominee, just wait until the general election, then you will see frighteningly low Republican turnout.

Mitt is not “hot sh*t on a gold platter,” but a cold turd on a paper plate. And conservatives know it. They want help from the GOP in turning Barry out of office, not hindrance.


8 posted on 02/01/2012 7:21:21 PM PST by Belteshazzar (We are not justified by our works but by faith - De Jacob et vita beata 2 +Ambrose of Milan)
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To: GVnana

The following is supposdly true re Romney - what ya think

This is not likely to make the news.....

Mitt Romney and his real character!!!

Sometimes, this facet of Romney’s personality isn’t so subtle. In July 1996, the 14-year-old daughter of Robert Gay, a partner at Bain Capital, had disappeared. She had attended a rave party in New York City and gotten high on ecstasy. Three days later, her distraught father had no idea where she was. Romney took immediate action. He closed down the entire firm and asked all 30 partners and employees to fly to New York to help find Gay’s daughter. Romney set up a command center at the LaGuardia Marriott and hired a private detective firm to assist with the search. He established a toll-free number for tips, coordinating the effort with the NYPD, and went through his Rolodex and called everyone Bain did business with in New York, and asked them to help find his friend’s missing daughter. Romney’s accountants at Price Waterhouse Cooper put up posters on street poles, while cashiers at a pharmacy owned by Bain put fliers in the bag of every shopper. Romney and the other Bain employees scoured every part of New York and talked with everyone they could – prostitutes, drug addicts – anyone.

That day, their hunt made the evening news, which featured photos of the girl and the Bain employees searching for her. As a result, a teenage boy phoned in, asked if there was a reward, and then hung up abruptly. The NYPD traced the call to a home in New Jersey, where they found the girl in the basement, shivering and experiencing withdrawal symptoms from a massive ecstasy dose. Doctors later said the girl might not have survived another day. Romney’s former partner credits Mitt Romney with saving his daughter’s life, saying, “It was the most amazing thing, and I’ll never forget this to the day I die.”

So, here’s my epiphany: Mitt Romney simply can’t help himself. He sees a problem, and his mind immediately sets to work solving it, sometimes consciously, and sometimes not-so-consciously. He doesn’t do it for self-aggrandizement, or for personal gain. He does it because that’s just how he’s wired.

Many people are unaware of the fact that when Romney was asked by his old employer, Bill Bain, to come back to Bain & Company as CEO to rescue the firm from bankruptcy, Romney left Bain Capital to work at Bain & Company for an annual salary of one dollar. When Romney went to the rescue of the 2002 Salt Lake Olympics, he accepted no salary for three years, and wouldn’t use an expense account. He also accepted no salary as Governor of Massachusetts.

Character counts!! (and yes...that’s worth reading again!)


9 posted on 02/01/2012 7:33:31 PM PST by stubernx98 (cranky, but reasonable)
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To: TexasFreeper2009
‘whatever moderates you pick up are far outweighed by the massive amount of your base that stayed home.’

Absolutely right!!
These are bad numbers for Republicans. And the drop was there even before the campaign got really ugly and personal.
If the Conservatives show up at the polls, the Republicans can win. That was what got the Reagan landslides.

Romney will drag the whole Republican ticket down with him.

TWB

10 posted on 02/01/2012 7:34:11 PM PST by TWhiteBear (Sarah Palin...The Flame of the North)
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To: GVnana

http://reason.com/blog/2012/01/09/percentage-of-independents-reaches-an-al

Independents outnumber Democrats who outnumber Republicans

Shakeup going on. Independents benefit in all time high


11 posted on 02/01/2012 7:44:49 PM PST by fight_truth_decay
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To: stubernx98

>Mitt Romney simply can’t help himself.

***

That’s bad.

Plus, he’s a Mormon.

You would do well to know what Romney actually subscribes to spiritually: http://www.waltermartin.com/cults.html


12 posted on 02/01/2012 7:52:04 PM PST by ROTB (Christian sin breeds enemies for the USA. If you're a Christian, stop sinning, and spread the Word..)
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To: GVnana

The problem is not low turn out. The problem is the people who DO turn out are sheeple idiots who vote the way the media tells them to vote.


13 posted on 02/01/2012 7:58:08 PM PST by Terry Mross (We need a second party!)
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To: TWhiteBear

Republicans did it to themselves
Stalled government blamed on both parties
Nothing getting done u can see low poll #s in approval ratings Congress
Voters are moving out of both parties to Independent.

However, if a candidate can’t stand the heat this early in the presidential race then time to get out of the fire. We hated it when Blame Bush was the easy excuse...Voters don’t like when a candidate whines
The issue is that they just can’t offer solutions to solve anything worth the voters attention. When they do voters will listen.
However the robo call in the news had voters outraged.
Most will just show up to vote for a Republican figurehead Or the Known=Obama.


14 posted on 02/01/2012 8:02:29 PM PST by fight_truth_decay
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To: skaterboy

The South Carolina 20% increase of Republicans voting for Newt Gingrich says YOU are the boogie man. ;)


15 posted on 02/01/2012 8:02:55 PM PST by ConfidentConservative (If my people shall humble themselves and pray,I will hear from Heaven and heal their land.)
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To: Mr. K

Protecting illegal aliens is a loser.


16 posted on 02/01/2012 8:02:55 PM PST by donna (I want to live in a Judeo/Christian country where we know that, before God, men & women are equal.)
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To: GVnana

Bret Baier just tweeted Trump may endorse Newt tomorrow at press conference The Donald scheduled earlier today alert to press midday


17 posted on 02/01/2012 8:13:55 PM PST by fight_truth_decay
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To: donna

Michelle Malkin pointed out Newt and Mitt are both the same on immigration not accomplishing much. Is one reason she went Santorum. Is big issue with Malkin


18 posted on 02/01/2012 8:17:25 PM PST by fight_truth_decay
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To: skaterboy

“no we are seeing a lousy group of people running so noone wants to vote for em..”

Not really. The candidates we have had this time around are far better than in 2008. Romney actually made the candidates we had in 2008 look conservative. I’d happily take Romney, Gingrich, or Santorum over McCain.

Of course, conservatives ran off Bachmann, who undeniably conserative.


19 posted on 02/01/2012 8:18:27 PM PST by CaspersGh0sts
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To: TWhiteBear

yep, I agree, not only would Romney lose but he would take the congress down with him too.


20 posted on 02/01/2012 8:28:48 PM PST by TexasFreeper2009 (Go Newt!)
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To: TexasFreeper2009

Excellent analysis, TF. Right on...


21 posted on 02/01/2012 8:35:02 PM PST by Mountain Mary (Awaken Oh America...)
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To: TexasFreeper2009

I am telling you right now that if Romney ends up being the nominee... Texas will be in play in the general.

I knew I loved your state, TF.


22 posted on 02/01/2012 8:36:20 PM PST by Mountain Mary (Awaken Oh America...)
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To: TexasFreeper2009

Do you see Dewhurst as unstoppable for the Senate? Maybe Dewhurst can carry Romney to victory in the fall.


23 posted on 02/01/2012 8:43:40 PM PST by Theodore R. (I'll still vote for Santorum in the unlikely event he is still on the April 3 ballot.)
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To: HiTech RedNeck

F*** Romney and all who vote for him,


24 posted on 02/01/2012 9:03:47 PM PST by factmart
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To: fight_truth_decay

Don’t I know it. Too much money to be made with slave wages - why else would smart men give away our citizenship for cheap.


25 posted on 02/01/2012 9:05:02 PM PST by donna (I want to live in a Judeo/Christian country where we know that, before God, men & women are equal.)
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To: stubernx98

Thanx for posting that story. I hadn’t heard about it before so I did a search and found it listed as true on snopes.


26 posted on 02/01/2012 9:53:57 PM PST by Once-Ler (ProLife ProGun ProGod ProSoldier ProBusiness Republican for Palin)
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To: CaspersGh0sts; skaterboy

Palin came out and said it was not Bachmann’s time yet.
Could not have made Bachmann’s too happy the opposite of an endorsement.

Romney in double digits means someone voted
Repubs are fewest in # now...
The rate it is going will no longer be a duopoly as voters sick of both parties. Independents tend to be more moderate

Voters are just sick of Washington...these candidates all qualified bear the brunt of it


27 posted on 02/01/2012 10:46:10 PM PST by fight_truth_decay
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To: TexasFreeper2009

They called a Romney Market today on business channels
Congress can’t go any lower lol


28 posted on 02/01/2012 10:48:02 PM PST by fight_truth_decay
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To: Mr. K

If Romney is the nominee, I will look at other candidates on the ballot to vote for or just wont vote for POTUS.


29 posted on 02/01/2012 11:25:50 PM PST by gunsequalfreedom (Conservative is not a label of convenience. It is a guide to your actions.)
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To: stubernx98

And we have just heard from a paid online poster from the Romney campaign.


30 posted on 02/01/2012 11:30:18 PM PST by gunsequalfreedom (Conservative is not a label of convenience. It is a guide to your actions.)
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To: stubernx98
I think it's very possible that Romney has good qualities. I seriously looked at him in the 2008 campaign.

But I'm not liking his ideas for government. His healthcare initiative for Massachusetts is not something I want to live with. I don't want my choices about my body made by the government. The whole idea is repulsive to me and contrary to every precept of personal freedom I have held dear through my life.

I dread the spectre of crony capitalism in government health care.

I'm in California, so I have not yet witnessed first hand Romney's campaign style. From what I have seen and heard, I am beginning to have a deep dislike of the man. Kinda reminds me of Richard Nixon. While Nixon too had a keen mind, on balance his legacy was not as beneficial to the republic as I would like.

That's part of the reason I support Gingrich. HE GETS IT. He's not just a "fixer" -- he gets the big picture AND the long view.

31 posted on 02/01/2012 11:51:48 PM PST by GVnana (Newt 2012 - He Speaks for Us)
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To: GVnana

Excellent article. It is interesting that this kind of insightful reporting often only seems to appear in the British press.


32 posted on 02/02/2012 3:17:48 AM PST by iowamark (The fault, dear Brutus, is not in our stars, But in ourselves)
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To: stubernx98; Jim Robinson

Pushing Pro-abortionist material here on FR are you?


33 posted on 02/02/2012 5:38:19 AM PST by Future Useless Eater (Chicago politics = corrupted capitalism = takeover by COMMUNity-ISM)
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To: Future Useless Eater
I was very anti Mitt, but after reading this piece he gained a few points. I have tested over a thousand people for their management style over the years(running co’s & consulting) Mitt falls into the “results Oriented, and they get their ego satisfaction from getting things done(maybe not the right things) tend to be blunt and are good delegators. While another group (%17) are Influencers and they get their ego satisfaction by controlling other people (politicians, Lawyers, Journ O lists, and used car salesmen. I put Newt in that category.

Re Abortion - I used to be a pro choicer - but then read a study how abortion is changing the gene pool in a negative way. I agree life exists upon conception. So I moved 170 degrees to pro life though choice should still be available with restrictions such as sonograms, counseling and sign off by the DNA proved father. And only in the first 3 months.

34 posted on 02/02/2012 8:51:07 AM PST by stubernx98 (cranky, but reasonable)
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To: stubernx98
Character Counts

Yes it does, and Romney just showed his character with


35 posted on 02/02/2012 11:10:47 AM PST by DannyTN
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To: stubernx98
Character Counts

Yes it does, and Romney just showed his character with


36 posted on 02/02/2012 11:11:07 AM PST by DannyTN
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