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Unless I bungled the point, Romney is able to better score over Obama because the supporters of the non-Romneys remain unable to coalesce around ONE non-Romney candidate.

Frankly, the modern primary seems to have been successfully co-opted into a divide and conquer process for us, and a straight line advantage for the RINO Establishment. They unite to project their candidate, whom they have drowned in cash, influence and well timed endorsements. We bicker between three or four other candidates, while their guy runs the creases. What a strategy.

"We bicker between three or four other candidates, while their guy runs the creases. What a strategy."

While true, there's at least been an opening for a conservative in this primary and the prior one. Fred Thompson simply didn't want to be President. And I believe, neither does Palin.

Unless I bungled the point, Romney is able to better score over Obama because the supporters of the non-Romneys remain unable to coalesce around ONE non-Romney candidate.

I'm not sure why the diffusion of support for conservative primary candidates would matter for any Republican's numbers against Obama. If someone supports Santorum over Gingrich, for example, does that mean that person is less likely to vote for Gingrich over Obama in November?

I'd be interested to see what percentage of Republicans would stay home, vote third party, or even vote for Obama rather than vote for each potential Republican nominee. I suspect the numbers are rather small.

I think Romney's performance against Obama is rather easily explained. Independents and moderates have soured on Obama, but that doesn't mean they're suddenly in love with conservative Republicans. Most of them are eager to vote against Obama so long as that doesn't mean voting for someone they like even less.

Candidates like Gingrich, Bachmann, Santorum, Paul, and Perry turn off significant portions of the moderate swing vote for various reasons. For whatever reason, Romney turns off far fewer of them.

I think it's inescapable right now that nominating someone other than Romney increases the chances that Obama will be re-elected. It may be a gamble that could pay off with a more conservative President, but it is still clearly a gamble.

I think we each need to make a sober assessment of whether its a gamble that is worth taking. I know I am giving the issue a lot of thought and, while I am still planning to vote for someone other than Romney, it isn't set in stone. Of course, the decision will likely have been made for me by the time I get to vote in April, or at least my options will be greatly reduced.

None of this is to say a good conservative candidate couldn't trounce Obama. Unfortunately, we don't really have one.