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Cain’s Assertion That He Could Win Over Black Voters Is Dismissed By Analysts
Washington Post ^ | November 25, 2011 | Vanessa Williams

Posted on 11/25/2011 9:27:38 AM PST by Steelfish

Cain’s Assertion That He Could Win Over Black Voters Is Dismissed By Analysts

Vanessa Williams November 24

Herman Cain’s turn atop the polls in the contest for the Republican presidential nomination captured the attention of journalists and pundits and sparked excitement among grass-roots conservative activists.

But is it really possible that he — a black man who overcame poverty in the segregated South to become a wealthy entrepreneur and front-runner in the GOP race — would be the one to bring African American voters back to their original political home?

Cain seems to think so. In a mailer sent to Iowa voters recently, the candidate says “as a descendent of slaves I can lead the Republican party to victory by garnering a large share of the black vote, something that has not been done since Dwight Eisenhower garnered 41 percent of the black vote in 1956.”

It is a proposition that was quickly dismissed by political scholars and analysts, including some members of Cain’s party. Although he has done better than any other black Republican presidential candidate in terms of attracting support, few believe Cain could snare a sizable number of black voters in a general election, especially against President Obama.

“If he’s talking about 41 percent of black voters in the Republican primary, he might be right,” Michael Dawson, an African American political science professor at the University of Chicago, said with a chuckle. But in a general election against President Obama, who got 95 percent of the black vote in 2008 and remains popular among African Americans, Dawson said Cain “would be lucky to get 10 percent” of the black vote.

Besides being remarkable for its optimistic electoral calculation, Cain’s claim is unusual because he has made no special effort to appeal directly to black voters.

(Excerpt) Read more at washingtonpost.com ...


TOPICS: News/Current Events
KEYWORDS: cain; hermancain
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1 posted on 11/25/2011 9:27:41 AM PST by Steelfish
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To: Steelfish

So a real, 100% black man, descended from slaves, a Christian and successful businessman can’t beat a proto-Muslim, half African disgrace to his office? Pull the other one, it’s got bells on it!


2 posted on 11/25/2011 9:31:03 AM PST by 2ndDivisionVet (You can't invade the US. There'd be a rifle behind every blade of grass.~Admiral Yamamoto)
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To: Steelfish

He can’t win them all over but he can win some over and that is more than any other republican in the race can do.


3 posted on 11/25/2011 9:31:34 AM PST by cripplecreek (Stand with courage or shut up and do as you're told.)
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To: Steelfish

Is this “THE” Vanessa Williams?


4 posted on 11/25/2011 9:32:48 AM PST by ken5050 (Support Admin Mods: Doing the tough, hard, dirty jobs that Americans won't do...)
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To: Steelfish
Cain’s claim is unusual because he has made no special effort to appeal directly to black voters.

Typical leftist media and Democrat thinking...minorities must be pandered to in order to gain their votes.

Cain is smarter than that. He's banking on the blacks who will see him for what he is, not empty promises.

GWB got 11% of the black vote in 2004; there's no reason to think Cain couldn't get 15-20%. I'll guarantee this: None of the other Republicans would get more than 7% (and that may be optimistic.)

5 posted on 11/25/2011 9:34:36 AM PST by buccaneer81 (ECOMCON)
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To: Steelfish

I don’t know why Cain would waste time and money reaching out to Black voters in the runup to the Republican primaries. How many Blacks are registered as Republican?


6 posted on 11/25/2011 9:34:36 AM PST by meatloaf (I've had it with recycling politicians in any way shape or form. Toss 'em out!)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

Well, in the state where I live, MD, you have to be a registered republican to vote on the GOP primary. Black registrations are 85% plus for the Dems, I think. So it may not help Cain much in this state for the primary.


7 posted on 11/25/2011 9:35:01 AM PST by battlecry
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To: ken5050

No.


8 posted on 11/25/2011 9:35:54 AM PST by Steelfish (ui)
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To: meatloaf

Open primaries in several states.


9 posted on 11/25/2011 9:35:57 AM PST by buccaneer81 (ECOMCON)
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To: cripplecreek

“He can’t win them all over but he can win some over and that is more than any other republican in the race can do.”

That’s a fact. And that will win him the election.


10 posted on 11/25/2011 9:36:16 AM PST by meatloaf (I've had it with recycling politicians in any way shape or form. Toss 'em out!)
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To: buccaneer81

He doesn’t have to get huge numbers of black votes to win in places like Michigan. Just pulling 2 or 3 percent more than Mitt Romney could end Romney’s race.

Obviously the race against Obama would be tougher but his chances against Obama here are better than anyone else.


11 posted on 11/25/2011 9:43:22 AM PST by cripplecreek (Stand with courage or shut up and do as you're told.)
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To: meatloaf

Its also our best chance of finally ending the race based politics once and for all.


12 posted on 11/25/2011 9:44:51 AM PST by cripplecreek (Stand with courage or shut up and do as you're told.)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet
So a real, 100% black man, descended from slaves, a Christian and successful businessman can’t beat a proto-Muslim, half African disgrace to his office?

I think Herman can beat Obama, but he won't pull the sort of support from black voters that he thinks he will. Maybe I'm just cynical because I used to be a black Democrat, but I just don't see him doing it.

Being a conservative Republican is a deal-breaker that trumps race for most black voters. It's going to take more than the election of a right-wing black president to shift a significant portion of blacks out of the slave party.

13 posted on 11/25/2011 9:46:03 AM PST by Windflier (To anger a conservative, tell him a lie. To anger a liberal, tell him the truth.)
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To: cripplecreek
Obviously the race against Obama would be tougher but his chances against Obama here are better than anyone else.

Far better.

14 posted on 11/25/2011 9:48:18 AM PST by buccaneer81 (ECOMCON)
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To: ken5050

“Is this “THE” Vanessa Williams?”

I had wondered the same.

Now that we know the answer is “no,” the actress is so very talented.

(Since I am not PC, I use the word “actress.”)


15 posted on 11/25/2011 9:51:33 AM PST by Gatún(CraigIsaMangoTreeLawyer) (")
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To: Steelfish

The author is an idiot.

No one in their right mind would waste time courting the Black vote for a Republican primary.

Cain is a businessman, and he won’t waste time where it won’t be productive. What is one of his mantras? “Start by working on the right problem.”

But if he gets the Republican nomination, then he’ll pull out all the stops and start courting the Black vote. Not before.


16 posted on 11/25/2011 9:54:09 AM PST by BagCamAddict (If Perry had been asked about the Cain 999 plan, he would have said: 9, 9, .......what?)
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To: Steelfish

2012, wouldn’t be the real value. The transformative value would be in having a Clarence Thomas constitutional conservative in the White House, with the loudest microphone in the world, and using it to lay waste to the Big Lie perpetuated by the left/media/race industry.

There can be no greater contribution to the conservative movement than that.


17 posted on 11/25/2011 9:55:14 AM PST by VinL (It is better to suffer every wrong, than to consent to wrong.)
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To: Steelfish

If Cain really believes he can draw more black voters to the GOP because he is black, then he’s just practicing another form of racism. That’s a shame.


18 posted on 11/25/2011 9:55:34 AM PST by Cyber Liberty (Cain = National Sales Tax; Perry = Amnesty for Illegals; Romney = Obamacare forever. Who's left?)
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To: Steelfish

Yeah...but it has you leftists at the WaPo nervous, hasn’t it!


19 posted on 11/25/2011 9:58:42 AM PST by Oldpuppymax
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To: meatloaf

Herman Cain does not have to reach out to Black voters, Herman Cain does not have to reach out to Hispanic voters, Herman Cain does not have to reach out to White voters, Herman Cain does not have to reach out to “All” minority voters!!!

Herman Cain simply has to reach out to “All” American voters, period!!! Enough Blacks, Hispanics, other minorities and overwhelmingly Whites, will support the Cain effort to “game change” America, tossing that “racism Jive” under the bus, freeing Blacks from the “Obama/Democrat/CBC/NAACP” economic slave plantation they have been kept on, and giving all Americans the same starting line of equality, opportunity, freedom, liberty, education and reward from hard work and indivdual effort!!!

Some liberal buffoon ranting that Cain will get very few minority votes is just plain hogwash!!! if Herman Cain garners the Pubbie POTUS nominee slot and gives the VP nod to Marco Rubio, Michelle Bachmann or Sarah Palin, Obama loses in a landslide and the current Democrat Party wil be just about devastated politically from any legislative effectivity whatsoever!!!


20 posted on 11/25/2011 10:00:34 AM PST by JLAGRAYFOX
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To: Windflier
I agree. Herman Cain would pull a small but hopefully significant percentage of votes from Obama. But it is naive to believe that he would be able to get more than that. It is not just that Obama is black. It is his party affiliation. I seriously can not think of anything that Obama could do or say that would significantly reduce Obama’s support among black voters. Nothing he has done or said thus far has made more than a tiny dent.
21 posted on 11/25/2011 10:00:57 AM PST by Nevadan
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To: buccaneer81

In 04 John Kerry won Michigan with 2,472,007 votes over Bush with 2,306,331 votes. That isn’t a huge spread that couldn’t be overcome (165,676 votes). Its also important to note that we stomped the democrats hard in 2010 and they didn’t pick up a single seat.

I overlook the 08 election simply because it was such a disgusting mess with the world’s most pathetic GOP candidate, rampant fraud, and a democrat portrayed as the messiah.

Things are very different this time including a severe crackdown on fraud, firm ID requirements, redistricting in GOP favor. Obama can’t afford to lose even one midwest state.


22 posted on 11/25/2011 10:04:22 AM PST by cripplecreek (Stand with courage or shut up and do as you're told.)
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To: cripplecreek
I overlook the 08 election simply because it was such a disgusting mess with the world’s most pathetic GOP candidate, rampant fraud, and a democrat portrayed as the messiah.

Very true. Honest texts 100 years from now will note that 2008 was an election that truly was conducted like a third world regime change.

23 posted on 11/25/2011 10:11:00 AM PST by buccaneer81 (ECOMCON)
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To: Steelfish

Make that “dismissed by the straw hat bosses on the dimoKKKRAT plantation”. Those are the ones making the analysis for the msm. Purely BS.


24 posted on 11/25/2011 10:12:52 AM PST by Parley Baer
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To: Nevadan
I seriously can not think of anything that Obama could do or say that would significantly reduce Obama’s support among black voters. Nothing he has done or said thus far has made more than a tiny dent.

I can think of one: If Larry Sinclair's allegations were proven true beyond a shadow of a doubt. Blacks would abandon Obama in droves, at the very least by sitting out the election.

25 posted on 11/25/2011 10:13:35 AM PST by buccaneer81 (ECOMCON)
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To: buccaneer81

If Herman Cain wants to “pander” to blacks, he has my blessing if he hammers away at reminding them that illegal immigration harms them most of all.


26 posted on 11/25/2011 10:17:08 AM PST by cripplecreek (Stand with courage or shut up and do as you're told.)
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To: cripplecreek

Great point. And tie it in with union support for those illegals.


27 posted on 11/25/2011 10:19:51 AM PST by buccaneer81 (ECOMCON)
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To: Steelfish

Not worth the effort. Most blacks, not all, are utterly brainwahsed if not utterly braindead. Just listen to Sean Hannity’s radio show for 5 minutes if you can...


28 posted on 11/25/2011 10:20:54 AM PST by chris37 (Heartless.)
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To: chris37

This is madness.

Herman Cain would not only garner less of the black vote than the other candidates, he would actually do the impossible task of bringing out more black voters for Obama than McCain did.

People who believe otherwise live in a fantasy world with no sense of the mindset of black voters in america today.

Black voters are just going to line-up to vote out the first African-American Democrat to put in a black Republican? Horsefeathers! Obama owns an approval rating is over 91% even TODAY (http://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=obama%20approval%20rating%20blacks&source=newssearch&cd=3&ved=0CDgQqQIwAg&url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.washingtonpost.com%2Fblogs%2Fpost-partisan%2Fpost%2Fcain-and-the-black-vote-wishful-thinking%2F2011%2F03%2F04%2FgIQAQQfHlN_blog.html&ei=EtzPTrLEFez22AXxtNG8BQ&usg=AFQjCNFTEUGxoS7qSXJWpe-UZ60Q5oIvlw).

Utterly ridiculous to make this gamble. Bet the nation on a roulette number and you’ll have better odds of being right.


29 posted on 11/25/2011 10:28:14 AM PST by TitansAFC (Cain's answer on how to handle illegals who broke FEDERAL law? Let the states take care of it. Punt!)
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To: buccaneer81
re: I can think of one: If Larry Sinclair's allegations were proven true beyond a shadow of a doubt. Blacks would abandon Obama in droves, at the very least by sitting out the election.

Refresh my memory. What allegations are you referring to?

30 posted on 11/25/2011 10:31:42 AM PST by Nevadan
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To: Nevadan

Obama’s homosexuality.


31 posted on 11/25/2011 10:39:13 AM PST by buccaneer81 (ECOMCON)
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To: TitansAFC
Herman Cain would not only garner less of the black vote than the other candidates, he would actually do the impossible task of bringing out more black voters for Obama than McCain did.

You are out of your mind.

32 posted on 11/25/2011 10:42:45 AM PST by buccaneer81 (ECOMCON)
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To: Cyber Liberty
If Cain

Two big words. :-)

33 posted on 11/25/2011 10:43:25 AM PST by writer33 (Mark Levin Is The Constitutional Engine Of Conservatism)
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To: TitansAFC

Yep, write them off.

They aren’t worth the effort or time, as far as I am concerned the only way to really deal with them is to let Mother Nature and Father Time deal with ‘em.

They are lost and not worth finding.


34 posted on 11/25/2011 10:47:08 AM PST by chris37 (Heartless.)
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To: buccaneer81
I still don't think that would matter. First of all, blacks would have to know about it. The MSM would never say anything about it, and most blacks are not tuning into Fox News. (Not that Fox would say much about it either). Then blacks would have to believe it. Most don't believe any of the negative evidence about Obama now. The race card would be played against any bringing forth the evidence. Then the question would be, would it actually bother them? I really don't think so. Democrats overwhelmingly support homosexual candidates. Why would this be any different?
35 posted on 11/25/2011 10:48:56 AM PST by Nevadan
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To: Steelfish
Basically it all boils down to this:

Cain’s Assertion That He Could Win Over Black Voters Is Dismissed By Analysts

That's the real headline.

36 posted on 11/25/2011 10:51:13 AM PST by Mygirlsmom ("Get ready for an aberration of historic proportions" ...H Cain.."to correct the last one" MGM)
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To: TitansAFC

” People who believe otherwise live in a fantasy world with no sense of the mindset of black voters in america today. “

Gloria Cain is a registered and active Democrat.
If Herman can’t convince her to become a Republican , what shot does he have with millions of strangers ?
Herman himself didn’t see the wisdom of joining the Republican Party until he was 50 and almost out of the business world.
Cain has said he has voted for Democrats in the past and he supported Bill Clinton in 1992.
Cain and the handful of black Republicans are the exception and will never be the rule until blacks themselves
decide the Republican way is the better way.


37 posted on 11/25/2011 10:51:38 AM PST by Wild Irish Rogue
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To: Nevadan
Democrats overwhelmingly support homosexual candidates.

Black culture despises homosexuality. In my state of Ohio, we had a Constitutional Amendment on the ballot to ban gay marriage. It passed with 68% of the vote total and 90% of the black vote.

Oh, did I mention? In that same election, GW Bush got 18% of the black vote. If not for that, it's likely Kerry would have won the presidency. Bush won Ohio by a total of just over 100,000 votes.

38 posted on 11/25/2011 10:57:11 AM PST by buccaneer81 (ECOMCON)
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To: Wild Irish Rogue

I’d just be happy if blacks would notice which political party was the KKK.


39 posted on 11/25/2011 11:00:31 AM PST by Cyber Liberty (Cain = National Sales Tax; Perry = Amnesty for Illegals; Romney = Obamacare forever. Who's left?)
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To: cripplecreek

Agreed.


40 posted on 11/25/2011 11:16:08 AM PST by Bigg Red (Maryland girl on the Cain Train)
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To: cripplecreek

I agree with you, there will be many black voters that will vote for Cain.


41 posted on 11/25/2011 11:18:20 AM PST by dforest
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To: TitansAFC

One thing is certain. Newt won’t be able to pull any black voters.

Cain will get quite a few. Those that like Alveda King and many conservative black people.


42 posted on 11/25/2011 11:22:25 AM PST by dforest
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To: Steelfish
Herman Cain

born December 13, 1945 in Memphis, TN (Meets the Jus Soli Requirement)

Parents were
Luther Cain Jr., born March 16, 1925 in TN, died March 29, 1982 in Atlanta, GA
Lenora Davis, born July 27, 1925 in GA, died August 20, 2005 in Atlanta, GA

Both parents were US Citizens at the time of his birth (Meets the Jus Sanguinis Requirement)

Herman Cain is a NATURAL BORN CITIZEN

”Herman

Barry Soetoro aka Barack Hussein Obama ISN'T!

Click on the cane, (No Pizza.)

43 posted on 11/25/2011 12:00:16 PM PST by ASA Vet (Natural-born citizens, are those born in the country, of parents who are citizens. De Vattel)
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To: Wild Irish Rogue
>>>>>.. Cain might believe he’ll garner a larger share of the black vote in a head-to-head match-up against President Obama, this month’s NBC/WSJ poll — which had an oversample of 400 African-American respondents — tells a different story.
In a hypothetical general election matchup, according to the poll, Obama gets support from 93 percent of African Americans, while Cain gets just 6 percent.
Against Romney, Obama performs similarly among black voters.

LINK

Since FDR Democrats have been hoodwinking many blacks with traditional and conservative backgrounds into voting for them. If Obama hoodwinked 96% of blacks to vote for him in 2012, Cain could get lucky and get 15%, even 20%. First he has to win the nomination.

44 posted on 11/25/2011 12:04:02 PM PST by Reagan Man ("In this present crisis, government is not the solution to our problem; government is the problem.")
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To: meatloaf
He is really the only one who can go into the Black Churches and speak directly to the issues. Who else can go eye ball to eye ball with any credibility to the black man and say you are worse off now with zer0 and it won't get any better.
He has more street credibility than Jackson, Sharpton or zer0.
He has a history of winning. He has one wife, and Gloria's sock puppet has vanished.
45 posted on 11/25/2011 12:15:16 PM PST by reefdiver ("Let His day's be few And another takes His office")
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To: Steelfish
Wow what an elitist pile this article is.

"Analysts, political insiders, and scholars say"

Well thank you experts for speaking for every black person in America. Guess that settles it.

They are terrified of Cain. Precisely because he would wake up some lifetime black Democrat voters and lure them out of the closet.
46 posted on 11/25/2011 12:16:22 PM PST by over3Owithabrain
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

Blacks prefer to vote for the oreo cookie if each package comes with a trinket or a prize.


47 posted on 11/25/2011 12:36:27 PM PST by PALIN SMITH (In a time of universal deceit, telling the truth is a revolutionary act.)
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To: buccaneer81
re: Black culture despises homosexuality. In my state of Ohio, we had a Constitutional Amendment on the ballot to ban gay marriage. It passed with 68% of the vote total and 90% of the black vote.

When issues are separated, as in the amendment you mentioned, yes, blacks will vote according to conviction. But when it comes to voting Democrat vs Republican, convictions appear to carry little weight. It is the same with abortion. Blacks have consistently been surveyed to be more pro-life than whites. But blacks consistently vote for candidates who are pro-abortion over candidates who are pro-life. When it comes to abortion, you can't get more extreme than Obama, who has totally supported late term and partial birth abortions. But his stand on abortion doesn't matter to the average black voter, even good church-going Christians.

48 posted on 11/25/2011 1:00:47 PM PST by Nevadan
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To: Nevadan
Read the rest of my post. Bush got 18% of the Ohio black vote BECAUSE of the anti-gay issue on the ballot. It drew enough independent and conservative blacks out who normally would have stayed home. Once in the booth, they voted for Bush.

Local pundits agreed that there was no other explanation for the unprecedented black vote for Bush.

Believe me, if it were a proven fact that Obama is gay, he would be a pariah in the black community.

49 posted on 11/25/2011 1:09:03 PM PST by buccaneer81 (ECOMCON)
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To: buccaneer81
But Bush was not running against a black candidate in the Democrat party. Do you really think that Bush would have received 18% of the black vote if Obama, who openly supports homosexual causes had been running? I don't think so.

I sincerely hope you are right in your assessment. I just am not seeing a diminishing of support for Obama among blacks. After 3 years of Obama and his destructive policies, his support among blacks is virtually the same. When I talk to my black friends and associates, they act like Obama has performed miracles in the past 3 years. They do not see any problems whatsoever with man. Any criticisms are quickly attributed to racism. That's it. No need to think about it. No need to hold Obama accountable for anything. He inherited all the problems, etc, etc, but has done an amazing job and should be reelected.

50 posted on 11/25/2011 1:36:14 PM PST by Nevadan
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